Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 3 cents and near 13.31. SMZ is near 425.4. BOZ is near 50.75. CZ is unch and near 4.74. WZ is unch and near 5.66. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 6.40. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.08. US stocks are marginally lower after Thursdays gains. US Dollar is unch after Thursdays losses. Crude is unch. Gold is higher.
Soybean futures are higher. SF is 7 week high. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and North Brazil forecast is drier. There is talk that China either has interest in US Feb gulf soybean or actually bought US. US soybean prices are competitive Dec forward. US soybean export commit is near 855 mil bu down 28 pct vs last year. Weekly US soymeal export sales were lower than expected but still 40 pct above ly. USDA est Brazil crop up 7 mmt (260 mil bu) vs ly and US carryout is 220. Lower Brazil crop tightens World supply. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher.
Corn futures are unch but lowest weekly close since Sep,2021. There remains concern about slow demand for US corn. Weekly US corn export were lower than hoped. US corn export commit is near 720 mil bu and up 26 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of a 22 pct increase. Most of US Midwest is dry. Some fear that USDA could increase US corn yield on their November report. There is some concern that US could shutdown Nov 17 which could make this report last USDA until Congress increasing spending and debt.
Wheat futures are mixed. EU rains are slowing plantings. There is new concern about Ukraine export flow. US wheat export commit is down 7 pct ly vs USDA forecast of a 8 pct drop. Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export. Managed funds remain big short in Chicago futures with no new news to liquidate.
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