Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The Chinese offshore yuan dipped to the lowest levels since October 2022. The yuan dipped to 14¢ or 7.3698 yuan per US dollar. The Japanese yen dipped below 0.0064 recently which was a 5 month low, the South Korean won at it’s weakest level in 15 years partly due to their political issues, and the Vietnamese dong also fell to record lows against the dollar. The Chinese stock market started the 2025 year off with a -2.6% decline, the worst start since 2016. China’s 10-year treasury note fell to a record low 1.65%. Their recent stimulus package has not been able to boost consumer demand. The US dollar reached over 108.70 on the index.
Weather:
Light trade on Tuesday allowed for a strong close in grains. The US farmer is 60-65% sold for corn and 60% sold for beans. Rewarding these small rallies may be more appealing to those waiting for the new year due to tax reasons. Corn has been supported by both ethanol and exports, but is nearing the top side of a 1 year trade range and could meet resistance if news of increasing corn acres in the US breaks. Of course the USDA WASDE report next Friday could offer a temporary floor if they lower US corn ending stocks. South America is cooking a massive bean crop thanks to Brazil and despite Argentina’s dryer than normal weather. SA beans that were planted early are expected to hit the global market by mid February. Wheat is still very exposed to the results of the Ukraine/Russia war and the result of that conflict following Trumps inauguration.
Export & World News
Bangladesh is looking to purchase up to 100K MT of rice in an international tender. Jordan is slooking to buy 120K MT of wheat for Feb/March shipment.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 115 ringgit overnight, at 4333.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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