Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are quietly mixed. SN is down 7 cents and near 17.22. SX is near 15.36. SMN is near 413.3. BON is near 81.12. CN is down 1 cent and near 7.29. CZ is near 6.92. WN is up 6 cents and near 10.64. KWN is up 11 cents and near 11.55. MWN is up 12 cents and near 12.12.
US Dollar is marginally lower. Crude is marginally lower. US stocks are lower before US jobs report. Gold and copper are lower.
US central and south plains and Midwest forecast calls for normal rains. US north plains drier but rains return next week. Could be some needed rains on France rest of EU turning drier. Argentina and north China plains remain dry. Rains forecast for Russia and Ukraine.
Soybeans are lower. China is on holiday. Malaysian palmoil is lower. Soybean have been supported by increase US old crop soybean export buying, concern of lower US acres and Managed fund liquidation of short soybean and long corn positions. Weekly soybean export sales are est near 100-400 mt old crop and 100-600 mt new. Argentina raised their soybean crop to 43.3 mmt vs 42.0. Brazil farmer selling increased.
July corn will close the lowest weekly close in 2 months. Improved US Midwest weather has triggered fund liquidation of a long corn and short soybean position. This was a big trade after USDA March acreage report. Argentina corn harvest 32 pct with crop rated 15 pct G/E vs 49 last year. A decision on Ukraine export and USDA WASDE report next week key to prices.
Wheat futures are higher. Futures are trying to claw back from recent selloff due to concern about US and Canada spring wheat acres/crop, dry north China plains weather and fact this week Egypt and Algeria paid record high prices for wheat. There is a disconnect between record high World wheat prices and US futures. What if Russia does not allow Ukraine exports.
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