Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI report will release this morning at 9am. Expectations indicate a continued contraction of the Manufacturing industry. In the last two years there has only been one month, April 2024, that reported a industry expansion value above 50.0. These long term contractions usually follow economic crisis.
Ag Fundamentals:
Weekly export sales were weak this morning. Seems estimates set there expectations for the week way too high, not considering it was a major Holiday week. Soybean oil lead the way with higher than expected exports, supported mostly by India’s purchase. Commitment of Traders report will not be out until Monday. Funds have supported the corn market with a 170K+ contract long position, up over 400K contracts from their record short. Expectations are that funds sold 7-10K soybean caks, 2K-3K soybean oil caks and 2K-4K wheat caks. Soybean meal could see some short covering. Stone X is suggesting the Brazilian crop could be as high as 171 million MT. Between Brazil and Argentina, South America is estimated to produce 221 million MT of soybeans (a little less than 100MT more than the US).
Manufacturing PMI Report is expected to continue the industry’s retraction. Only one month in the last two years expressed industry expansion, April 2024.
Min temps on January 8th can be seen below. If you live south of the Missouri/Tennessee, drive safe. Too often when storms reach far enough south to ice the roads that lack the salt truck support, we see misfortune on the roadways.
Snowfall Between Now and Monday Morning:
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 140,600 | 200K-500K | 0 | 0-75K |
Corn | 777,000 | 800K-1,400K | 0 | 0-50K |
Beans | 484,700 | 500K-1,200K | 0 | 0-100K |
Meal | 203,800 | 150K-350K | 0 | 0-50K |
Soyoil | 38,100 | 5K-30K | 0 | 0-10K |
Export & World News
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 35 ringgit overnight, at 4368.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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