Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 14 cents and near 13.68. SMH is near 430.3. BOH is near 45.52. CH is up 9 cents and near 5.43. WH is up 5 cents and near 6.51. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.31. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 13 cents; HRW up 27; HRS up 26; Corn is up 58 cents; Soybeans up 57 cents; Soymeal up $1.00, and; Soyoil up 315 points. Crushing margins are down $0.21 at $0.79; Oil share is up 1% at 34%
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 6 yuan in soybeans, down 26 in Corn, down 22 in Soymeal, up 16 in Soyoil, and up 20 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 101 ringgit at 3,489 (basis April) on talk Indonesia hikes export tariffs.
All Wheat sales are up 6%, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase, Corn up 126%, shipments up 81% (USDA) up 43%, Soybeans up 83%, shipments up 80% (USDA up 33%) and Soymeal down 2%, shipments up 18% (USDA up 1%)
Argentina rated soybean crop 18 pct G/E vs 66 ly. Crop 46 mmt vs USDA 48. Farmer sales 6.6 mmt vs 13.2 ly. Argentina corn crop rated 22 G/E vs 59 ly. Farmer sales 14 mmt vs 18.7 ly. Farmer wheat sales 9.2 vs 15.4 ly. Brazil soybean vessel line up 9 mmt. 70 vessels waiting to load Russia wheat, Still no clear guess on final Russia wheat exports. Russia taxing wheat exports. Ukraine livestock groups want corn exports slowed. Argentina considering higher export tax on corn, wheat, soybean and soymeal. World vegoil demand higher than supply.
China appetite for corn and soybeans increasing.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 SRW Wheat; bought 2,000 Corn; net sold 12,000 Soybeans; sold 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; long 392,000 Corn; net long 146,000 Soybeans; net long 66,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 107,000 Soyoil.
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