Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cent and near 13.22. SMZ is near 354.4. BOZ is near 59.49. CZ is down 4 cents near 5.49. WZ is up 7 cents and near 7.39. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 7.32. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.23.
US stocks are mixed to higher. US Fed delaying tapering is supportive. US Dollar is mixed to higher. Trend is lower. Crude is higher. US hurricane and Middle East unrest supportive. Gold is higher.
Corn futures are mixed to lower. Slow US farmer selling and talk of increase US export demand offers support. Approaching US harvest resistance. Most est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,117. This due to lower domestic use. US final planted acres could be near 94.4 vs USDA 92.7 and yield 174 with range 172 to 177. Final US 2021/22 corn carryout will depend upon final supply and exports but most are near 1,100 vs USDA 1,242. Some est US 21/22 corn exports near 2,750. This could send CZ to 6.50.
US SBM domestic basis is firm. Talk of China buying US soybeans and fact 2022 South America weather could reduce their 2022 crop supports beans. US est Brazil 2022 soybean crop near 144 mmt vs 137 this year, Argentina 52 vs 46. Most est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 180 vs USDA 160 due to lower demand. 21/22 near 150. Final carryout based on final crop size and export demand. There remains strong resistance near 13.33 to 13.51 until post harvest. Support is near 13.00.
Wheat is supported by talk of lower Canada and Russia wheat crops and potential for lower US Dollar. Some feel WZ may be worth 8.00. Some est KWZ near 8.00. USDA est World 2021/22 wheat crop down 16 mmt, domestic use down only 4 mmt and end stocks down 12 mmt.
US 30 day rainfall as pct of normal was drier than normal across US south plains and central Midwest. WI, MN, SD and Delta has been above normal. Ida is adding too much rain to US Delta and could slow harvest there. Over the weekend heavy 2.00-5.00 rains were in N IA and S MN. Temps were above normal in US Midwest. US Midwest 7-10 day rainfall could be in E ND, E SD, MN, NE, S IA and C IL.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 2,000 soybeans and 2,000 soymeal and bought 2,000 corn; and 1,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 SRW Wheat; long 273,000 Corn; net long 80,000 Soybeans; net long 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 68,000 lots of soyoil.
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