Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 6 cents and near 13.96. SX is up 5 cents and near 12.79. SMK is near 395.8. BOK is near 53.55. CK is up 2 cents and near 5.82. CZ is up 5 cents and near 5.09 and new highs. WK is up 6 cents and near 6.35. KWK is up 6 cents and near 5.90. MWK is up 4 cents and near 6.53. US stocks are mixed in front of US Banks earnings. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 8 yuan in soybeans, up 21 in Corn, down 20 in Soymeal, up 128 in Soyoil, and up 114 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 21 ringgit at 3,705 (basis June) at midsession weakened by rising output, container shortage hampering exports.
US CPI index was up in March. Crude is near $60 vs recent high near 70 on talk OPEC production increase will be absorb by higher demand, gas prices are sharply higher, lumber prices making new highs, Dec corn made new highs, Soyoil is back over 53 vs recent high near 58, Chicago wheat is near 6.35 and highest since 2014, coffee highest since 2016, cocoa trend for 2020 highs, sugar trending for 2019 high, OJ trending toward 2020 high, cattle highest since 2016, hogs making new highs, Canada canola futures making new highs, milk up from 2020 lows and testing key resistance. China aluminum prices at 10 year highs on cut in production. Increase US vaccinations should help economy despite JJ setback. US Dollar is lower.
US Midwest 6-10 day weather suggest cold temps and below normal rains. Brazil dry. Argentina wet.
Soyoil prices firm on talk that US summer soybean crush could drop due to low soybean supplies. US March NOPA soybean crush could be record high. World soymeal prices continue lower. Brazil soybean prices continue to firm. Soyoil prices lower after they dropped blend from B13 to B10. There is talk that steady rains has reduced Argentina harvested soybean acres and soybean quality
Matif new crop rapeseed futures trade higher on freeze damage concerns. Canada futures new highs.
Dry weather in Brazil pushing domestic corn prices higher. Talk of Argentina exports to Brazil.
Matif corn futures tending higher and 6 month highs and following higher wheat prices.
Russia troop build up on Ukraine border is raising concern about Ukraine corn and wheat supplies.
Weekly US ethanol production should be up from last week. Stocks marginally higher.
Matif wheat futures up and 3 week highs. Some concern about recent freeze and dry W EU weather.
Weekly US soybean and wheat export sales should be low. Corn sales and shipment should remain high.
Cold and dry US Midwest weather should help corn plantings. Some doubt farmer will increase acres.
US south plains could see moisture. North plains and Canada prairies are expected to reman dry.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat, 15,000 contracts of Corn; 5,000 Soybeans and 4,000 lots of soyoil, and sold 4,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 441,000 Corn; net long 141,000 Soybeans; long 55,000 Soymeal, and; net long 69,000 Soyoil. Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,300 contracts; Corn up 12,900; Soybeans up 9,000 contracts; Soymeal up 1,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 7,700.
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