Global Ag News for June 14.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 16 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 29; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.69. For the month to date wheat prices are down 27 1/2 in SRW, down 16 in HRW, down 38 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 27 1/2; Soymeal down $7.60; Soyoil up 0.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 37% in SRW, up 44% in HRW, up 23% in HRS; Corn is up 29%; Soybeans up 29%; Soymeal up 2%; Soyoil up 41%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 31 yuan; Soymeal down 79; Soyoil up 22; Palm oil down 12; Corn up 16 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 64 ringgit (+1.10%) at 5857.

There were changes in registrations (-3 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 1,010 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 13 were: SRW Wheat up 6,829 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,621, Corn down 3,275, Soybeans down 8,175, Soymeal up 578, Soyoil down 1,176.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers north Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Saturday-Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Scattered showers southwest through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/13 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 15,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CANCELED WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh government has cancelled the tender dated June 9 for buying 50,000 tons wheat citing “unavoidable circumstances,” Raihanul Kabir, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, says by phone.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 15.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 186,441 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

US Inspected 1.2m Tons of Corn for Export, 605k of Soybean

NOPA May U.S. soybean crush seen at 171.552 million bushels -survey

The U.S. soybean crush in May was estimated to be nearly 5% higher than the same month a year ago, although the average daily processing pace likely declined for a third straight month, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 171.552 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts.

If realized, the crush would be up 1.0% from the 169.788 million bushels processed by NOPA members in April and up 4.9% from the May 2021 crush of 163.521 million bushels. It would also be the largest May crush on record, eclipsing the previous record of 169.584 million bushels posted in 2020.

However, the estimated average crush rate of 5.534 million bushels a day would represent a third monthly decline in the daily processing pace and the lowest average rate since September.

Estimates for the May 2022 crush ranged from 165.400 million to 175.000 million bushels, with a median of 172.000 million bushels.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday. NOPA releases crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies as of May 31 were estimated to have fallen to an eight-month low of 1.765 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from five analysts.

If realized, the soyoil stocks would be down 2.7% from 1.814 billion pounds at the end of April but up 5.6% from the end of May 2021, when oil stocks stood at 1.671 billion pounds.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.738 billion to 1.787 billion pounds, with a median of 1.775 billion pounds.

Ukraine sees sharp drop in grain harvest after Russian invasion

A senior government official said on Monday Ukraine’s grain harvest was likely to drop to around 48.5 million tonnes this year from 86 million tonnes last year following Russia’s invasion.

First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said the total area sown had fallen by 25% and the 2022/23 exportable surplus could be 30 million tonnes, meaning significant loss of revenue.

The wheat harvest would be around 17-20 million tonnes, he said.

Ukraine is usually a major global grain and oilseed grower, but its exports have fallen sharply since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24. Because of a Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, Kyiv is trying to export by road, river and rail. (Full Story)

The fall in production and in exports has stoked fears of a global food crisis and the war, together with Western sanctions against Russia, have sent the price of grain, cooking oil, fertiliser and energy soaring.

Efforts led by Turkey to negotiate safe passage for grain stuck in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has not produced a breakthrough. Kyiv has said Moscow is setting unreasonable conditions and the Kremlin has said free shipment depends on an end to the international sanctions against Russia.

Ukraine sees 2022 harvest of around 48.5 million tonnes – deputy minister

Ukraine’s grain harvest in 2022 will be around 48.5 million tonnes, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said on Monday.

Last year’s harvest was around 86 million tonnes but Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and Vysotskyi said the total area sown in Ukraine had decreased by 25% in 2022.

Vysotskyi told a briefing that the 2022/23 exportable surplus could be 30 million tonnes. He said the wheat harvest would be around 17-20 million tonnes.

MARS Sees Ukraine Wheat, Corn Crops Down 16% on Weather and War

Ukraine’s 2022 wheat harvest is estimated at 26.9m tons, down 16% from last year, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• Barley production may fall 29% y/y to 6.66m tons
• Corn production may fall 16% to 35.3m tons
• Sunflower and soybean crops will also decline, while rapeseed output rises
• Winter crops have been impacted by autumn drought, a colder-than-usual spring and low rainfall in central and western Ukraine
  • Above-normal temperatures ahead could also weigh on yields
• “About 22% of the forecast soft-wheat production, 19% of the forecast winter barley, and 13% of the forecast rapeseed production is in areas that are currently subject to hostilities due to Russia’s war on Ukraine”
  • “Hostilities have also led to a sharp decrease in the area sown to spring and summer crops, which will lead to a lower production of spring barley, grain maize, sunflowers and soybeans”

Ukraine May Have Grain Storage Deficit 10M-15M Tons by October

Ukraine has only 60m tons capacity left after occupation of territories by Russia and destruction of facilities by attacks, deputy agriculture minister Markian Dmytrasevych tells European Parliament committee meeting.

