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Coffee Supply Fundamentals Back Up


Cocoa prices have seen 4 rallies and 3 pullbacks of more than 200 points in size since the start of this year, but will begin this week with only a 9 point gain for the first quarter. With demand uncertainly continuing to weigh on market sentiment, cocoa prices could continue to see long liquidation.


In addition to La Nina, Brazil’s Arabica coffee growers had to deal with frost events last July that are expected to affect production for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons. Recent strength in the Brazilian currency should also keep coffee prices remain fairly well supported on near-term pullbacks. For the week, May coffee finished with a gain of 1.80 cents (up 0.8%) which broke a 5-week losing streak.  The Brazilian currency reached a new 2-year high which provided carryover support to the coffee market.


May cotton closed limit-up on Friday and up sharply this morning. Strong demand and a long-term drought in Texas have raised concerns about supply. Traders are citing drought concerns in Texas as a main driver for the recent rally, as well as strong demand.


A stronger Brazilian currency has eased pressure on Center-South mills to process cane into sugar, which is exported and paid-for in foreign currencies. La Nina negatively impacted the 2021/22 Center-South cane crop, and should reduce sugar yields for the 2022/23 crop which will begin harvesting next month.

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