Global Ag New for Apr 20.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.17; Soyoil down 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3/4 in SRW, up 22 in HRW, up 22 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 24; Soymeal up $0.55; Soyoil up 0.66. For the month to date wheat prices are up 94 1/4 in SRW, up 142 3/4 in HRW, up 92 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 62 3/4; Soybeans up 94 1/2; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil up 9.28.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 42% in SRW, up 46% in HRW, up 19% in HRS; Corn is up 35%; Soybeans up 29%; Soymeal up 13%; Soyoil up 41%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up 70; Soyoil down 50; Palm oil down 188; Corn up 14 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 163 ringgit (-2.52%) at 6300.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 99 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 19 were: SRW Wheat down 2,327 contracts, HRW Wheat down 646, Corn up 2,873, Soybeans up 8,159, Soymeal up 4,993, Soyoil up 1,454.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal south and well below normal north through Friday, well below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers south Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, well above normal Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday. Scattered showers east Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Friday-Saturday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Scattered showers east Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday, near to above normal west and below to well below normal east Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

 Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday

The player sheet for 4/19 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: U.S. exporters sold 123,650 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• CANCELED FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer canceled its international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Tuesday, European traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) sought a total of 27,320 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Australia in regular tenders that will close on Thursday, April 21.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by July 31 and arrive in Japan by Sept. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on April 20.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 47,120 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: U.S. Cattle on Feed Herd Seen Up 0.4% Y/y

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 4% in Season Through April 17

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 totaled 21.3m tons as of April 17, versus 22.1m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (3.16m tons), Egypt (2.3m tons) and China (2.09m tons)
• EU barley exports at 6.35m tons, versus 6.56m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 12.8m tons, versus 12.6m tons a year earlier

Argentina Crop Deliveries Normalize as Drivers Return to Work

Truck deliveries of grains and oilseeds to Argentine ports have normalized after drivers ended a strike and returned to work, AgroEntregas says on Twitter.

• “In full activity, the trucks entered at the beginning of today, exceed 6000 units, and soy 57% of the total income,” the trucking agency reported
• NOTE: Truck arrivals slowed to a trickle last week amid Argentine Transporters’ Association FeTrA strike over diesel shortages
• NOTE: The deal brokered late last week means shipping schedules probably weren’t disrupted given ports had just enough stockpiles

China Trying to Ensure Food Supplies Amid Challenges: Officials

China is making all efforts to secure food supplies as the world’s biggest consumer is facing challenges related to local production and a “complicated global dynamics,” senior government officials said at a conference Wednesday.

• Spring plantings in some regions have become difficult due to strict Covid-linked isolation policies, Ma Youxiang, vice minister of agriculture and rural affairs, told the 2022 China Agricultural Outlook Conference
  • The government is prioritizing farm production; seeds and fertilizers would be delivered to farmers on time
  • The nation expects to harvest good quality winter wheat in summer
• Hog production losses in China have been increasing due to rising animal feed prices and weak pork rates
  • Losses widened to about 300 yuan ($47) per head in March, from about 200 yuan in February
  • Pork and hog prices are about to recover, costs and selling prices may match in June: Ma
  • A sustainable financial support system is needed to keep hog production stable
• China is also monitoring global farm production and supplies amid surging fertilizer prices and geopolitical tensions, said Qian Keming, vice minister for commerce
  • Some underdeveloped countries may face food shortage this year
  • China has received requests from some countries for food aids

Lack of USDA Staff in Russia a ‘Huge Void’ for Crop Forecasts

An absence of on-the-ground staff in Russia is a “huge void” for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop forecasting, Patrick Packnett, deputy administrator for global market analysis at USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, said Tuesday at a meeting in Chicago.

• U.S. citizens and government workers fled Russia in the wake of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, sending crop markets soaring beginning in mid-February
• USDA still has in-country sources in Ukraine even though the agency hasn’t published an update from its attache since February, Packnett said
• With a lack of intelligence on the ground, the government is relying on other data such as satellite images to track the “very fluid” situation
• USDA will make its first official crop outlooks for Ukraine crop production and exports for the 2022/23 season in its WASDE report due May 12

India Targets Record Grain Output as Normal Monsoon is Forecast

India has set a production target of 328 million tons of food grains such as rice and wheat for 2022-23, according to a statement by the federal farm ministry.

