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Cocoa May Still Need Market Consolidation


While the Ivory Coast region will shift back into a dry weather pattern this week, recent rainfall over West African growing areas are thought to improve their mid-crop production outlook which weighed on cocoa prices. Earlier in the session, indications that tensions between Ukraine and Russia were being dialed back provided a boost to the cocoa market as that can help to shore up near-term demand prospects.


Coffee prices were able to find their footing and avoid a fourth negative daily result in a row. Although it received fresh bullish supply/demand news, coffee’s correction may not be done just yet as the market may still be vulnerable to a further correction. The Brazilian currency rallied to a new 5-month high which provided coffee with carryover support as its recent rally eases pressure on Brazil’s farmers to market their remaining near-term supply.


May cotton closed slightly higher on the session yesterday with a small range. The dollar was lower and the stock market higher, but neither of these moves did much to support cotton, which was consolidating Monday’s losses. Oil prices were lower, which is negative to cotton.


Sugar prices continue to grind their way to the downside and are within striking distance of a new 6 1/2 month low. The market continues to hold its ground above the January lows in spite of severe weakness in a key outside market, and that could set the stage for a sizable recovery move if global risk sentiment continues to improve.

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