Global Ag New for Apr 21.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.13; Soyoil up 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 1/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 27 in HRS; Corn is up 22 3/4; Soybeans up 49 3/4; Soymeal up $0.93; Soyoil up 2.20. For the month to date wheat prices are up 91 1/2 in SRW, up 135 in HRW, up 97 in HRS; Corn is up 73 1/2; Soybeans up 117; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil up 10.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 41% in SRW, up 45% in HRW, up 19% in HRS; Corn is up 37%; Soybeans up 31%; Soymeal up 14%; Soyoil up 44%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil down 74; Corn up 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 1 ringgit (-0.02%) at 6307.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 99 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 20 were: SRW Wheat down 751 contracts, HRW Wheat down 540, Corn up 1,362, Soybeans up 8,773, Soymeal up 6,946, Soyoil up 268.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal south and well below normal north through Friday, well below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, well above normal Saturday-Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:   Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba Summary: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers east Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday. Scattered showers east Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Sunday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal west and below to well below normal east Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday-Saturday, far south Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

The player sheet for 4/20 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 9,500 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CANCELED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender seeking 120,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan will import 380 tonnes of feed-quality barley for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said. The ministry had sought 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by July 31 and arrive in Japan by September 29.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 47,120 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

Canada Canola Demand Seen Rising on Proposed U.S. EPA Fuel Rule

A potential move by the U.S. to allow canola oil as feedstock for renewable diesel will boost demand for Canadian canola, said Jim Everson, Canola Council of Canada president.

• Currently, about 5% to 8% of Canadian canola output used as a biofuel in Canada, U.S. and Europe
• That could rise to as much as 20% by 2030, Everson said
• Industry goal is to boost production to 26m tons by 2025, from 12.6m tons harvested in 2021
• NOTE: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s released a proposed decision that canola oil-derived renewable diesel, jet fuel and other biofuels qualify as “advanced biofuels” under the Renewable Fuel Standard program
• NOTE: Canada is the world’s largest canola grower

Green Plains Touts ‘Breakthrough’ in Squeezing Protein From Corn

U.S. ethanol maker Green Plains Inc. says its focus on producing high-value ingredients made from corn has led to greater than 60% protein concentrations from the grain.

• The “breakthrough” stems from a production changeover across the fermentation and production processes of the co.’s plant in Wood River, Neb., co. says in a statement
• “We believe that for the first time in history, a dry-mill biorefinery has been able to achieve protein concentrations over 60% with yields approaching 4 pounds per bushel, which can drastically improve the economics of a biorefinery,” CEO Todd Becker said
• The trial also resulted in “record-high” low-carbon renewable corn oil yields of up to 1.4 pounds per bushel: statement
• “We will continue to develop this process to fully transform our current operations while remaining on track to meet our 2024-25 objectives”: Becker
• NOTE: Backer has been working to sharply reduce Green Plains’ reliance on ethanol, with an aim of fully remaking the co. into a low-carbon manufacturer of high-protein and “clean sugar” ingredients for use in products ranging from pet food to candy, with biofuel merely a byproduct

World Food Crisis Is Spurring Investment Shifts, CoBank CEO Says

Global high food prices and supply shortages are drawing new investor attention to the agriculture industry, CoBank ACB Chief Executive Officer Thomas Halverson tells Bloomberg Television.

“It makes the agriculture complex look like a more interesting and compelling investment proposition for people who might not have thought so historically,” he says

Russia’s war against Ukraine is having a ripple effect on supply chains that are “likely to last quite some time”: Halverson

Major agriculture producers like the U.S. need to produce as much as possible to help the world rebuild food stockpiles over the next couple years, he says

China Boosts Brazilian Soy and Ukrainian Corn Imports in March

China’s soybean imports from Brazil more than doubled to 2.87m tons in March from a month earlier, according to the nation’s customs department.

• That compares with just 315k tons bought a year ago
• Imports from the U.S. fell 9% from a month earlier to 3.37m tons, -53% y/y
• NOTE: China March Soybean Imports 6.353m Tons: Customs

CORN

• Shipments from Ukraine surged 48% to 1.36m tons in March from a month earlier, +64% y/y
• China imported 1.04m tons of U.S. corn in March, -4% y/y

Brazil 2022 Soybean Crop Seen At 125.3 Million Tns, Stable From Previous Estimate – Abiove Crushers Group

BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 125.3 MILLION TNS, STABLE FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ABIOVE CRUSHERS GROUP

BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS SEEN AT 2.42 MILLION TNS VERSUS 1.9 MILLION TNS IN MARCH ESTIMATE – ABIOVE

BRAZIL 2022 SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN AT A RECORD 18.3 MILLION TNS, STABLE FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ABIOVE

BRAZIL SOYBEAN COMPLEX EXPORTS REVENUE SEEN AT A RECORD $55.9 BILLION IN 2022 VERSUS $51.4 BILLION IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ABIOVE

BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 77.2 MILLION TNS, DOWN 500,000 TNS FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ABIOVE

BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN CRUSHING SEEN AT A RECORD 48 MILLION TNS, STABLE FROM PREVIOUS PROJECTION – ABIOVE

Pakistan Plans to Import 3m Tons Wheat to Meet Demand: Recorder

The government forecasts domestic harvest to fall by about 7% from the target of 28.9m tons this year, Business Recorder reports, citing unidentified people.

