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Global Ag News for Dec 23rd


Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 38 in SRW, up 46 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 10 3/4; Soybeans up 47 1/4; Soymeal up $2.38; Soyoil up 0.67. For the month to date wheat prices are up 25 3/4 in SRW, up 34 1/4 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 36 1/2; Soybeans up 109 1/4; Soymeal up $59.20; Soyoil down 0.68.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 5 yuan ; Soymeal up 44; Soyoil up 120; Palm oil up 122; Corn up 5 — Malasyian Palm is up 30. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 30 ringgit (+0.67%) at 4478.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 50 Corn; 244 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 22 were: SRW Wheat up 2,664 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,960, Corn up 13,865, Soybeans up 3,617, Soymeal up 929, Soyoil down 2,562.

The player sheet for Dec. 22 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,000 soyoil.


  • DURUM WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in a tender which closed on Tuesday after negotiations continued into Wednesday
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday


  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued another international tender to purchase an estimated 22,000 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued another international tender to purchase about 180,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice with import using land transport by railway

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

  • Corn est. range 725k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,013k
  • Soybean est. range 700k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,194k

Brazil’s Parana Soy Crop Estimate Cut By 12% on Drought: Deral

Parana’s soybean crop estimate for 2021-22 season was cut to 18.4 million tons from 20.9 million in previous report, the state’s agriculture agency Deral says Wednesday on website.

  • Output seen falling 7% from past season
  • Average yield seen down 7.7% y/y to 3.269 kg/ha
  • Planted area seen up 1% y/y to 5.6m ha
  • Summer corn production seen rising 18% y/y to 3.7m tons
  • Winter corn, or “safrinha” crop, seen more than doubling to 15.1m tons from 5.7m tons in the previous season

Philippines Corn Imports to Hit Record as Harvest Dips: USDA FAS

Corn imports in the Philippines will rise to a record 1.2 million metric tons after “poor results” in the domestic harvest, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

  • That’s up from the USDA’s official outlook for imports of 500,000 tons
  • USDA’s FAS also boosted estimate for milled-rice production and lowered the outlook for wheat imports as “demand for hog feed remains soft and higher-priced consumer wheat products begin to hit the shelves”

Neste to Stop Using Palm Oil in Fuels Output by End of 2023

Finland’s Neste will stop using palm oil in production of renewable fuels by the end of 2023, the company said by email.

  • Currently, the three biggest sources of feedstock across its renewables plants in Finland, the Netherlands, and Singapore are currently animal fat waste, used cooking oil and vegetable oil residues
  • Separately, Saras said it would continue to use palm oil as a feedstock at Sarroch as long as it’s permitted to do so; Saras also uses used cooking oil

Ukraine Will Next Month Mull Milling-Wheat Export Limit

Ukraine’s government will in mid-January consider whether it needs to limit milling-wheat exports in the first half of 2022 amid worries high shipments could raise local prices, Reuters reported, citing two unidentified people familiar with the matter.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture and economy ministries told Reuters there were currently no factors that would require restrictions; Reuters said officials will look at the issue next month
  • NOTE: Ukraine has already set a target of 25.3m tons for total wheat exports in the 2021-22 season, though that’s not a strict cap
  • The government could update that memorandum and add a 4m-ton milling-wheat export limit for the rest of the season, Reuters cited the sources as saying
  • Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi said in a text message to Bloomberg that he hasn’t heard anything on possible limits
  • Ukraine’s grain association said in statement Wednesday that the agriculture ministry doesn’t plan any restrictions
  • NOTE: Ukraine reaped a record wheat harvest of 32.7m tons in 2021

Uruguay’s Beef Exports Seen Rising 10% in 2022: Ministry

Uruguay’s beef exports could increase 10% by value next year even as production is expected to grow at a slower pace, said Angela Cortelezzi, an economist at the Agriculture Ministry’s planning and policies office.

