Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 3 cents and near 16.89. SX is near 15.19. SMN is near 425.8. BON is near 80.91. CN is unch and near 7.86. CZ is near 7.36. WN is up 16 cents and near 12.06. KWN is up 15 cents and near 12.91. MWN is up 19 cents and near 13.18.
US stocks are lower. S&P 500 is nearing 20 pct drop from highs which some define as a bear market. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and sugar are higher. Copper, coffee and cocoa are lower.
US Midwest, north plains and Canada will see rains this week. This could slow final plantings but bears feel this will add moisture to US Midwest soils. Rains will also fall across US south plains. EU is dry. Argentina could see some rain. Australia rains is slowing fieldwork.
Corn futures are lower overnight after USDA estimated US corn plantings higher than expected at 72 pct. Still this is below last year and average. IL is 78, IA 86, MN 60 and ND 20. 39 pct of the crop is emerged vs 61 ly. May not be a lot of 2022 corn available for Sep contract. US corn exports are near 1,608 mil bu or down 13 pct last year. There remains high demand for ethanol production and exports. Some report US gulf fall elevations may be sold out. US farmer is not selling. There was talk that China may have bought 200-400 mt Brazil corn to offset lack of Ukraine corn exports. Market assumes China will drop quality restrictions for Brazil corn.
Wheat futures are higher. WN is back near 12.07. Resistance is near 12.50. KWN is back near 12.88. Resistance is near 13.00. MWN is back near 13.18. Resistance is near 13.50. USDA estimated US spring wheat plantings at 27 pct or lowest on record. ND is 27 vs 93 ly. USDA rated US WW crop 28 pct G/E vs 27 last week and 47 last year. KS is 25, OK is 10, MO 69, WA 61. Bangladesh is tendering for wheat. Only one offer at $548 vs $400 in April. EU dropped their wheat crop rating for the 2nd straight week due to dryness.
Soybean are now higher following Mondays selloff. Soybeans traded lower after US President said the US will US troops to defend Taiwan against China. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 50 pct vs 73 last year. IL is 62, IA 69, MN 32, AR 71 and ND 7. US soybean exports are near 1,805 mil bu or down 12 pct last year. There remains high demand for US crush and export. China may have bought Brazil soybeans. Brazil June fob is +164, July +174. Some report US gulf fall soybean elevations may be sold out. Argentina soybean crush margins are +225. This is increasing crush and lower exports.
China announced a onetime $1.5 billion subsidy for individuals and companies involved in crop production.
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