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Copper Market Surprising Rally


We are surprised that gold is tracking higher this morning in the face of an upside breakout/extension in the dollar. A flight to quality buying mentality remains in place into very critical US economic data this morning. From the supply front, it should be noted that the national union of mines in South Africa voted for a strike at a Sibanye-Stillwater mine.


While the threat of disrupted Russian palladium supply flow remains the key bullish catalyst, word of a strike at a South African mine adds to the potential supply disruption threat. Therefore, it is not surprising to see June Palladium forge another higher high and seemingly on a path to trade above $2,900 in the days ahead. The platinum market continues to lag the palladium rally which is not surprising considering the lack of bullish buzz in the market over the last 2 weeks.


The copper market as exploded again overnight with a surprising rally pushing prices to fresh contract highs. We assume the primary driving force for the bull camp is the prospect of crimped supply flow from Russia, but with Chile posting a 7% decline in monthly copper production yesterday, the supply side of the equation is doubly bullish. It should be noted that the biggest shortfalls in Chilean monthly copper production came from its largest mining facilities.

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