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Cocoa Needs Better Demand Tone


Ongoing concern with near-term demand prospects have weighed on the cocoa market this week, with Russia invasion of Ukraine impacting the European demand outlook while expanding COVID lockdowns in China casting a shadow over the Asian demand outlook. In addition, a rebound in the Eurocurrency and British Pound provided carryover support that lifted cocoa prices well clear of the early lows.


If global risk sentiment continues to improve, coffee may be in position to bounce. Rising ICE exchange coffee stocks have weighed on prices as that could indicate global export bottlenecks may be easing.


The close above 121.83 for May cotton is a bullish technical development. The market was supported by a sharply lower dollar and rallies in equities and crude oil yesterday, as well as another strong week for export sales. There is plenty of rain for central and eastern Texas in the 1-5 day forecast models, but little rain for West Texas.


A sizable recovery move in crude oil and RBOB gasoline prices provided significant carryover support to the sugar market as they can help to shore up ethanol demand in Brazil and India. In addition, the Brazilian currency extended its rally for a second day which also boosted sugar prices as that eases pressure on Center-South mills to produce sugar for the global export market.

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