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Global Ag News for Apr 14.22

TODAY – DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 4.2% to 24.803M Bbl

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 12 1/2; Soymeal up $0.38; Soyoil up 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 71 3/4 in SRW, up 75 1/4 in HRW, up 34 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 20 1/4; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal down $0.35; Soyoil up 2.63. For the month to date wheat prices are up 118 in SRW, up 150 3/4 in HRW, up 86 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 46 3/4; Soybeans up 70 1/4; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil up 7.59.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 46% in SRW, up 47% in HRW, up 19% in HRS; Corn is up 33%; Soybeans up 27%; Soymeal up 13%; Soyoil up 39%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil up 94; Palm oil up 148; Corn up 18 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 159 ringgit (+2.59%) at 6294.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 132 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 13 were: SRW Wheat up 878 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,686, Corn up 14,668, Soybeans down 2,759, Soymeal up 92, Soyoil up 16,775.

Northern Plains Forecast: Snow north Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered snow Sunday. Temperatures well below normal through Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday, mostly east. Temperatures below normal Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba: Scattered showers east Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

The player sheet for 4/13 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,500 soyoil.


  • WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said it had bought 350,000 tonnes of European wheat in an international tender, with the lowest offer coming in at a premium price of $460 including freight.
  • WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has purchased about 120,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender seeking shipment to two ports only
  • SOYMEAL SALE: Three South Korean importers have purchased a total of 121,000 tonnes of soymeal in private deals largely expected to be sourced from South America
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it would seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by July 31 and arrive in Japan by Sept. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on April 20.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that closed on Wednesday, traders said.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 47,120 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
  • CORN TENDER: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn with the Black Sea region excluded as an origin


  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 114,645 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on April 14.

CROP SURVEY: U.S. March Soybean Crush Seen at 182.2M Bushels

Brazil’s Advanced Soy Sales Below Average on Fertilizer Shortage

Brazilian farmers have sold in advance 9.8% of the expected 2022-23 soybean crop through April 11. That’s below 14% for the same period last year and just over half the five-year average of 17.8%, says Luiz Fernando Roque, an analyst at Safras & Mercado.

  • Uncertainties surrounding fertilizer supplies have hampered barter trading, which usually spurs advanced sales, Roque says in a telephone interview
  • “Farmers have been showing little advance in operations to lock in costs, which is risky”
    • Forward sales are up just slightly from 7.1% on March 4
  • Sales of the current crop were 56.6% complete as of April 11, up from 48.5% in the March report
    • That’s below 67.4% in the same period last season and in line with five-year average

Argentina Trucker Protests to Continue With No Deal Reached

A strike by Argentine truckers of grains and oilseeds is set to continue after a three-hour meeting mediated by authorities failed to yield an agreement over freight rates.

  • “We hope that in the coming days it can be resolved,” Transport Secretary Diego Giuliano said in a statement
  • NOTE: Crop exporters say stockpiles at ports would run out next week if the strike continues, disrupting shipments

Trucks Stay Away From Argentina Grain Ports Amid Diesel Strike

Just 13 trucks were lined up to enter ports on Tuesday, when the daily average a year ago was 4,530, trucking agency AgroEntregas says on Twitter.

  • “Entry of trucks at its minimum expression,” the agency wrote
  • “Everyone is awaiting for the transporters-government meeting, which will begin in a few more minutes”
  • NOTE: Argentine Transporters’ Association FeTrA started a strike on Monday to protest diesel shortages
  • Truckers were blocking access to several ports run by Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and other traders: AgroEntregas

Argentina Grain Exporters Urge Strike Resolution as Stocks Wane

Argentina’s crop crushers and exporters are calling for a swift resolution to a truckers’ strike as grain stockpiles at ports dwindle.

  • Shipments of Argentine corn, wheat and soy so far haven’t been disrupted by the three-day-old strike because of 5-6 days worth of stockpiles, says Gustavo Idigoras, who heads crop crushing and export chamber Ciara-Cec
  • “If the strike isn’t lifted by Monday, we are going to have problems,” Idigoras said by phone
  • NOTE: Meetings are being held Wednesday to seek a resolution of the protests over diesel shortages
  • Today, fewer than 50 trucks have entered ports to unload, compared with the normal daily average of 5,000-7,000 for this time of year, he says
    • That means about 200,000 tons a day — mainly corn, wheat and soy — aren’t getting into ports
  • There have also been operational difficulties at ports, he says

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 13: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2021-22 Production estimates maintained for both corn and soybean crops
  • Corn harvest advances to 19% complete from 17%
  • Soybean harvest 14% complete vs 9%

USDA attaché sees Brazil 2022/23 soybean crop at 139 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Brasilia:

“Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area at a slower pace, to 42.5 million hectares (ha) in 2022/23, up from the estimated 40.7 million ha planted in the 2021/22 season. Post forecasts 2022/23 soybean production at 139 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 124.8 MMT harvest this season, assuming return to normal weather conditions. The forecast is based on current market conditions and trends – including strong demand, high prices, and a favorable exchange rate. However, the Russia/Ukraine war and resulting fertilizer supply concerns may constrain expansion. Soybean exports are estimated lower at 77 MMT for 2021/22, then forecast to rebound to 87 MMT for 2022/23.”

