Global Ag News for Apr 1.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 21 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $0.01; Soyoil down 0.51.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 75 1/4 in SRW, down 67 1/4 in HRW, down 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 98 3/4; Soymeal down $2.05; Soyoil down 5.32. For the month to date wheat prices are up 93 in SRW, up 90 1/2 in HRW, up 100 in HRS; Corn is up 56 1/2; Soybeans down 25 1/4; Soymeal up $21.10; Soyoil down 3.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 33% in SRW, up 30% in HRW, up 11% in HRS; Corn is up 26%; Soybeans up 21%; Soymeal up 14%; Soyoil up 23%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 131; Soyoil down 12; Palm oil down 256; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 150 ringgit (-2.63%) at 5555.

There were changes in registrations (-15 Corn). Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 132 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 31 were: SRW Wheat up 3,180 contracts, HRW Wheat up 918, Corn up 42,779, Soybeans up 17,996, Soymeal up 4,186, Soyoil up 4,337.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

 Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

The player sheet for 3/31 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 22,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 8,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SUNFLOWER OIL SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil in an international tender
• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 600,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO is seeking 355,000 tonnes of wheat in an import tender for delivery September-November 2022, traders said on Thursday.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has extended the deadline for the validity of price offers in a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

Brazil 2021-2022 Soybean Estimate Revised Lower Due to Drought

Brazilian agricultural consultancy Datagro cut its estimate for the country’s 2021-2022 soybean crop because of unusually dry weather in the south. Datagro now estimates a crop of 125.1 million metric tons, down from its February forecast of 130.3 million tons. The drought that hit the southern states of Rio Grando do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana resulted in an intense decline in productivity, which outweighed good levels of productivity in states such as Mato Grosso and Goias, Datagro said. The La Nina weather phenomenon’s impact on Brazil has reduced output from the potential for a crop of 145 million metric tons this year, given the area planted with the oilseeds, XP said. The USDA’s most recent estimate for Brazil’s 2021-2022 soybean crop is for a harvest of 127 million tons, compared with 120.7 million tons for the US.

Brazil Likely to Sell More Grains to Europe Due to War: Guedes

Brazil has the opportunity of increasing sales of grains including soybean and corn to Europe, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggers product shortages and disrupts supply chains, Economy Minister Paulo Guedessaid during a trip to Madrid.

“Europe will loosen (import rules) because everybody wants grains. There’s rationing here in Spain,” Guedes said on Thursday. “Brazil could be part of the solution for Europe’s food security.”

Ukrainian Farm Leader Expects 30% Drop in Spring Plantings

Spring planting of corn, soybeans and sunflowers will drop “at least 30%” in Ukraine because of the war, says Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.

• Overall production of the spring-planted crops will drop “at least 40 to 45%” and depend on supplies of fertilizer, pesticides and diesel fuel, all of which are in short supply, he says
• The war’s impact will not be as great on winter wheat, which already has been planted, with production down “not more than 20%” compared with last year
• Mining of farmland by Russian troops is also hindering planting
• “About 50,000 hectares is closed because of mines put there by Russian troops. Every day they place more,” he says
• Ukraine has about 33 million hectares of arable land, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization
• Kozachenko spoke during a Zoom call on the war’s impact hosted by the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council

Indonesia, Malaysia Agree to Set Palm Oil Prices Together

The two biggest palm oil producers agree to set prices together instead of competing against each other, said Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob after meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Jakarta on Friday.

• Countries signed deal on protection for migrant workers, including on single-lane for applications and monitoring their status
• Countries to intensify talks on land and sea borders as travel restrictions are eased, said Jokowi, as the Indonesian president is known

RUSSIA LIFTS BAN ON GRAIN EXPORTS TO EAEU COUNTRIES

The Russian government has lifted the ban on grain exports to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kyrgyz National News Agency (KABAR) reported the Embassy of Russia in Kyrgyzstan said Friday.

It said this include wheat and olive seeds, rye, barley, ordinary corn and burdock corn.

They can be exported to the EAEU countries with a permit issued by the Russian Agriculture Ministry, it added.

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Steady in Week to March 28: AgriMer

The share of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition was at 92% as of March 28, even with the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

Lawmakers Request Easing Biofuel Regulation to Lower Gas Prices

• Bipartisan group makes ask in letter to White House
• Say changes will help lower gas prices, boost the economy

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is asking the Biden administration to ease two regulations on biofuels to help reduce pain at the pump.

In a letter set to be sent to the White House that was shared first with Bloomberg Government, 29 lawmakers write that the requested changes would “significantly increase U.S. energy independence, lower prices at the pump and ensure the continued success of our sanctions on the Russian economy.”

The House members are asking the EPA to allow a fuel blend that is 15% ethanol, known as E15, to be available year-round. Currently, E15 cannot be sold in conventional markets between June 1 and Sept. 15.

They also want the EPA to reverse course on a plan to retroactively lower the amount of biofuels that U.S. oil refiners are required to add into their fuel mix. The agency proposed it as a way to help oil refiners affected by Covid-19, according to their proposed rule.

With the midterm elections ahead, it’s a notable bipartisan agreement on one move the government can make to address skyrocketing gas prices amid inflation and the war in Ukraine. It comes as President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak Thursday afternoon about the administration’s efforts to lower gas prices.

Brazil Likely to Sell More Grains to Europe Due to War: Guedes

Brazil has the opportunity of increasing sales of grains including soybean and corn to Europe, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggers product shortages and disrupts supply chains, Economy Minister Paulo Guedessaid during a trip to Madrid.

