Global Ag News for Feb 3.22

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 in SRW, down 8 1/4 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil down 0.66.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 40 in SRW, down 41 in HRW, down 18 in HRS; Corn is down 20 3/4; Soybeans up 61 3/4; Soymeal up $2.19; Soyoil up 0.03.  For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 20 in HRW, down 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans up 41 1/2; Soymeal up $14.20; Soyoil up 0.50.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 79 ringgit (-1.41%) at 5513.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 17 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 137 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 2 were: SRW Wheat up 1,855 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,244, Corn down 8,290, Soybeans up 6,848, Soymeal up 3,841, Soyoil up 1,744.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday, north Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

The player sheet for Feb. 2 had funds: net sellers of 9,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 9,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 380,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. (Full Story)
• WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat, 75,000 tonnes of durum and 75,000 tonnes of barley in a international tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 14.
• BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley. A new tender with the same shipment positions is expected to be issued closing on Feb. 8.
• CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 8.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand, European traders said. The deadline for registration to participate in the tender was Jan. 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 1.
• SOYMEAL, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to buy up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 2.

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

The USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Jan. 27.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,085k
• Soybean est. range 900k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,290k

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 5.6% to 25.854M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.708 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.041m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.026m

USDA attaché report puts China 2021/22 corn imports at 20 mln tonnes

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing:

“China’s overall feed production is projected to rise through the end of calendar year 2022. Corn production in MY 2021/22 is adjusted to 272.6 million metric tons (MMT), up 11.9 MMT from last year owing to higher planting area despite slightly lower yields. At the same time, corn and sorghum imports are expected to remain at near record levels despite China’s tariff rate quotas (TRQ) remaining unchanged. Post’s sorghum imports are estimated higher in MY 2021/22 due to price advantages and China’s recent buying spree. While corn prices have softened leading some feed mills to return to more corn in their rations with less wheat and rice, southern feed mills report difficulty sourcing adequate volumes of sufficient quality corn and continue to mix alternative grains.”

“…Post’s MY 2021/22 corn import estimate is 20 MMT, 6 MMTs below USDA’s official estimate. FAS China expects local corn prices to eventually decline from last year’s high, stock building to moderate, and demand to soften as imported corn stocks finally enter the market.”

Brazil’s Datagro Cuts Soybean Crop Forecast Because of Dry Weather

(Dow Jones) — 1415 ET – Brazil’s soybean harvest will be smaller in the 2021-2022 growing season than in the previous season, despite an increase in the area planted with the oilseeds, because of a lack of rain in some areas, according to agricultural consultancy Datagro. The group cut its forecast for soybean production in 2021-2022 to 130M metric tons, from its December forecast of 142.1M tons. In the 2020-2021 season, Brazil grew 137.3M tons of soybeans, according to crop agency Conab. The scant rainfall has been caused by the La Nina weather phenomenon and has mainly affected the three southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana, along with the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Datagro says.

2022/23 U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION: 37.9 [34.6–41.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2022/23 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production are unchanged at 35.1 million acres and 37.9 [34.6–41.2] million tons, respectively. In Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings (12 January), USDA set its initial estimate of 2022/23 plantings at 34.4 million acres, up 2% from last season. This prediction is directionally in line with what we have been calling for (first released on 29 September 2021), which suggested an upward shift in winter wheat plantings from last season’s 33.6 million acres.

As winter wheat remains dormant over the next few weeks, temperature and insulating snow cover are the key features to watch. While in the dormant stage, winter wheat typically is left unharmed with temperatures down to 0 °F, but becomes vulnerable to damage when temperatures reach and stay below -10 °F for a significant period of time (as it can kill the submerged growing point resulting in winterkill). If snow cover (above 1 inch or so) is present these cold temperatures might not be able to penetrate the snow’s insulating qualities. Winterkill is not a common occurrence in U.S. winter wheat production regions, as a combination of extreme low temperatures and little (less than 1 inch) or absent snow cover is a rare event.

The past 15 days featured some extreme weather pattern across the Northern Plains. Blasts of Arctic air have been transported into portions of the region and surrounding areas, occasionally dropping temperatures below the winterkill threshold of -10°F in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The rest of the winter wheat belt largely remained warm, with little to no winterkill concerns. Another cold snap is on its way to the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow and potentially later this week as well but snow coverage is limited there, warranting attention. The USDA’s latest monthly crop progress report (25 January) and many local reports continue to discuss the elevating risks of low soil moisture in some of the major crop areas in the Southern Plains. Kansas’ topsoil moisture supplies were rated 39% very short and 38% short, for example. Topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions in Oklahoma were rated mostly short, as nearly 90% of the state is currently in the moderate/exceptional drought category, up 76% from last year. Short-term forecasts indicate higher confidence for wetter conditions next week throughout these key southern producing states, which should provide at least some relief to the dry soils.

2021/22 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 108.1 [97.6–115.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN 4% FROM LAST UPDATE

Record low vegetation density levels in the South and a dismal weather outlook for the second crop corn season cut 2021/22 total Brazil corn production by 4% to 108.1 [97.6–115.2] million tons. Our current median estimate is 6.9 million tons below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 115 million tons, which assumes total corn sowings at 20.8 million hectares and national level yield of 5.53 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 20.7 million hectares and 5.23 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged corn production and area at 112.9 million tons and 20.9 million hectares, respectively.

