Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 14.09. SMK is near 406.2. BOK is near 53.71. CK is up 1 cent and near 5.35. WK is down 5 cents and near 6.47. KWK is down 5 cents and near 6.10. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US Congress passed the stimulus bill.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 43 yuan in soybeans, down 28 in Corn, down 117 in Soymeal, down 140 in Soyoil, and up 68 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 79 ringgit at 4,035 (basis May) supported by monthly data showing low stock levels.
In Argentina, some improvement in soil moisture is expected in the next two weeks although latest maps are drier. In Brazil, conditions in the north will still be wetter than preferred . Net drying will continue in the south into the middle of next week.
Brazil Feb soybean exports 2.9 mmt vs 4.8 ly. Soybean vessel line up 16.5 mmt with 3.7 mmt loaded so far in March. Argentina soybean crop closer to 46 mmt. China Jan pig inventory up 35 pct from last year. Soybean prices were lower yesterday on concern over spreading ASF in China pig herd. Private analyst est US soybean carryout near 40-100 mil bu vs USDA 120. Difference is higher exports. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 200-350 mt vs 334 last week. There is talk of US consumer buying soymeal at current prices.
Argentina corn crop closer to 46 mmt. Some est Brazil corn crop closer to 105 mmt. Private analyst est US corn carryout near 1,050-1,125 mil bu vs USDA 1,502. Difference is higher exports. Weekly US corn export sales est near 400-750 mt vs 115 last week. There is talk of US consumer buying at current prices.
Fact USDA failed to lower EU or Russia exports weighed on wheat futures. Russia Jan wheat exports were 3.1 mmt vs 2.1 last year. US Midwest weather looks wetter. Which for now is negative futures. Weekly US wheat export sales est near 150-350 mt vs 219 last week. There is talk of US bakers buying at current prices.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 17,000 Corn; 14,000 Soybeans; 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 336,000 Corn; net long 160,000 Soybeans; net long 54,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 125,000 Soyoil.
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