• “Europe will loosen (import rules) because everybody wants grains. There’s rationing here in Spain,” Guedes said on Thursday. “Brazil could be part of the solution for Europe’s food security.”
• NOTE: Spain to Allow Rationing After Supermarket Shortages on March 30
• NOTE: Europe Eyes Grains Import Waiver Amid War Shock, Spain Says on March 7
• NOTE: Brazil is the world’s largest soybean exporter and the second largest corn exporter

India Extends Limits on Edible Oils Stockpile Till Dec. 31

India extended the validity of a rule that imposes limits on edible oils and oilseeds inventories by six months to ease rising prices in the world’s biggest buyer of soybean, palm, and sunflower oils.

• The cap on stockpiles will be in place till Dec. 31, the department of food and public distribution said in a statement Thursday
• Exporters and importers are exempt from the limits with some conditions
• NOTE: India Extends Rule Limiting Stockpiles of Edible Oils, Oilseeds

Russia Suspends Sunflower Seed and Rapeseed Exports: Tass

Russia is temporarily banning exports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds in order to stabilize prices, Tass reported, citing a statement from the cabinet.

• Measure will be in place from April 1 to Aug. 31
• Floating export tariff on sunflower meal will also be introduced from May 1 to Aug. 31
• NOTE: Russia is the world’s fifth-biggest rapeseed exporter this season and the second-biggest exporter of sun-meal
• Government also decided to reduce the number of points where soy can be exported from April 1 to Aug. 31; there are no restrictions within the Eurasian Union

China’s farmers face fertilizer crunch as COVID measures hamper deliveries

China’s COVID-19 curbs are disrupting the supply of fertilizer to the country’s northeastern bread basket just a month away from spring planting, threatening this year’s corn and soybean crops if not resolved soon.

Farmers typically have fertilizer prepared in early April before applying to fields later in the month during planting. But China’s worst outbreak of COVID since the pandemic began two years ago have triggered strict controls on movement of people and goods, sharply slowing deliveries.

Fertilizer producers, dealers, analysts and associations said rules requiring truck drivers to take COVID tests every 24 hours, a need to obtain special passes to deliver goods and factory suspensions due to local COVID cases are all contributing to tight supplies.

“Production of nitrogen fertilizer and fertilizer preparation for spring planting has been greatly affected,” the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association said this week.

Jilin, China’s second-largest corn-growing province, is among the hardest hit after the local government banned movement of people across the provincial border, and within, from Mar. 14 as COVID cases hit thousands daily.

“Fertilizer supply here couldn’t be tighter,” said a Jilin-based dealer surnamed Yan, who is short more than 2,000 tonnes of the critical crop nutrient for his customers.

The bottleneck comes on top of record fertilizer prices, driven up by strong global demand, high energy costs and sanctions on major producers Russia and Belarus.

Despite efforts by Beijing to cool prices, China’s wholesale fertilizer index (CFCI) is 40% higher than a year ago.

That had discouraged many dealers from building stocks in recent months, catching them short in their busiest sales period.

Yao, a dealer in Liaoning, said he’s short about a third of his needs.

The transport curbs are especially problematic for the northeast, which does not have enough local fertilizer production and relies on deliveries from other provinces.

The northeast’s Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces and Inner Mongolia region produce more than 40% of China’s corn and half its soybeans.

Top fertilizer producer Sinofert Holdings 0297.HK still had about 80,000-100,000 tonnes of product waiting to be shipped, executive director Ma Yue told reporters on an earnings call last week, even after getting about 1,000 “green passes” for trucks.

The special passes to deliver critical goods take time to process and must be renewed daily. It has also become increasingly difficult to find drivers willing to work under the restrictions, dealers said.

The challenges come even as Beijing repeatedly calls for all-out efforts to guarantee successful harvests amid global food security concerns. (Full Story) (Full Story)

Fertilizer had reached 68.8% of Jilin’s farming households by Wednesday, despite the challenges, government paper the Jilin Daily reported, adding that the supply of farm materials was “orderly and stable”.

Exchange Might Shave Argentina Corn, Soy Forecasts After Frosts

Frosts in recent days, especially in Buenos Aires province, may curb yields for late-planted crops, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly report.

• Soy estimate kept at 42m metric tons, corn kept at 49m

Middle East at ‘Breaking Point’ Over Food Prices, UN Says

Soaring costs for food staples in import-dependent Middle Eastern and North African countries are putting people’s resilience at a “breaking point,” according to the United Nations’ World Food Programme.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a major crop exporter, has added to surging costs for flour and vegetable oil, which are central to the region’s diets, it said in a statement Thursday.

A gauge of global food prices reached an all-time high in February, and the crisis is hitting at the onset of Ramadan, when people would typically gather for meals with friends and relatives to break the daily fast.

“We are extremely concerned about the millions of people in this region who are already struggling to access enough food because of a toxic combination of conflict, climate change and the economic aftermath of Covid-19,” said Corinne Fleischer, WFP regional director for the Middle East and North Africa. “This crisis is creating shock waves in the food markets that touch every home in this region. No one is spared.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent the cost of even basic foods like bread soaring in the region, especially for wheat dependent nations like Egypt. Saudi Arabia this week pledged $15 billion in support to Egypt, the latest Gulf state to back an economy under increasing pressure from the war.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 16% Last Week

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 17.5% Week Ended March 23