Written Commentary
CLOSING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The last two days have erased Wednesday’s losses on the soybean board, rallying over 30 cents from the lows at 947’0 March futures. Values may test the 50 day MA near 1004’2 and reevaluate the current global situation heading into the new year. China will need to step in a buy some beans, likely a small 130K MT purchase or two before year end. Then it will be about how little they can buy before the Brazilian crop comes off. If the new Trump administration forces China to buy US beans by threatening tariffs on other goods like EVs, there is a chance we don’t see another heavy sell off. As it stands today, there is not much to get excited about in the bean market. Corn looks the most optimistic and as long as we can suppress the rumors of +90 million planted acres in the US next year, then there is a chance we see board strength. Wheat is loosing global competitiveness with a strong US dollar but a supported corn market could allow for wheat to follow suit.
Christmas Holiday, 12/24-26th
Tues 12/24, Truncated day session, 12:05 pm CST close
Wed 12/25, Day and evening market closed
Thurs 12/26, Normal day session, 8:30 am CST open and 1:20pm close
New Years holiday, 12/31-1/2nd
Tues 12/31, Normal session
Wed 1/1, Day and evening market closed
Thurs 1/2, Normal day session, 8:30 am CST open and 1:20 pm CST close
The Commitment of Traders Disaggregated Report below shows managed money sold corn and soyoil length and extended their short positions in soybeans and soybean meal. They covered some KC wheat shorts and covered canola shorts.
The Economist Magazine’s newest cover photo has a whole bunch to unpack. I thought it was an interesting view and artistic interpretation of the state of the world. It reminds me of the Mark Twain quote “I’ve had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
Calendar Spreads
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CH25/CK25 | -5 1/2 | 0 | -21 | 26% |
SF25/SH25 | -4 3/4 | -1 1/4 | -25 3/4 | 18% |
SH25/SK25 | -8 3/4 | – 1/4 | -26 1/2 | 33% |
SF24/SN25 | -23 1/2 | -1 1/2 | -78 3/4 | 30% |
MWH25/MWK25 | -8 | – 1/4 | -20 1/4 | 40% |
WH25/WK25 | -9 3/4 | +3/4 | -15 3/4 | 62% |
KWH25/KWK25 | -7 3/4 | 0 | -16 | 48% |
Cost of Carry
No new data.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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