Global Ag News for Aug 3

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 62% G/E, Soybeans 60%

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $0.32; Soyoil down 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 21 1/4 in SRW, up 27 1/4 in HRW, up 14 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/2; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal up $0.25; Soyoil down 0.72.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 66 yuan ; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil down 142; Palm oil down 220; Corn up 27 — Malasyian Palm is up 26. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.63%) at 4146 after posting its biggest loss in seven weeks, with expectations about a recovery in demand from top buyer India and tight supplies from Malaysia improving sentiment.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal north and below normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 8/2 had funds: net buyers of 13,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 28 were: SRW Wheat up 1,072 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,285, Corn up 4,510, Soybeans down 5,348, Soymeal down 4,489, Soyoil down 939.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC,) said it bought 60,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 119,435 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh Seeks to Import 50,000 Tons of Wheat

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 62% G/E, Soybeans 60%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 62% G/E vs 64% last week, and 72% a year ago
• Corn dough 38% vs 18% last week, and 37% a year ago
• Corn silking 91% vs 79% last week, and 91% a year ago
• Soybeans 60% G/E vs 58% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Soybeans blooming 86% G/E vs 76% last week, and 84% a year ago
• Spring wheat 10% G/E vs 9% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 17% G/E vs 3% last week, and 4% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 91% vs 84% last week, and 84% a year ago
• Cotton 60% G/E vs 61% last week, and 45% a year ago
• Sorghum 62% G/E vs 66% last week, and 55% a year ago

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol at 439.9M Bu in June

• Corn for ethanol was 16% higher than in June 2020
• DDGS production rose to 1.93m tons

U.S. Soybean Crushings at 162M Bushels in June: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 8.8% lower than same period last year
• Crude oil production 6.2% lower than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 7.5% y/y

U.S. Inspected 1.384m Tons of Corn for Export, 181k of Soybean

In week ending July 29, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 181k tons vs 242k the previous wk, 558k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,384k tons vs 1,184k the previous wk, 727k a yr ago
• Wheat: 388k tons vs 515k the previous wk, 557k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 29

USDA inspections for week ending July 29 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• China was the top destination for corn inspections
• Mexico led in soybean and wheat inspections

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Est. Cut to 51.6M MT vs 54.6M: AgRural

Lack of rains in April and May and frost since late June support the new 2021 estimate, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Yield estimate at 66.6 bags/ha is the lowest in 10 years
• Combining estimates for Brazil’s North, Northeast and Center-South, total output from winter corn crop estimated at 56.2m mt, vs 59.1m in early July and 75.1m in 2020
• Winter corn harvest is 49% complete in the Center-South, vs 39% a week earlier and 61% a year before

Brazil July Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC

• Soybean exports fell 13% in July from a year ago, down 22% from June
• Coffee exports fell 15% y/y

Brazil’s soybean exports slump in July amid stock hoarding

Brazil’s soybean exports fell in July as the hoarding of stocks by farmers raised supply concerns, sources told S&P Global Platts Aug. 3, which is expected to support demand for US beans.

Brazil, the world’s top soy supplier, exported 8.66 million mt of soybeans in July, down from 11.12 million mt in June and from 9.95 million mt in July last year, the country’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade, or Secex, said in a report Aug. 2.

Soybean exports over January-July were estimated at 66 million mt, down 3% on the year, the data showed.

With a delayed harvest in the current marketing year 2020-21 (February-January), Brazil’s soy exports in June and July had been expected to emulate the record levels of April and May, but the reluctance of oilseed farmers to sell their stocks since early June has put the brakes on the country’s exports.

Soybean farmers in Brazil have resorted to stock hoarding amid volatile prices, market analysts said. The average domestic price was seen at Real 155/60 kg ($30/60 kg) July 10, down Real 7/60 kg on the month.

Egypt Wheat Purchases Are Running 27% Behind a Year Ago (Table)

• Country books 60,000 tons, lowest volume since September
• Average price jumps to four-month high as crop outlooks fall

Egypt’s state buyer bought 60,000 tons of wheat in a tender on Monday, putting its total purchases for the 2021-22 season about 27% below a similar time last year.

Russian Wheat Exports Down 34% so Far This Season: Agency

Wheat shipments for the 2021/2022 season totaled 1.7m tons as of July 29, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

• That means wheat exports totaled about 700k tons in week to July 29, compared with about 600k tons a week before
• Exports of all grains are at 2.3m tons in the season
• NOTE: Data are preliminary and include exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is a customs union of countries that includes Russia

Russian Wheat Yields Running Lower Y/y Amid Harvest: Ministry

Russian farmers harvested 12.8m hectares of wheat as of Aug. 2, versus about 13.6m hectares at similar time last year, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry’s analytical center. The average wheat yield is 3.48 tons/hectare, compared with 3.66 tons/hectare last year

SovEcon Slashes Russia Wheat Crop Est. 7% on Heat, Smaller Area

Russia’s 2021 wheat harvest is now seen at 76.4m tons, down from a prior estimate of 82.3m tons, consultant SovEcon says in an emailed report.

• The main reason for the downgrade is a substantially smaller winter-wheat area reported by Russia’s statistics service
• Hot, dry weather throughout July has also curbed potential of spring-wheat crops, and yields for winter wheat are running below expectations in the Center and Volga Valley regions
• The worsening crop outlook in top wheat exporter Russia, as well the impact of Canada’s drought, may not be “fully reflected in global wheat prices at the moment,” says Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon

Russian wheat prices up on worsening crop outlook

Russian wheat prices rose last week due to a worsening outlook for the country’s crop and stronger markets in Chicago Wv1 and Paris BL2Z1, analysts said on Monday.

Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in August was $254 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note. 0#IKAR

Another consultancy, Sovecon, recorded a $10 rise to $255 per tonne of wheat. Barley was up $10 at $224, it said.

Egyptian Wheat Stockpiles Enough for 6.5 Months: Supply Minister

Sugar supplies sufficient for 6 months, vegetable oils for 5.5 months, rice for 5 months, Supply Minister Ali El-Moselhy says at televised event. Egypt reduced sugar imports from 1m tons to 200,000 tons in the current year

Vietnam plans to stockpile rice as coronavirus curbs hit farmers

Vietnam plans to stockpile rice purchased from domestic farmers in a bid to help growers affected by strict coronavirus movement curbs and low export prices offload their harvest, state media reported on Tuesday.

The move, which is subject to approval by Vietnam’s prime minister, should encourage farmers to continue rice production into the next harvest, the official Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported, citing deputy agriculture minister Tran Thanh Nam.

Nam did not say how much rice the government planned to buy for the temporary stockpiling. Paddy output from the ongoing summer-autumn harvest is forecast to be 9.04 million tonnes, up 1.35% from last year.

Malaysia July. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to EU 439,049 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

• EU imported 439,049 tons; +53.1% m/m
• China imported 243,639 tons; -0.9% m/m
• India imported 192,700 tons; -41.7% m/m