Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Trump is starting to announce plans and appointees for his upcoming presidential term. So far he has appointed Susie Wiles to be his White House chief of staff. She will be the first woman in history to hold the position. Of course we have heard about Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and rumors of RFK Jr. on the short list for head Human Heath Services and heavily involved with the USDA. Late yesterday night, Trump announced Tom Homan as the new “border czar”. Tom was the former acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Tom Homan supports the zero tolerance policy and as president elect Trump says in his announcement, will be “in charge of the deportation of illegal aliens back to their country of origin”.
Macroeconomics:
Happy Veterans Day, thank a service member. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are open today, banks are closed and commodity crop reports will be delayed until tomorrow. The Dow and S&P are hitting all time highs this morning and oil is lower at $68.66 per barrel. Many wondering how long the Trump trade euphoria will last following lasts week’s surge in equity markets. Crypto also riding the optimistic train to all time highs. Crop progress reports will be moved back to tomorrow. Winter wheat areas that were lacking rain, received recent showers so many expect conditions to improve.
Ag Fundamentals:
The WASDE report and commitment of traders report on Friday offered support for both corn and beans. Bean production took some air out of their record yield sails, lowering production and ending stocks. Corn also lowered production while leaving exports and usage unchanged, this may leave the door open for bullish arguments for action in corn demand numbers.
Weather:
Most of the Midwest, Minnesota, and mid south will receive 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7 days. Between now and late November, weather in North and South America should not be an issue. River levels are back up above efficient levels creating better opportunity for export competition.
Mato Grosso in now ahead of their 5-year planting pace. They have basically planted 90% of their bean crop in 38 days.
Southern Argentina is the only growing area that may have some dry concerns in the 10-day precipitation forecast.
Export & World News
South Korea purchased 65K MT of animal feed wheat in a private deal today.
Malaysian palm oil futures oil prices were up 95 ringgit, at 5196.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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