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Global Ag News for Jan 5 22


Wheat prices overnight are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 18 in HRS; Corn is up 15 1/2; Soybeans up 55 3/4; Soymeal up $1.66; Soyoil up 2.42.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 63 yuan ; Soymeal up 27; Soyoil up 106; Palm oil up 148; Corn up 9 — Malasyian Palm is up 122. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 122 ringgit (+2.48%) at 5036.

There were changes in registrations (-14 Oats). Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 25 Oats; 50 Corn; 573 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 4 were: SRW Wheat up 2,682 contracts, HRW Wheat up 360, Corn up 12,615, Soybeans up 9,861, Soymeal up 2,546, Soyoil up 3,148.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Jan. 4 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 22,500 corn, buyers of 17,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 9,500 soyoil.


  • WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued international tenders to purchase about 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat, 75,000 tonnes of durum wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley


  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 22,000 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice with import using land transport by railway
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat with a limited number of trading companies asked to offer
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

U.S. Weekly Ethanol Production Survey Before EIA Report

(Corrects averages after error found in an analyst’s set of estimates.)

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 31 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.052m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 20.856m bbl vs 20.676m a week ago
  • The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday

Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen at 5-Month Low on Output Woes

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably shrank to the smallest in five months in December as floods and a worker shortage pushed production in the No. 2 grower to the weakest since March.

Inventories fell about 6.6% from a month earlier to 1.70 million tons, according to the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and plantation executives. That’s the lowest level since July.

Crude palm oil production tumbled 9.8% to 1.47 million tons, the smallest since March and the steepest drop in 11 months, the survey showed. That means that Malaysia’s full-year output slumped to a five-year low of about 18.1 million tons, in line with industry estimates for 18 million tons.

The weak showing is largely down to a chronic labor shortage in Malaysian plantations, which fueled a red-hot rally in palm oil futures to all-time highs in October. Output has also suffered from heavy rains and flooding in some parts of the country from late December which disrupted harvesting and transport.

More details from the survey:

  • Stockpile estimates range from 1.66 million to 1.75 million tons; production ranges from 1.39 million to 1.50 million tons
  • Exports vary from 1.35 million to 1.43 million tons
  • Imports were seen easing to 80,000 tons from 97,092 tons in November, while domestic consumption estimates range from 250,000 tons to 290,000 tons

MPOC Sees Palm Oil Demand Rising in Asia, Middle East and Africa

Palm oil demand is set to rise in Asia Pacific, Middle East and African regions with a growing population, higher biodiesel blending mandate and expectations of economic recovery, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

  • Key sectors of growth in Asia include food service industry in the Philippines and Vietnam, packed food sector in Japan and biodiesel in South Korea, Faisal Iqbal, MPOC’S director of marketing and market development, said at a seminar Wednesday
  • APAC accounts for ~30% of Malaysia’s palm oil exports
  • Middle East & North Africa region contributes nearly 15% of total palm oil exports from Malaysia; demand may rise due to global events like Expo Dubai, FIFA 2022 and religious tourism
  • Sub-Saharan Africa also accounts for about 15% of Malaysia’s palm oil exports; population growth will drive demand for the tropical oil as local production of oils and fats could fall short
  • Still, palm oil industry faces challenges such as protectionist policies in the form of non-tariff barriers and restrictions on palm oil use

Bakers to EPA: Food Supply ‘Chaos’ Looms if Biofuel Plan Holds

American bakers say EPA’s plan to boost national biofuel-blending quotas would worsen supply-chain headaches caused by soaring demand for soybean oil used to make food and fuel.

  • EPA should lower its proposed mandate to “prevent even more chaos in our already battered food supply system,” Lee Sanders, SVP of government relations for the American Bakers Association, says Tuesday during EPA hearing on the proposal
  • The agency also should fix its “faulty assumptions” underpinning the plan, she says
    • Soy oil prices were 75% higher than EPA’s impact analysis estimate for 2020-21 and 91% for 2021-22: Sanders
  • Ed Cinco, head of purchasing at Youngstown, Ohio-based Schwebel Baking Co., says surging soy oil prices amid limited supply means food manufactures face potential rationing or shortages in 2022
  • Schwebel, a bread supplier with sales of more than $100m a year, has had to increase prices by double-digit percentages: Cinco
    • “That’s going to get passed along to the end user, causing more of a recession for people who are unemployed”
  • Reily Foods Co., which uses at least 65% vegetable oil to make its Blue Plate mayonnaise, has had to pass some of the higher soy oil costs to consumers, Karen Jensen, a food regulatory expert at the company, says at the EPA hearing
    • “EPA does have a mandate to consider the impact of consumer food costs when setting” biofuel quotas, she says