The past two weeks featured, yet again, widespread warmth to Brazil, though dryness has been at least partially relieved by sporadic/locally torrential showers. The warmest conditions were felt in the most drought-stricken areas of the South (up to 3.5 °C above normal) while most regions saw 1-2°C above average temperatures. The long awaited precipitation over some of the major southern production regions, including Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, was far from sufficient and barely helped restore soil moisture there. The first week of February is expected to bring a continuation of unfavorable warmth and dryness (except for some key southeast crop regions such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais where torrential rains have caused severe flooding lately), which will likely only worsen the already dire situation.

Continued dryness and heat are undoubtedly impacting crops in grain fill stages, but at the same time have allowed first corn harvests and second corn sowings to speed up. As of 29 January, Brazil’s first corn is 11% harvested and second corn is 14.5% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (31 January), both largely ahead of last year’s pace. Satellite imagery continues to show mixed conditions across core first corn crop areas of Brazil, with far above historical median vegetation density levels in the Northeast/Southeast and record (or near record) low levels in the South/Central-West. There is a growing concern about increasing production (i.e. operating) costs for fertilizers and pesticides, which may affect the second crop sowings as the prime soy harvest season unfolds.

Malaysia Jan. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to EU 259,836 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

• EU imported 259,836 tons; -27.7% m/m
• India imported 200,460 tons; -33.8% m/m
• China imported 120,884 tons; -26.1% m/m

2022 World Wheat Area to Only Rise Slightly on High Inputs: FAO

Global wheat plantings are only expected to grow moderately this year, as high farmer input prices deter a bigger expansion, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday in a report.

• Most of Northern Hemisphere winter-wheat is currently dormant
  • EU crop is mostly in favorable shape, with “negligible” y/y acreage changes
  • U.S. plantings increased, but crops are hampered by drought
  • Moisture has aided wheat in Russia and Ukraine
  • Sowing is up in India and Pakistan on high prices, China area near average

FOR THE CURRENT 2021-22 SEASON:

• World grain stockpiles are seen at 824m tons, up about 2m tons from a December estimate
  • That puts inventory only slightly lower y/y
• Wheat stockpile now seen at 288m tons, about steady y/y
  • Still, supplies in major exporters remain tight
• Coarse grain stockpiles little changed from December, down 0.4% y/y

Crop Deliveries to CBH in Australia Beat Previous Record By 28%

Australia’s biggest grain exporter CBH Group reported an all-time high of 21.3 million tons of harvest deliveries from farmers for the 2021-22 season, beating the previous record of 16.7 million tons in 2016-17.

• Total is 50% more than the 5-year harvest average of 14.2m tons
• “Most growers experienced yields well above average for all crop types, and the rate at which it was harvested and delivered is unprecedented,” Acting Chief Operations Officer Mick Daw said
• Next challenge is moving the significant amount of grain received through the network and shipping it to global customers, Daw said
  • Western Australian grain rail and road network will be at peak capacity through the whole year as we move crops to port, he added

World Food Prices Are Climbing Closer Toward a Record High

• UN’s index of global food costs advanced 1.1% last month
• Prices are edging closer to an all-time high set in 2011

Global food prices jumped toward a record last month, further adding to the surging cost of living for consumers.

The United Nations’ index of prices rose 1.1% in January, pushed up by more expensive vegetable oils and dairy. The gauge is edging closer to 2011’s all-time high, and unfavorable weather for crops and the fallout from an energy crisis threaten to keep prices high going forward.

Inflation has been running rampant across the globe, and the latest leg higher in the UN’s food index could further stretch household budgets. The commodities tracked by the gauge are used in most grocery store products or fed to animals those items are produced from. That’s particularly bad news for the poorest consumers and nations with the least disposable income.

The poorest “segments in the population will feel the pinch the most,” Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director for markets and trade at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said by phone. “High energy costs and high food costs and high necessities — they account for a large part of their overall expenditures.”

Surging energy prices have bolstered the appeal of crop-based biofuels and raised the cost of fertilizers and fuel for farmers. That could force cutbacks on farm inputs, particularly in developing nations, which may increase reliance on crop imports if harvests falter, Schmidhuber said.

Crop supplies also face risks from bad weather and geopolitical tensions. A dry spell has hit South American soy fields, while palm oil prices have reached a record due to labor shortages and export restrictions. The possibility of conflict at the Ukraine border also has the market watching for any impact to Black Sea grain shipments.

For now, output is struggling to keep up with demand as economies rebound from the pandemic, farm adviser Agritel said in a note this week.

India Tender Boosts Urea Prices

News of a tender call in India boosted domestic and international urea prices. New Orleans (NOLA) urea climbed to $640 a short ton (st) or higher early in the week vs. last week’s $485-$590, while inland terminals rose to $660-$705 vs. $620-$650 last week. Urea prices in the Mideast and Egypt were also firming. Phosphate prices appeared to be strengthening as well, with reports of NOLA diammonium phosphate approaching $700/st vs. last week’s $650-$675. Inland phosphate prices were mixed, however, with some locations reporting increases and others seeing additional declines from last week. Ammonium sulfate prices were also higher at some inland terminals.