Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
While the crude oil contract has not made a fresh new low for the move this morning, negative classic technical signals, ongoing global energy demand fears and fresh expectations for a bounce in supply flow leaves the technical and fundamental bias in the market pointing downward. However, an offset to the fear of rising supply was noted in the weekly privately sourced ARA crude storage reading with a decline of crude stocks of 4.4%. Fortunately for the bull camp, the crude oil market also seems to be tracking US equity prices which are showing some recovery.
NATURAL GAS
While the natural gas market has clearly rejected a fresh new low for the move breakout overnight, we think the breakout down below the $2.40 level yesterday is the beginning of a downtrend. In addition to further potential spillover pressure from the petroleum complex washout, natural gas is also under pressure from a rising US dollar and generally bearish US weather.
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