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Up 3% Y/y, But French Figures Still Lag

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 14m tons as of Jan. 2, versus 13.6m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

  • NOTE: Data for France, one of the EU’s top grain exporters, is only complete until November, commission says
  • NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
  • Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (2.37m tons), Egypt (1.33m tons) and Nigeria (1.13m tons)
  • EU barley exports at 4.52m tons, versus 3.86m tons a year earlier
  • China is the top market at 1.76m tons
  • EU corn imports at 7.33m tons, against 8.66m tons a year earlier

hEDGEpoint cuts Brazil’s 2021/22 soy crop estimate by 6 mln tonnes 

Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop is estimated at 138.5 million tons, nearly 6 million tonnes less than previously projected but still a record volume, hEDGEpoint Global Markets forecast on Tuesday.

The forecast reduction is largely due to the impact of drought on crops in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul states, analysts at the commodities risk management and hedge company told Reuters.

Before the effects of the drought worsened at the end of the year, hEDGEpoint was expecting a harvest of 144.2 million tonnes, above the 142.8 million tons forecast by Brazil’s government crop supply agency Conab.

Brazil brought in 137.3 million tonnes in the last harvest, the current record, according to data from Conab.

Kansas, Oklahoma See Declines in Winter Wheat Conditions: USDA

  • Kansas winter wheat rated good or excellent fell to 33% on Jan. 2 vs 51% on Dec. 12
  • Oklahoma good/excellent rating at 20% vs 48%, previous report was on Nov. 28
  • Figures show the percent of crop rated very poor, poor, fair, good or excellent:

Ukraine 2022 Grain Crops Seen Lower on Weather, Fertilizer: UAC

Ukraine’s wheat harvest in 2022 may total 28.4m tons, with barley at 8.3m tons and corn at 37.8m tons, Kyiv-based researcher UkrAgroConsult says in an emailed report.

  • NOTE: Recent government figures show Ukraine collected 32.7m tonsof wheat, 9.65m tons of barley and 39.82m tons of corn in 2021
  • Unfavorable weather during the autumn planting period is likely to weigh on wheat and barley yields
  • Rapid rise in fertilizer prices could also curb corn and spring-barley plantings, while favoring pulses

Malaysia aims to fully implement B20 biodiesel mandate by year-end

Malaysia plans to implement its nationwide adoption of the B20 palm oil biofuel programme by the end of 2022, the country’s palm oil board said on Wednesday.

The mandate to manufacture biofuel with a 20% palm oil component – known as B20 – for the transport sector was first rolled out in January 2020 but faced delays due to movement curbs imposed to contain coronavirus outbreaks.

“We will do it stage-by-stage basis depending on the government’s financial capabilities,” Ravi Muthayah, the commodities ministry’s secretary general said during a seminar.


LATAM CROP WEATHER: Parched Southern Brazil Sees Irregular Rain

Irregular rain starting Tuesday in Rio Grande do Sul state, in Brazil’s far south, is expected to strengthen and advance north in the coming days, favoring Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul on Wednesday, says Marco Antonio dos Santos, a meteorologist at Rural Clima in Valinhos.

  • Showers will bring relief to parched crops in those states, though some drought losses are already irreversible
  • NOTE: Brazil Soy Crop Seen Falling From a Year Ago on Dryness: StoneX
  • Drier conditions will resume over the weekend, while another rain event in the country’s south may be seen next week
  • Southeast, center-west and northeast will get intermittent showers in the coming days, hampering soybean harvest and crop treatments
  • Windows for fieldwork resumption in center-west may be seen from Jan. 11, weather forecaster Climatempo says in a report


  • Heat and inadequate rain are expected in Argentina this month, potentially increasing crop stress even after favorable precipitation reported in December, Climatempo says
  • In the next seven days, the nation’s west will get the most accumulation, with as much as 30mm expected
  • In Paraguay, which is also struggling amid dryness, some rain relief may be seen this week: Rural Clima

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