Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—MONTHLY OILSEED, GRAIN CRUSHINGS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 1 cent; HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 14 cents; Soybeans up 6 to 19 cents ; Soymeal down $0.50 to up $4.00, and Soyoil down 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 2 cents; HRW up 5; HRS down 12; Corn is up 24 cents; Soybeans up 38 cents; Soymeal up $17.00, and; Soyoil up 75 points. Crushing margins are up 7 cents at $0.56 (July); Oil share down 1% at 37%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 42 cents; HRW down 58; HRS down 26; Corn was up 12 cents; Soybeans up 36 cents; Soymeal up $6.00, and; Soyoil up 195 points. Crushing margins were down 4 cents $0.62 (July); Oil share up 1% at 37%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 114 yuan in soybeans, up 16 in Corn, up 95 in Soymeal, up 84 in Soyoil, and up 122 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 117 ringgit at 3,543 (basis June) at midsession following gains in soyoil prices.
South America Weather Forecast: Conditions in Argentina and Brazil are still expected to be mostly favorable through at least the next ten days. A gradual return of rain is expected in northern Brazil.
U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was notably drier in the Northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 35,000 Corn; net bought 32,000 Soybeans; bought 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 15,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 374,000 Corn; net long 148,000 Soybeans; net long 76,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 73,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 140 contracts; HRW Wheat up 5,000; Corn up 8,700; Soybeans up 8,600 contracts; Soymeal up 4,700, and; Soyoil down 730.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.
Tender Activity—Saudi Arabia seeks 295,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought 500,000t optional-origin milling wheat—Thailand passed on 504,000t optional-origin feed wheat—
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecasts for corn and soybean plantings on Wednesday fell below analyst expectations, sending futures prices for both commodities up by their daily limits. Smaller-than-expected plantings of the two main cash crops in the United States would heighten concerns about global food and animal feed supplies after importers and domestic processors loaded up on grain and oilseeds earlier this year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday delivered a stunning set of numbers yet again, this time significantly lighter corn and soybean plantings than expected, and that locked Chicago-traded futures up the daily limit. U.S. farmers will have another chance in early June to tell USDA what they planted or still hope to plant, and odds are decent that those acres will come in higher than they did on Wednesday, though the rise may not be large enough to ease supply worries. Perhaps the biggest concern for the market is the 87.6 million acres of soybeans that U.S. farmers intend to plant this spring since supply relative to demand is predicted to drop to an all-time low later this year, representing less than 10 days of use.
Ethanol production ending Mch 26 averaged 965,000 barrels per day (estimates 932,000 to 994,000 bls), up 4.7% vs a week ago and up 14.9% vs year ago
—Stocks were 21.1 mil bls (estimates were 21.7 to 21.9 mil), down 3.2% vs a week ago and, down 17.9% vs last year
—Corn use was 97.5 mil bu vs 93.2 mil last week and the 96.1 mil needed to meet USDA current projections.
The U.S. soybean crush likely fell to 4.952 million short tons in February, or 165.1 million bushels, according to the average forecast. Estimates ranged from 164.0 million bushels to 170.0 million bushels. The February crush would be down from 196.5 million bushels processed in January and 175.3 million bushels crushed in February 2020. It would also be the smallest monthly crush since September 2019, according to USDA data.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT on Thursday.
U.S. soyoil stocks as of Feb. 28 were estimated at 2.253 billion lbs, compared with 2.306 billion lbs at the end of January and 2.390 billion lbs at the end of February 2020. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.225 billion to 2.275 billion lbs.
Rains that have pelted Argentina’s farm belt since mid-March halted the deterioration of corn and soy yields, and a coming dry spell will help kick off harvesting of the country’s two main cash crops, climatologists said. Most of Argentina’s agricultural area will see little to no rainfall in the April 1-8 period,” the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said. That is good news for farmers now starting to bring in their 2020/21 corn and soybeans. While key to crop development, rain makes it hard to move heavy harvesting combines over wet ground. March’s storms arrived too late to help yields in areas pounded by hot, dry weather from mid-2020 through February. Late-planted soy was especially hard hit by dryness.
Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen by nearly 23.3% to 35.06 million tonnes so far this season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, economy ministry data showed. Traders sold 14.3 million tonnes of wheat, 16.08 million tonnes of corn and 4.09 million tonnes of barley. Exporting almost 14.3 million tonnes of wheat, traders have used 82% of the total export quota of 17.5 million tonnes imposed for the whole 2020/21 July-June season. Ukraine sold about 57 million tonnes to foreign buyers in the 2019/20 season. Exports could decline to 45.7 million tonnes in 2020/21 because of a smaller harvest, the government has said.
Euronext wheat rebounded sharply in late trading on Wednesday as lower than expected official forecasts of U.S. corn and soybean planting sent Chicago grain futures soaring. Front-month May milling wheat settled up 5.75 euros, or 2.7%, at 215.50 euros a tonne. It rose as high as 218.00 euros, a one-week high, following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) planting estimates. Earlier in the session, the front-month contract had eased to 208.75 euros, equalling Tuesday’s three-month low.
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