MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.27. SX2 is down 10 cents and near 12.69. SMZ is near 352.0. BOZ is near 60.64. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.33. CZ2 is down 2 cents and near 5.18. WZ is up 7 cents and near 7.33. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 7.21. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 9.10.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Stall in Crude rally may be weighing on grains. Financial, currency, energy and commodity markets awaiting Fed comments. Spread of Delta virus could slow US/World economy. There remains a job shortage in key industries.
Global corn, small grain, soybean and wheat yields are unch from 2017 at 3.7 mt/ha. 2000 2.9. Yields determined by soil type, rain, temps and technology. Lack of increase demand higher 2022 acres.
Non US corn exports production down to 187 mmt vs 197 ly. World corn demand up 22 mmt yoy. Weekly US wheat export sales 200-600 mt, soybeans 1,000-2,000, corn 250-1,000.
Key to 21/22 corn prices farmer selling, China export demand; soybean, SA weather and China demand. SD rains and forecast for mor in MN, WI and IA could add soybean bushels there. SA and Russia dry. Near record heat index could stress crops in KS, NE, MO, IL, IN. Yield models est US SB 49, corn 174.
Central Illinois crop survey estimates corn yield at new record 228 bpa vs 203 last year. Tropical storm could hit US Delta next Wed-Thur. Could drop 4.00-9.00 inches of rain. Slow harvest. EU and Black Sea wheat rally slowed from multi year highs. US SRW export prices lower vs French. Russia wheat farmers selling cash in front of large tax increase burden to exporters.
Supply and demand balance suggest good SX support near 13.00, CZ 5.50, KWZ 7.00. Dalian SB, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil prices higher, corn lower. USDA est China 2022 hog crop lower.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 2,000 soymeal and bought 7,000 soybeans; 4,000 soyoil and 7,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 SRW Wheat; long 273,000 Corn; net long 96,000 Soybeans; net long 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 70,000 lots of soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.