Food security ministry proposes to buy 2m tons of grain on government-to-government basis from Russia and the remaining by offering international tenders

Indonesia’s March Palm Oil Exports Rise 9.4% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia shipped 1.77m tons of palm oil overseas in March, a 9.4% increase from the previous month, according to surveyor Intertek Testing Services in an emailed statement on Thursday.

• March shipments by grade:
  • 66,781 tons of crude palm oil
  • 578,540 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 571,707 tons of RBD palm oil
• March sales by destination:
  • European Union at 334,502 tons
  • India and subcontinent at 534,389 tons
  • China at 130,219 tons

Argentina’s 2022/23 wheat planting area seen at 6.5 mln hectares -grain exchange

Argentina’s wheat planting area for the 2022/23 season is expected to be around 6.5 million hectares, down from a revised 6.7 million hectares in the previous season, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange said on Wednesday.

High fertilizer prices, rising input costs, a relative improvement in barley margins and domestic policies affecting wheat planting are some of the reasons for the smaller area, as well as uncertainties regarding possible changes in such policies in the future, according to the exchange.

It said doubts coming from local markets are adding to those related to the weather and international markets, creating a series of uncertainties for Argentine farmers, who are about to start sowing their wheat crop.

“Signals from the public sector on agricultural and trade policies will be crucial for farmers to invest in such a challenging context,” the exchange said.

“There are concerns that the rules under which the game will be played could be changed,” it added.

In the 2021/22 cycle, Argentina’s wheat production was 21.8 million tonnes. The South American country is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters.

Argentina’s government in March created a stabilization fund aimed at controlling wheat prices amid rising inflation.

Chinese soybean crushers slow bean buying on poor margins

Chinese soybean crushers have slowed bean purchases for deliveries through August as poor margins curbed appetite, traders and analysts said.

Reduced demand in the world’s top soybean buyer could cut China’s appetite for bean imports, already forecast to drop in 2021/22 by nearly 10% from a year ago due to poor livestock production margins and elevated bean prices.

“China’s buying for shipments between June-August is very slow due to poor crush margins,” said Zou Honglin, analyst with the agriculture section of Mysteel, a China-based commodity consultancy.

Unless crush margins improve, soybean purchases could fall further, Zou said.

China was expected to need 7-8 million tonnes of soybeans each month between June-August, but less than 20% of that demand has been covered so far, traders said.

Crush margins for Brazilian and U.S. soybeans for delivery in June and July are currently around -20 yuan ($3.11) to -5 yuan per tonne, while margins for August U.S. Gulf cargoes were slightly positive, traders said.

Meanwhile measures to contain the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in China since early 2020 have restricted transport of people and key agricultural products this month, further denting demand and disrupting trade.

The United States Department of Agriculture further lowered its estimate for China’s 2021/22 soybean imports to 91 million tonnes in April, down 9% from a year earlier.

Serbia Sets Quotas for Wheat, Flour, Corn, Cooking Oil Exports

Serbia has set monthly limits for foreign sales of some agricultural commodities including 150,000 tons of wheat, 150,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of flour and 8 million liters of refined sunflower oil, according to a government statement.

• NOTE: In March, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said there would be exemptions to a ban on foreign sales of selected commodities
• Each trader asking for an export permit can apply for as much as one-fifth of those respective monthly quotas
• Producers and traders wanted fewer restrictions on exports to reduce inventory levels but the government must ensure security of supply, Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said in separate online comments. “Serbia has everything in abundance, which is why exports are allowed, but with quotas so that everything can be controlled,” Brnabic said.

Paraguay soy production further down amid unfavorable late season wet weather – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 4.97 [4.68–5.12] MILLION TONS, DOWN 9% FROM LAST UPDATE

2021/22 Paraguay soybean production is further cut by 9% to 4.97 [4.68–5.12] million tons, reflecting unfavorable early April harvest conditions amid torrential rains that have been pounding key crops areas of the southern Oriental Region. Our median production estimate is slightly above the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 4.2 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.3 million hectares and 1.27 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 3.2 million hectares and 1.55 tph, respectively).

Fertilizer Prices Split at Equator on Tighter 3Q Supply Outlook

Most U.S. fertilizer prices are flat-to-lower as cold, wet weather delays fieldwork and farmers pull back on expensive inputs. In Brazil, firming fertilizer prices during the off-season hint at a looming 2H shortage with Russia and Belarus exports sanctioned. India’s much anticipated urea tender remains delayed due to financing options.

Delays, Supply Impact Fertilizer Prices

Fertilizer pricing was mixed across North America on fieldwork delays and supply concerns. Prices in the Northern Plains were up for ammonia but down for urea, with the latter fueled by softer New Orleans (NOLA) barge pricing. Ammonium sulfate inched higher in most locations amid tight supply, while phosphate fell slightly in the U.S. Northeast. In Eastern Canada, where spring supplies are threatened by tariffs on Russian imports, prices were moving up for urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), ammonium sulfate, dry phosphates and potash, even though spring application remains stalled by poor weather.