• Ukraine’s total grain storage capacity before Russian military invasion on February 24 was 75m tons
• Grain producers and exporters may run into grain storage capacity deficit of between 10m and 15m tons by October after new harvest of wheat and other crops is collected from fields
• Ukraine sees urgent need to set up temporary grain storages and asks European partners to provide them, so that new grain harvest can be preserved
• NOTE: Ukrainian agriculture analyst UkrAgroConsult improved 2022 corn harvest forecast to 25.7m tons, wheat harvest estimate to 20m tons

China Set to Reach Corn, Soy Intercropping Goal in Two Weeks

China aims to complete this year’s target for intercropping soybeans with corn on more than 1 million hectares of farmland by June 25, according to a statement from the agriculture ministry on Monday.

• Under the plan, farmers seed rows of soybeans between corn, or so-called strip compound planting, which increases soybean production
• The government is looking for ways to boost soybean output to cut the country’s heavy dependence on imports; prices of oilseeds and edible oils have soared because of global shortages; soybeans are crushed to produce cooking oil and animal feed
• Still, the land currently devoted to intercropping is small compared with the total production area; China’s harvested area for corn is 43 million hectares and for soybeans 8.9 million hectares, according to US Department of Agriculture estimates
• The ministry’s goal this year is to use this model on more than 15 million mu across the country, or over 1 million hectares
• More than 6 million mu were planted in the spring season; a further 3.1 million mu have been completed in summer sowing, and the rest is expected to be finished by June 25
• “Some past experience showed average soy yields/mu could reach 130 kg under such a model,” said Bian Tingting, a Shandong-based analyst at Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co. “If it goes smoothly, the 15 million mu may bring 2 million tons of soybeans”
  • To boost soybean output, China may consider high-yield varieties and raise purchase prices/subsidies, Bian said
• NOTE: The area devoted to strip compound planting of corn and soybeans this year is about double last year; it’s an important method for boosting production, the ministry said earlier this year
• Still, it will take a long time to make a significant dent on imports. China’s soybean consumption is estimated at about 109 million tons in 2021-22, with imports at 92 million tons, according to the USDA

Palm Oil Imports by Top Buyer India Declines 10% M/m in May

Inbound shipments fell to 514,022 tons in May from 572,508 tons a month earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Soybean oil imports increased to 373,043 tons from 273,151 tons in April
• Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oils, 1.06m tons tons vs 911,846 tons in April
• Edible oil stockpiles at ports and in the pipeline were 2.25m tons on June 1, compared with 2.24m tons at the start of May
• India’s sunflower oil purchases 118,482 tons vs 54,426 tons a month earlier

Indonesia Cuts Maximum Palm Oil Export Levy to Reduce Stocks

• The maximum levy will be valid until the end of July
• Maximum rate to increase to $240/ton starting in August

Indonesia slashed the maximum crude palm oil export levy by nearly half in another step to speed up shipments after lifting a temporary export ban on the commodity last month.

Exporters must pay the Indonesia Oil Palm Plantations Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS) a maximum levy of $200 a ton for crude palm oil, down from $375 currently, according to a decree posted on the finance ministry’s website late Monday. The new levy is effective Tuesday and will be valid until the end of July. The maximum rate will increase to $240/ton from August 1.

Indonesia Details New Palm Oil Export Rule to Boost Shipments

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil shipper, is working to “flush out” its overflowing stockpiles of palm oil, with exports struggling to restart after a halt in April and May. Palm oil prices dropped to a two-month low on Monday, partly on prospects of surging supply from Indonesia.

The initially higher export levy was intended to fund subsidies for cooking oil. The government has since scrapped that program and instead reimposed a domestic sales quota for exporters to curb a local shortage and tame cooking oil prices. The allocation for exports under this arrangement has been raised to 2.25 million tons from 1 million tons, Director General of Domestic Trade Oke Nurwan said by text message.

So far, 566,614 tons of palm oil are eligible for this type of shipment as of 10 a.m. on Tuesday, Nurwan said. The permits issued to 32 exporters cover 38,570 tons of CPO, 207,581 tons of RBD palm oil, 318,363 tons of RBD palm olein, and 2,100 tons of used cooking oil.

The government also has a separate accelerated export program that allows firms to opt to pay an additional tax to speed up their shipment process. As much as 1.16 million tons of palm oil export has been allocated under this setup that will run until July 31. The rates are $488/ton for crude palm oil, $351/ton for refined bleached deodorized (RBD) palm oil, $392/ton for RBD palm olein, and $488/ton for used cooking oil.

Malaysia Plans to Expand Corn Planting to Reduce Import Reliance

Malaysia will be more proactive in planting corn to reduce reliance on imports for chicken feed as well as stabilize poultry prices and supply, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said in a statement Tuesday.

• The National Farmers Organization has identified 12,140 hectares of land in the states of Kelantan and Terengganu for corn crops
• The Malaysian National Cooperative Force Bhd. has identified 4,000 hectares of land throughout the country
• Each hectare is capable of producing 5 tons of corn and covers as much as 20% of corn import requirements over the next five years

China Harvests 84.1% of Winter Wheat by Tuesday: State TV

China collected 256m Chinese mu (17m hectares) of winter wheat by Tuesday, or 84.1% of the total, the state television reports, citing the agriculture ministry.

Wheat gathering in Henan and Jiangsu provinces have completed while that of Shaanxi province was about 90% of the job and Shandong over 65%