• NOTE: The figure compares with the ministry’s estimate of a record 316.06 million tons of food grain production for 2021-22
• Govt targets rice production at 130.5m tons in 2022-23; 112m tons of wheat; 33.2m tons of corn, 29.55m tons of pulses; 41.34m tons of oilseeds; 415m tons of sugar cane and 37m bales of cotton of 170 kilograms each
• NOTE: Wheat and Rice Output Seen Climbing to Record in India: Ministry
• NOTE: Normal Indian Monsoon Sets Stage for a Bountiful Crop Season
• India needs about 17.9m tons of urea, 5.88m tons of di-ammonium phosphate, 1.98m tons of potash, 6.37m tons of a mix of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers and 3.32m tons of single super phosphate for monsoon-sown crops in 2022: ministry

U.S. Says Russia Sanctions Don’t Impact Agricultural Exports

Treasury Department says in fact sheet that it wants to make clear U.S. sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine do not stand in the way of agricultural and medical exports, nongovernmental organization activities, Covid relief and other support to those impacted by the war.

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 11.980 mln T in April – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 11.980 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 12.023 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.956 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.070 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 850,000 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 850,000 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 155,168 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 156,118 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Brazil’s Parana ports face unusually busy fertilizer import season

Ports in one of Brazil’s biggest farming states are handling an unusual amount of fertilizer after importers rushed to secure supplies amid fears that sanctions on Belarus and Russia would curtail trade, the Parana port authority said.

Brazilian importers are keen to secure crop nutrient supplies even if they have nowhere to store them as Brazil relies on imports for 85% of its fertilizer needs.

Paranagua, one of the South American country’s busiest ports, has 18 vessels awaiting to unload nearly 600,000 tonnes of fertilizer products from various origins, the Parana port authority said in a statement.

And the port’s entire 3.5 million tonnes of storage is already in use, hindering unloading work, Luiz Garcia, president of Parana Ports, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

Paranagua’s fertilizer unloading speed, which hinges on factors such as the importers’ commercial strategy, good weather and the availability of storage, has been challenged by a surge in traffic, 12 days of rain in March and finite storage space.

Garcia said a queue of 18 vessels represented an improvement from recent weeks, when as many as 30 ships were waiting to unload fertilizer at Paranagua, a publicly-owned port.

“The situation is more controlled now,” Garcia said of Paranagua, which receives cargos from 30 countries, including China, Russia, Canada and Belarus.

A vessel which has been waiting the longest to unload fertilizer there arrived on Feb. 21, the statement said.

Shipping data shows orders being fulfilled and fertilizer vessels heading from Russia for Brazil, potentially allowing a normal grain planting season, even as sanctions hit a major supplier nation. (Full Story)

Paranagua boasts Brazil’s most efficient infrastructure to unload fertilizers, Garcia said, with the port currently capable of unloading an average of about 40,000 tonnes in a day. The storage space around the port area is privately-owned.

Parana ports including Paranagua and Antonina handled 3.068 million tonnes of fertilizer imports in the first quarter, a 26% rise, and some 31.5% of Brazil’s total fertilizer imports, the port authority said.

China’s 2022 soybean output to jump 25.8% – agri ministry official

China’s soybean output is set to increase by 25.8% in 2022, an agriculture ministry official said on Wednesday, amid major efforts to boost oilseed production.

The land planted with soybeans will expand by 16.7% this year, said Tang Ke, director general of the market department, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Dryness remains concern for EU-27 corn production – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Recent and upcoming weather sustains our initial outlook for 2022/23 EU-27 corn production at 68.9 [65.5-72.4] million tons.

A mixed temperature pattern was observed in Europe over the past two weeks. Above normal warmth was noted on the west and cooler than normal conditions on the east of the continent. Overall dry weather persisted across Europe in the past weeks with the exception of central Europe, Germany, and eastern France where above normal precipitation was recorded. Such brief local rainfall surpluses were beneficial for low soil moisture content, but dryness largely remains the main concern across Europe. Latest weather forecast calls for a continuation of rainfall deficits. Only west and central Europe are expected to receive significant amounts of precipitation. Upcoming weather should be beneficial for ongoing sowing campaign as overall warmthis expected across Europe with local coolness limited to Iberian Peninsula, France and Poland. As the planting season progresses, we will closely monitor precipitation patterns and soil moisture levels and update our outlooks accordingly.