Brazil soybean production slightly down on unfavorable early April harvest conditions – Refinitiv Commodities Research


2021/22 Brazil soybean production is fractionally lowered to 124.2 [120.5–127.8] million tons, as harvest slowdowns across the Central-West (and areas to the south) amid wet weather conditions. Our current median estimate is 0.8 million tons below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 125 million tons, which assumes total soy sowings at 40.8 million hectares and national level yield of 3.06 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 40.5 million hectares and 3.07 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged soybean production and area at 122.4 million tons and 40.8 million hectares, respectively. As of 09 April, Brazil’s soybeans are 84.9% harvested nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (11 April), slightly behind last year’s pace (<1%). The latest EC/GFS model forecasts suggest mostly warm and wet conditions to continue, with notable exceptions. Temperatures may plummet across the South and the southern half of the Central-West, with rather dry conditions back next week, warranting attention.

Record high vegetation densities in the Central-West increase Brazil’s second corn yields – Refinitiv Commodities Research


2021/22 Brazil total corn production is increased by 2% to 115.0 [108.7–120.3] million tons, thanks to soil moisture recoveries/record high vegetation density levels in key producing areas of the Central-West, where more than 70% of Brazil’s second crop corn is grown. Our current median estimate is 1 million ton below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 116 million tons, which assumes total corn sowings at 21.1 million hectares and national level yield of 5.5 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 21 million hectares and 5.47 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged corn production and area at 115.6 million tons and 21.2 million hectares, respectively. As of 09 April, Brazil’s first corn is 56.7% harvested according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (11 April), largely in line with last year’s pace. The second corn planting is essentially complete, ahead of last year’s pace mainly thanks to rapid/stable soybean harvest progress. The latest EC/GFS model forecasts suggest mostly warm and wet conditions to continue, with important exceptions. Temperatures may plummet across the South and the southern half of the Central-West, with rather dry conditions back next week. If verified, yield prospects in those areas could be adversely affected, warranting attention.

Extreme dryness and record low vegetation density in the South cut U.S. winter wheat yield – Refinitiv Commodities Research


Extreme/exceptional dryness and record low vegetation densities throughout key hard red winter (HRW) wheat producing areas of the Southern Plains cut 2022/23 U.S. winter wheat production by 6% to 35.8 [33.4–38.2] million tons, despite relatively healthy crop conditions across the soft red winter (SRW) wheat belt. National-level yield is now estimated at 48.5 bushels per acre, 5.6% below trend yield set earlier in the season (with area of 35.06 million acres, unchanged from last update). In Prospective Plantings (released 31 March), USDA fractionally (<1%) lowered its estimate of 2022/23 plantings to 34.2 million acres, among the lowest areas since 1909 despite being the highest since 2017. Of this total, HRW and SRW wheat areas were 23.7 and 6.89 million acres, respectively. Our current estimates put them at 24.5 (HRW) and 6.56 (SRW) million acres, respectively.

As relentlessly dry conditions continue to dominate the Southern Plains and the Southwest U.S., a severe lack of moisture in key HRW wheat production regions there warrants close attention. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (11 April) continues to indicate far worse winter wheat crop conditions than the same time last year, with only 32% of the crop in good or excellent (GEX) condition nationally, compared to last year’s 53%. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas – which are 1st, 3rd and 4th largest winter wheat producers in the country, respectively – are all showing alarmingly low condition scores early in the growing season, with little hope to recover given the latest weather forecasts. USDA rated 32% and 33% of Kansas and Oklahoma crops (respectively) as poor or very poor (PVP), significantly up from last year’s 16% and 8%, respectively. Even more alarming is the historically low ratings for the Texas crop, a whopping 79% of which is currently estimated to be in the PVP category (compared to last year’s 36%). The expanding drought across the Southern Plains/Southwest U.S. should be viewed as the sole biggest downside risk to yield this season, as the lack of moisture there could continue through August (according to the Refinitiv Weather Research team’s latest June-August outlook). As such, the overall soil moisture status and rainfall prospects in these regions should continue to be watched closely.

EU Wheat Supplies Improve With Russia Still Shipping: Strategie

“Developments over the past few weeks have indicated that Russia has been managing to export more wheat than the small quantities we previously anticipated,” analyst Strategie Grains says in an emailed report.

