Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 15 cents and near 16.87. SX is near 15.15. SMN is near 436.8 BON is near 84.77. CN is up 1 cent and near 8.02. CZ is near 7.44. WN is down 6 cent and near 10.88. KWN is down 6 cents and near 11.58. MWN is down 3 cents and near 11.85.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, coffee and sugar are lower. Copper, silver, cocoa and cotton are higher.
Russia advance on south Ukraine export ports could limit Ukraine corn exports. Key W Ukraine bridge was destroyed. This key rail and truck line for Ukraine grain exports to EU and military imports to Ukraine. US Dollar is making new highs. Russia announced they have stopped gas to Poland and Bulgaria. Crude is near $102 and held key support near $99. This also helped support GSI commodity index near 726.
Soybean futures continues to add demand premium. Nearby soybean board crush margin is near 213. US domestic cash crush margins are near 300. US soybean export prices are competitive August forward into 2023. China soymeal stocks are down 50 pct from last year but China soybean imports lag pace to reach USDA goal. USDA may be forced to lower China soybean imports again on May 12. BON is over 84 cents. Soyoil as pct of crush is near 49 pct. World new crop canola futures are higher on lower estimate of Canada 2022 acres.
Chicago July wheat is near 10.88, KWN is near 11.58 and MWN is near 11.86. Chicago wheat bounced higher despite no export business and higher US SRW crop ratings. KWN continues to be supported by lower US HRW crop ratings and a dry and warm US south plains weather forecast. MWN was the lagger on Tuesday due to higher Canada 2022 acres. Still, US north plains forecast is cool and wet. West Canada prairie is dry, east is wet and cold.
July corn is near 8.00. Dec is near 7.44. Corn futures support by talk of higher fuel demand and potential for higher corn export demand. Some have now dropped Brazil corn crop to 108 mmt or down 9 mmt from USDA. Ukraine corn exports are in doubt. US corn plantings are off to slow start. US corn planted after mid-May could see lower yield potential. US farmer has slowed new crop corn sales until the crop is planted.
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