Indonesia Cuts CPO Reference Price for May, Keeps Export Tax

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil exporter, cuts the reference price for crude palm oil to $1,657.39/ton for May, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, says by phone Wednesday.

• Govt leaves CPO export tax and additional levy unchanged at $200/ton and at $375/ton, respectively, for the same month
• CPO reference price was $1,787.50 in April

Brazil Market Suggests Fertilizer-Supply Gap in 3Q

Brazilian fertilizer prices are at a record premium to the U.S. as buyers struggle to find non-sanctioned supply. Brazil’s main import season begins in 2Q, after sanctions on Russia and Belarus eliminated key producers from the global market. Last year, Brazil sourced 46% of its 12.8 million metric tons of potash imports from the two countries. Though Brazilian potash is trading at a record $345-a-ton premium to the U.S. market to incentivize imports, options are limited. Canada has excess potash to export. China will resume phosphate exports in 3Q, though port supplies indicate low inventory.

Nutrien and Mosaic are the largest publicly traded potash and phosphate producers. Bringing on new capacity takes about five years. Closely held OCP is increasing phosphate capacity and Nutrien is adding potash capacity.

Brazil Seeks Alternative Fertilizer Supply as Russia Sanctioned

Brazil’s potash-supply woes have temporarily eased as docked ships are unloaded, but with Russian fertilizer curtailed by sanctions, concerns over identifying alternative sources persist. Brazil seeks to replace about 3 million metric tons of Russian potash throughout the year. Prices have leveled off but appear unlikely to fall much.

As an alternative, Brazilian authorities are considering increasing urea orders from Iran, which produces about 7.7 million tons a year, though previously imposed U.S. sanctions may make it difficult to move large quantities. In 2021, Iran accounted for 3-4% of Brazil’s urea supply and Russia about 18%.

China’s March soybean imports from U.S. fall from previous year

China’s soybean imports from the United States plunged in March from a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday, as poor margins curbed buying.

China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 3.37 million tonnes last month from the U.S., down from 7.18 million a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

The trend for the year in U.S. shipments was lower, with imports during the first three months of 2022 falling 30% from a year earlier to 13.4 million tonnes, according to the data.

Last year’s imports were supported by Beijing increased purchases of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans, after an initial trade deal in January 2020 between the two countries.

U.S. cargoes in March last year were further boosted as rain slowed the harvest and exports from Brazil, China’s top supplier of the beans.

The data on Wednesday showed that soybean imports from Brazil in March were 2.87 million tonnes, up from 315,334 tonnes a year earlier.

China brought in 6.37 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in the first quarter, up 370% from 1.35 million tonnes a year earlier.

Shipping delays following Hurricane Ida in the U.S. clipped the export window for American cargoes last year. So, Chinese buyers, whose appetite was curbed by poor crush margins, cut imports from the U.S. and waited for the Brazilian harvest.

However, a drought then hit Brazil’s new crop this year, cutting output and delaying some shipments. As the prices of Brazilian cargoes rose, Chinese buyers then turned to U.S. soybeans.

Chinese buyers might buy more from the U.S. for the price advantage during the export season of Brazilian cargoes, traders said.

Poor crush margins, hit by weak hog margins, continue to weigh on purchases of soybeans, which get crushed into soybean meal for the livestock sector and cooking oil.

Farmers in the major southwestern producing province of Sichuan now lose about 240 yuan ($37.51) on each pig raised. China’s hog margins have hovered mostly in negative territory since the middle of last year.

China farm official warns against excessive culling of breeding sows

Chinese hog farmers should not excessively eliminate breeding sows, urged a farm official on Wednesday, after a prolonged period of heavy losses raised the risk of many exiting the business.

Profits are expected to return for pig farmers by the third quarter, although there are still some uncertainties, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a media briefing.