Written Commentary
CLOSING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
Rain relief in Argentina is becoming more likely in most growing areas. As Brazil begins to cut their bean crop in the northern regions of Mato Grosso, the US export market will start to feel the headwinds from the additional global supplier. Export sales were higher than expected ranges for corn wheat and soybean oil last week, soybeans were on par, and soybean meal was reported below expectations. Canada has stamped it’s approval of a $34 billion merger between Bunge and Viterra. Conditions include the divestiture of six grain elevators in Western Canada, Bunge’s commitment to invest $362 million in Canada within the next 5 years, and Bunge will have controls on their minority stake in Saudi-owned grain company G3. The soybean and canola oil industry is optimistic due to anticipated increases in biofuel demand. In other Canadian news, the Canadian government is preparing to retaliate against Trump with tariffs of their own, on over $105 billion worth of US products. The US exported 12% of their ethanol production last year, and last year Canada purchased about 37% of total US ethanol exports. The US pork, poultry and beef exports to Canada would also be effected by new Canadian tariffs. Justin Trudeau said in a press conference, “Everything is on the table.” The Government has also made clear they will wait to see what Trump does. Inauguration is on Monday, we may not know for another 4-8 days.
The Amount of Time the US Dollar has been above today’s ~109 value on the index in the last 50 years: 3.5 years in the 1980s (January 1982 – July 1986), 2 years from July of 2000 to July of 2002, and less than 3 months between August and October of 2022
The Canadian Dollar still trading below 70¢ in relation to the US dollar. The currencies were trading near these levels in March of 2020 following the COVID pandemic and January of 2016 following the election of Donald Trump.
Soybean Oil Exports crop year to date of 1.447 billion lbs already represents over 90% of the revised USDA estimate of 1.6 billion lbs.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
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EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
The USDA reported two sales this morning. 132K MT of soybeans to China, the third flash sale to China this week. The second US sale was 135K MT of corn sold to Taiwan.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 69 ringgit overnight, at 4298.
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