  • Shipments from Russia “much less severely affected” by the war than those from Ukraine, where sales have been reduced to a minimum
  • Russian Black Sea ports remain operational, and maritime traffic slowly resuming in Azov Sea
  • As a result, EU wheat export demand is reduced, aiding reserves
  • Meanwhile, corn supplies in Europe remain tight
    • There is a small amount of Ukrainian corn arriving via land routes, and EU is also accelerating purchases from U.S., Canada, Moldova and South Africa
    • Market also “feverishly awaits” Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest

France’s Avril to expand sunflower crushing to cut import reliance

French oilseed group Avril said on Thursday it plans to build additional sunflower seed crushing capacity to cut its reliance on imports as war in Ukraine has reduced sunflower oil and meal shipments from the European Union’s main suppliers.

Russia and Ukraine together account for about 80% of global exports of sunflower oil.

Brazil May Look to U.S. for Fertilizer Supply Ahead of Planting

Urea and phosphate prices backed off in New Orleans (NOLA) as wet weather delayed demand from North American farmers for a second week, raising the possibility of U.S. exports of surplus fertilizer to Brazil to take advantage of a record premium. Brazilian buyers are scrambling to replace imports from sanctioned suppliers Russia and Belarus.

Fertilizer Prices Mixed

New Orleans and Brazil urea prices stayed under pressure in early week trading, while harder-to-find potash and phosphates trended firm-to-higher at most locations. In the U.S. heartland, prices for other major nitrogen products remained strong. California ammonia prices moved up 32 percent since the last report, following higher levels already attained in the Cornbelt and Tampa.

Indonesia Mulls Building Strategic Corn Reserves: Bapanas

Indonesia plans to assign state-owned food logistics co. Bulog to manage govt’s corn reserves to help stabilize price of the commodity, according to Risfaheri, acting deputy of food availability and stabilization at the National Food Agency, known as Bapanas.

  • Bulog can buy corn from farmers at harvest using funds allocated in state budget, and co. can release reserves for feed mills when needed, Risfaheri says in a webinar on Thursday
  • NOTE: National Food Agency is a newly formed govt agency that manages availability of nine types of staple food, including rice, meat, soybean, white sugar, chilly, eggs and shallot

Malaysia Looks to Ease Migrant Worker Shortage as Borders Reopen

  • About 180,000 workers to be hired over six weeks: minister
  • More than 500,000 applications received from across sectors

Malaysia is looking to ease a pandemic-driven labor crunch that has choked its key plantation and manufacturing industries by hastening the hiring of migrant workers.

The country is expected to hire nearly 180,000 workers over the next six weeks, according to Human Resources Minister M. Saravanan. A special committee will meet daily from April 15 to speed up the approval process, state news agency Bernama reported Wednesday, citing Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin.

Malaysia froze the hiring of foreign workers in the past two years to stem the spread of Covid, leading to an acute labor shortage especially in the palm oil plantation sector which suffered billions of dollars in lost revenue. The country re-opened borders on April 1, and is transitioning to the endemic phase of the outbreak.

Although various association had urged the freeze to be lifted sooner, the government has to first ensure that locals didn’t want those jobs, Saravanan said. But that proved difficult as locals shunned jobs that were viewed as dirty, dangerous, and difficult — especially in plantations — and preferred to become e-hailing drivers to earn more money, he said.

“Why would they work in a plantation sector when they could drive a Grab?”, he said. “It’s not an employers markets any more. The scenario has completely changed.”

Red-Hot Rally in Palm Oil Reveals Dirty Jobs That No One Wants

There are only about 1.17 million registered foreign workers in Malaysia, down from 1.7 million before the pandemic, Saravanan said.

The ministry received 519,937 applications as of April 7 from employers across various industries. About 24,500 workers are due to complete their interviews by April 27, with another 150,000 expected to enter the country in six weeks after completing their verification process, according to the minister.

India likely to get average monsoon rains in 2022

India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains this year, the state-run weather office said on Thursday, raising prospects of higher farm and general growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy.

The rains, which usually lash the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreat by September, are expected to be 99% of the long-term average this year, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement.

New Delhi defines average, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches)for the four-month season beginning in June.

“The encouraging forecast of a normal monsoon in 2022, coupled with healthy reservoir levels in all regions, augurs well for a timely onset of summer crop sowing,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA, the Indian arm of Moody’s.

The monsoon is crucial for the $2.7-trillion economy, as it brings nearly 75% of the rain needed by farms, besides replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.

Nearly half of India’s farmland gets no irrigation and is dependent on the annual rains from June to September. Farming accounts for nearly 15% of the economy but sustains more than half of a population of 1.3 billion.

Key cotton, soybean and sugarcane growing regions in northern parts of peninsular India, central India, the foothills of the Himalayas and some northwestern areas are likely to get normal to above normal seasonal rainfall, the IMD said.

Tea, rubber and rice growing regions in northeast India and southern parts of the peninsula could receive rainfall that is below normal, it added.

India is the world’s biggest producer of cotton and pulses and the second biggest producer of sugar, wheat and rice. It is also the world’s biggest importer of edible oils such as palm and soy.

A normal monsoon will help India maintain rice exports and cut imports of edible oil in the next season, a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said.

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