Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 4 cents and near 14.17. SX is up 3 cents and near 12.72. SMK is near 407.2. BOK is near 53.35. CK is up 1 cent and near 5.54. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.87. WK is down 1 cent and near 6.16. KWK is down 1 cent and near 5.61. MWK is unchanged and near 6.07. US stocks are marginally lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 51 ringgit at 3,790 (basis June) at midsession tracking rival vegoils, improving India demand. China vegoil prices were higher. Soybean and soymeal prices were lower.
Rains today are forecasted in MN and SE. US 6-19 day forecast calls for normal temps and rains. Brazil is mostly dry while Argentina could see more rains. Argentina rains could slow harvest.
For the week, Wheat exports are running unchanged versus down 1% a week ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year, Corn up 84% (up 86% last week); USDA up 46% and Soybeans up 71% (up 72% last week) with the USDA up 34% on the year.
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 53% good to excellent versus 62% a year ago. U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 3% versus 3% a year ago, 2% average. U.S. Corn planted was 2% versus 2% last year, and 2% average.
Brazil soybean harvest is near 78 pct. March Brazil soybean exports were near 14.8 mmt vs 10.9 ly. April exports are near 1.9 mmt with vessel line up near 14 mmt. Last years April exports were near 14.9 mmt.
Brazil soybean exports prices are lower on lack of new China buying. US soybean exports are 89 pct of USDA goal. Will USDA lower South America crops Friday, raise US demand and lower US carryout?
Brazil weather is still dry. US corn plantings are 3 pct vs 2 average. On Friday, USDA need to increase China corn imports 5 mmt to 29, increase US exports 200 mil bu, increase US domestic demand and lower US 2020/21 corn carryout to 1,200. Will that be enough to push corn prices higher into favorable US spring weather forecast? USDA May US 2021/22 S/D could be even tighter.
USDA is not expected to make many changes to US/World 2020/21 S/D on Friday. US plains are dry. US rated the US 2021 winter wheat crop at 53 pct G/E vs 62 ly. Wheat price may follow corn to limit feeding. Wheat up to weather and Russia export policy.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 7,000 Corn; net bought 5,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 420,000 Corn; net long 171,000 Soybeans; long 66,000t Soymeal, and; net long 97,000 Soyoil.
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