Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 1 cent and near 14.01. SMK is near 401.7. BOK is near 52.73. CK is down 3 cents and near 5.48. WK is up 2 cents and near 6.15. KWK is unchanged and near 5.67. Normal US spring weather could keep futures range bound. US stocks are lower. There is some concern about Bank profits after surprise liquidation of some large hedge funds. Crude is lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 14 cents; HRW down 17; HRS down 12; Corn was down 3 cents; Soybeans down 12 cent; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil up 160 points. Crushing margins were down 11 cents at $0.49 (July); Oil share unchanged at 38%. US Ag Sec wants to reopen CRP. There is 20.7 mil acres in CRP. 3.0 mil will expire this fall. 4.0 mil in 2022. Congress limit is 27.0.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 24 yuan in soybeans, down 41 in Corn, down 9 in Soymeal, down 168 in Soyoil, and down 180 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 46 ringgit at 3,646 (basis June) at midsession following rival vegoils.
Argentina bottom line looks quite favorable for crops and fieldwork during the next two weeks. Brazil should be mostly very good as long as rain resumes late next week and into the following weekend as advertised.
Sufficient moisture and warming is expected over the next couple of weeks to stimulate some fieldwork from the lower Midwest into the Delta and southeastern states. Some planting will also begin for early season crops in the northern Plains, but only if significant rain falls and that remains questionable since the advertised event is a week away for the northern Plains.
Soybean futures have traded lower on increase Brazil harvest and switch of World soybean demand to Brazil. USDA stocks and acreage report this week will be key to nearby prices. Trade est US March 1 stocks at 1,543 mil bu vs 2,255 ly. Range is 1,440-1,825. Trade est US 2021 soybean acres at 90.0 vs 83.0 ly. Range 86.1-91.6. Tightening US old crop supplies should push prices higher.
Corn futures remain in a tight range between 5.40 and 5.60. Prices are near 20 and 50 day moving average support. Trade est US March 1 stocks at 7,767 mil bu vs 7,952 ly. Range is 7,573-7,980. Trade est US 2021 corn acres at 93.2 vs 90.8 ly. Range 92.0-94.5. Tightening US old crop supplies should push prices higher. CBOT grain will be closed Friday for holiday. Brazil remain dry which could lower their supply. This suggest US and Ukraine 2021 weather may need to be prefect or prices move higher.
Wheat futures have trended lower on better US and EU weather. Futures are near key support. Trade est US March 1 stocks at 1,272 mil bu vs 1,415 ly. Range is 1,227-1,405. Trade est US 2021 all wheat acres at 45.0 vs 44.3 ly. Range 43.0-46.4. WW 31.8 vs 30.4 ly. SW 11.6 vs 12.2 ly.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 11,000 Corn; net sold 16,000 Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 14,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 380,000 Corn; net long 138,000 Soybeans; net long 61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 70,000 Soyoil.
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