Global Ag News for Jan 28.22

 TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $0.38; Soyoil up 0.63.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, down 28 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12; Soybeans up 43 1/4; Soymeal up $1.58; Soyoil up 1.97. For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 74 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 35; Soybeans up 118 1/4; Soymeal up $9.40; Soyoil up 8.40.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 55 yuan ; Soymeal up 44; Soyoil up 174; Palm oil up 162; Corn down 3 — Malasyian Palm is up 184. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 184 ringgit (+3.38%) at 5628.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 21 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 27 were: SRW Wheat down 687 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,328, Corn up 3,335, Soybeans up 11,446, Soymeal down 829, Soyoil up 4,807.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

The player sheet for Jan. 27 had funds: net sellers of 10,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from March 5-15 and/or March 16-26. Deadline for offers is Jan. 28.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 tonnes of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender which closed on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 25,431 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 50,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from Australia in an international tender which closed on Thursday
• BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Jordan’s state grains buyer re-issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley after postponing the tender on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY, CORN, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 6,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2021-22 corn crop at 51 million tonnes

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million (metric) tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent). Barley production in MY 2021/2022 is increased to 5.05 million tons, 250,000 tons higher than the official USDA number. Corn production in MY 2021-2022 is forecast at 51 million tons, 3 million lower than the official USDA number due to dry conditions. Exports are reduced accordingly.

Brazil 2022 Soybean Crop Seen At 135.8 Million Tns, Down 4.2 Million Tns From Previous Forecast -Abiove

• BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 135.8 MILLION TNS, DOWN 4.2 MILLION TNS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 86.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS. 91.1 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN CRUSHING SEEN AT A RECORD 48 MILLION TNS, STABLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• BRAZIL 2022 FINAL SOYBEAN STOCKS SEEN AT 3.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS. 4 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE

Argentina soybean planting area estimate trimmed over planting delays

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 27 (Reuters) – Argentina’s forecast of the area to be planted with soybean in 2021/22 was reduced by 100,000 hectares to 16.3 million hectares from the previous 16.4 million hectares, explained by delays in the progress of planting, said Buenos Aires grains exchange on Thursday.

Despite recent rainfall, the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal saw crops hit by a prolonged drought starting in December.

Soybean fields in Southern Cordoba and Northern Pampas-Western Buenos Aires are reporting yield losses of up to 30%, which will affect the production projection, currently at 44 million tonnes, the exchange said in its weekly report.

The national soybean planting progress stands at 99.7% of the area and there are still some 56,000 hectares to be incorporated, concentrated in the northwestern region, the report said.

Rains Were Both Blessing and Curse for Argentina Soy: Exchange

Rains in recent days have helped to recover soil moisture for late-planted soy on parts of the Pampas growing belt, but in other areas plants have been lost to flooding, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a report.

• A lot of late-planted soy still needs more water
• Meanwhile, the rains came too late for parched early-planted soy, with yields seen plunging by up to 30%

A Week of Dryness Seen Ahead for Argentine Soy, Corn: Exchange

Rainfall from Thursday through Feb. 2 will be minimal on the Pampas growing belt, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly weather report.

• Rains won’t surpass 10mm (0.39 inches) across most of the belt, exchange maps show

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Jan. 27: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2021-22 Soybean area est. lowered to 16.3m ha vs 16.4m last week
  • Planting 99.7% complete
• Corn area est. held at 7.3m ha with 94.4% planted
• The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

EU Raises Soft-Wheat Stockpiles Estimate, Cuts Corn Harvest

EU soft-wheat stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 13.3m tons, up from a December estimate for 12.9m tons, the European Commission said in a report on its website.

• Outlook for exports to third countries kept steady at 32m tons
• Production estimate cut slightly to 130.5m tons, from 130.6m tons
• Corn harvest estimate lowered to 69m tons, from 69.4m tons

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports to Ease Only Slightly Despite Curbs

• Shipments may drop by just 1 million tons this year: Gapki
• Policy that mandates domestic sales not likely to cut exports

Indonesia’s palm oil exports may drop by just 1 million tons this year, according to a top industry group, a sign that the government’s latest policy to cool prices will not significantly crimp overseas shipments.

Exports by the top oil palm grower could fall 3% to 33.2 million tons this year, said the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki. That’s because its consumption of the tropical oil for food and biodiesel is expected to rise.

While the forecast doesn’t yet take into account the latest export rule that requires companies to allocate 20% of shipments to the local market, Gapki said it doesn’t expect the policy to affect overseas volumes.

Indonesia’s 2022 Palm Oil Output May Rise 4.9% Y/y: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil production may rise to 53.8m tons this year from 51.3m tons in 2021, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

• Production est. in 2022 includes 4.8m tons of palm kernel oil, Gapki says in an emailed statement on Friday
• Higher price of fertilizers and its shortage last year to affect this year’s yields and output
  • Extreme wet weather early this year to also affect production
• End-2021 stockpiles at 3.57m tons vs 3.89m tons in Nov.
  • Dec. palm oil production 4.36m tons vs 4.38m tons in Nov.
  • Dec. exports 3.02m tons vs 2.32m tons in Nov.
  • Dec. domestic consumption 1.67m tons vs 1.58m tons in Nov.

Indonesia Dec. Palm Oil Exports at 3.02M Tons

Palm oil exports rise 30.1 percent from the previous month to 3.02 million tons from 2.321 million tons in November as reported by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, or Gapki, in an emailed statement.

• Palm oil production -0.3% m/m to 4.363m tons from 4.378m tons in Nov.

Indonesia Sets Feb. CPO Reference Price at $1,314.78/Ton

Govt raises the reference price of crude palm oil for February from $1,307.76/ton in January, according to trade ministry’s decree posted on its website on Friday.

• CPO export tax and additional levy in February unchanged at $200/ton and $175/ton, respectively

Thailand Orders Crackdown on Palm Oil Hoarding as Prices Jump

Thailand is cracking down on hoarding of palm oil to prevent prices from climbing further after global rates of the cooking oil surged to a record on tight supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia.

• Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha has ordered officials to inspect inventory of fresh palm fruit and palm oil to prevent any hoarding, government spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana says in statement
• Those found guilty of hoarding will be subject to jail terms and fines: Thanakorn
• Heavy rains in southern region, Thailand’s main palm oil-growing area, has significantly reduced the supply, he says
• “The prime minister has emphasized the tackling of higher product prices and living costs to alleviate the impact on general public,” says Thanakorn