  • Beef production could expand 2% in 2022, compared to an estimated 9.4% this year
    • Total farm related exports will exceed $8b in 2021 thanks to record beef exports of approx. $2.3b
  • Speaking in a webinar, Cortelezzi said total farm exports could grow 3% by value next year
    • The ministry forecasts dairy exports steady at approx. $700m in 2022
  • Soy production for the 2021-22 season could increase 29% from 2020-21 on expectations farmers will plant more of the oilseed, obtain higher yields
  • Agriculture’s share of GDP could grow as much as 2.5% in 2022 if a third pulp mill starts production in 4Q

U.S. winter wheat production unchanged but a cold January may heighten winterkill risks

Outlooks for 2022/23 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production are unchanged at 35.1 million acres and 37.9 [34.6–41.2] million tons, respectively. As winter wheat remains dormant over the next few months, temperature and insulating snow cover are the key features to watch. While in the dormant stage, winter wheat typically is left unharmed with temperatures down to 0 °F, but becomes vulnerable to damage when temperatures reach and stay below -10 °F for a significant period of time (as it can kill the submerged growing point resulting in winterkill). If snow cover (above 1 inch or so) is present these cold temperatures might not be able to penetrate the snow’s insulating qualities. Winterkill is not a common occurrence in U.S. winter wheat production regions, as a combination of extreme low temperatures and little (less than 1 inch) or absent snow cover is a rare event.

December has been largely warmer than normal throughout the Plains and Upper Midwest, but the latest short-term January forecasts by the Refinitiv Weather Research team indicate higher confidence for colder than average conditions, warranting close attention. Very cold temperatures will likely invade the northern U.S. as December winds down, a trend that looks to expand to other central/southern regions in January. A cold January could bring the greatest threat to the dormant winter wheat crop. To add insult to injury, a pattern featuring cold air outbreaks next month is expected to be drier than normal, likely exacerbating already poor soil moisture conditions in some of the major crop regions in the Central Plains and Southwest U.S. Cold and dry conditions to begin the new year might bring heightened winterkill risks to the dormant crop.

Withering Crops Highlight La Nina Fears for Brazil Soy Farmers

  • Crop estimate in top grower Parana was cut by 12% on weather
  • Dryness may trim output in the world’s largest exporter

The impact of the La Nina weather pattern that’s expected to roil global food markets in coming months is already showing up in parts of Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean exporter.

Parched conditions and heat led Parana’s agriculture agency Deral to cut its estimate for output in the state by 12% on Wednesday, and more may be coming if adverse weather continues, said Marcelo Garrido, an economist at Deral. The prospect of a second straight La Nina trimming what’s otherwise expected to be a bountiful harvest is helping boost soybean prices and adding to worries over global food inflation.

Some local consultancies have already lowered Brazil’s soybean output estimate due to yield losses in the south. That’s the case for Parana-based AgRural, which reduced its production estimate by to 144.7 million tons from 145.4 million in the previous forecast.

For now, farmers in Parana are an exception in Brazil, where beneficial weather has allowed a good crop development in central and northern areas.

All eyes will remain on Brazil’s south. Rio Grande do Sul, a top-growing state at the border with Argentina, reported below-average rain during seeding, which is now almost finished. Some farms needed replanting, but yields won’t be known until next year. If good rains fell from now on, the state can still reap a good crop.

While some isolated and weak precipitation may be seen in the south in the coming days, it won’t be enough to restore soil-moisture in time to allow soybeans to recover in Parana, according to Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Climatempo in Sao Paulo. Rain should be in line with historical averages starting in the second half of January, benefiting crops in Rio Grande do Sul. But it will be too late for Parana’s, including Vivian’s crop.


What to Watch:

  • Warm temperatures this week will slowly give way to eastern coolness into next week across Australia
  • As temperatures cool, Queensland and northern New South Wales will receive excessive rainfall through 10 days
  • The Australia wheat/rapeseed crop could be adversely impacted by flooding as the harvest stage draws to a close

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: U.S. Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 3.4%

November placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.97m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

  • That would be the second straight y/y increase after rising by 2.4% in October
  • Marketings seen up by 4.4% y/y, following four straight months of declines
  • Feedlot herd as of Dec. 1 seen mostly unchanged from a year ago at 12.04m head
  • The USDA is scheduled to release its cattle on feed report at 3pm on Dec. 23

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