Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 2 cents and near 16.93. SX is near 15.16. SMN is near 425.0. BON is near 80.29. CN is down 3 cents and near 7.79. CZ is near 7.33. WN is down 7 cents and near 11.93. Overnight range was 11.82-12.08. KWN is down 10 cents and near 12.85. Overnight range was 12.77-13.00. MWN is down 7 cents and near 13.23. Overnight range was 13.15 to 13.30.
US stocks are higher after China unexpectedly dropped home mortgage interest rates. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee and sugar are higher.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Long liquidation and profit taking continues after CN rejected key price level. Argentina estimated corn harvest near 27 pct with crop rated 17 pct G/E vs 47 ly. Argentina continues to estimate their corn crop near 49 mmt vs USDA 53. Argentina lifted corn export cap from 30 mmt to 35 vs USDA est of 39. Argentina farmer has sold only 24 mmt to date. Market continue to be concerned about Ukraine corn exports after Russia rejected UN effort to open Ukraine exports. US corn export commit is near 2,350 mil bu vs USDA export est of 2,400. USDA new crop sales of 220 mil bu is record high for this week. More US Midwest rains through this weekend. NOAA 90 day forecast is warm and dry for US plains and WCB.
Nearby soybean futures continue to trade higher. Consumer buying is helping soymeal. Soyoil down on talk of Indonesia lifting palmoil export ban but overnight Indonesia announced domestic market sales requirements and could slow exports. China domestic soymeal sales remain high. There is talk China increased buying June and July Brazil soybean cargoes and US August. US soybean export commit is near 2,175 mil bu down 3 pct vs ly vs USDA forecast of a 5.5 pct drop. US new crop export commit is record high. Argentina soybean harvest is near 85 pct done. Crop is rated only 10 pct G/E vs ly record low of 8 pct.
Wheat futures continue to trend lower despite word that Russia rejected UN proposal to open Ukraine grain exports. There remains concern about Russia escalation of the Ukraine war and attacks on Ukraine port facilities. Profit taking and long liquidation continues in front of US HRW harvest. Annual crop tour est KS yield near 39.7 vs USDA 39.0 but est the crop near 216 mil bu vs USDA 217 and 364 ly. US wheat export demand remain below USDA estimate.
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