Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—-USDA AG OUTLOOK CONFERENCE BEGINS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 1 cent, HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat up 1 cent, Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil down 35 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 52 yuan in soybeans, up 55 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, up 230 in Soyoil, and up 254 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 142 ringgit at 3,490 (basis May) on demand fears, high export tax.
Net drying will continue across a majority of Argentina through next Wednesday. There will be some daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms; though, any meaningful moisture from this will be localized. Subsoil moisture will support the needs of most crops through the first week of the outlook; however, greater rain will be needed later in February and early March to prevent crop stress from becoming more of an issue. Last evening’s GFS model run did not show much rain in Argentina Feb. 27 – Mar. 4; though, additional isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is likely.
Conditions in much of Brazil will continue to be favorable; though, some areas will be wetter than preferred.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 SRW Wheat; net even in Corn; net sold 2,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 340,000 Corn; net long 165,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 111,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 400 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn up 13,200; Soybeans up 4,300 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 925.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
Tender Activity—Japan bought 82,393t U.S. wheat—Jordan bought 60,000t optional-origin wheat—Philippines passed on 145,000t optional wheat—S. Korea bought 55,000t optional-origin feed wheat—
POLL-U.S. 2021 corn plantings seen at 92.9 mln acres; soy 89.4 mln – Reuters News
It has been three years since U.S. farmers experienced a normal spring planting season, as extreme flooding in 2019 and a pandemic in 2020 derailed the initial plans, resulting in dramatically thinner supply levels than originally projected. The extraordinary underproduction of corn and soybeans over the past two seasons has helped Chicago-traded futures reach multi-year highs, increasing projected profitability for the 2021 harvest. Producers will report planting intentions to the U.S. Department of Agriculture at the beginning of March, and those numbers will be published at the end of next month and will be factored in to balance sheets until the next acreage survey results are revealed at the end of June. But USDA at the end of this week will be unveiling unofficial supply and demand outlooks for 2021-22, which will start on Sept. 1 for domestic corn and soybeans. These will include the only area projections of the year that are not based on farmer surveys.
Outlooks for 2021/22 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production are unchanged at 30.9 million acres and 33.3 [30.2–36.3] million tons, respectively. In Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings (12 January), USDA set its initial estimate of 2021/22 plantings at 32 million acres, the first yearly rise since 2013. This prediction is directionally consistent with our expectations (first released on 30 September 2020) which suggested an upward shift in winter wheat plantings from last season’s 30.4 million acres.
Recent and expected favorable weather indicates record high China wheat production – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2021/22 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 139 [135–143] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING BETWEEN 6 MILLION TNS AND 7.99 MILLION TNS FEBRUARY VERSUS 6.6 MILLION TNS IN SAME YEAR AGO MONTH – ANEC
BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 545,165 TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 415,282 TNS FORECAST IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO – ANEC
Brazil’s first corn crop seen on the rise as concerns over second crop sowings remain – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Argentina soybean production slightly up on favorable weather conditions in the northwest – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Paraguay soybean production rising as vegetation density remains near-record – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Euronext wheat futures eased on Wednesday from a two-week high hit in the previous session as traders sought clarity on potential cold weather damage to U.S. crops, while a small import purchase by Algeria failed to bring fresh impetus to prices. Front-month March milling wheat was down 1.75 euros, or 0.8%, at 228.75 euros ($275.35) a tonne.
Malaysia has kept its March export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The palm exporter calculated a reference price of 3,977.36 ringgit per tonne for March. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices exceed 3,450 ringgit a tonne.
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