Global Ag News for June 15.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, down 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $0.17; Soyoil down 0.63.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 29 1/4 in SRW, down 33 in HRW, down 24 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 40; Soymeal down $0.87; Soyoil down 1.99. For the month to date wheat prices are down 36 in SRW, down 29 1/4 in HRW, down 49 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal down $9.50; Soyoil down 0.66.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 35% in SRW, up 41% in HRW, up 22% in HRS; Corn is up 29%; Soybeans up 28%; Soymeal up 0%; Soyoil up 38%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 33 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil down 70; Palm oil down 120; Corn down 12 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 178 ringgit (-3.04%) at 5670.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,010 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 14 were: SRW Wheat down 64 contracts, HRW Wheat down 811, Corn down 13,357, Soybeans down 2,014, Soymeal up 2,516, Soyoil down 4,952.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend with some areas of moderate to heavy rain. More showers and thunderstorms developed Monday night across the Dakotas with much of the same. The system causing the rains will move through Tuesday, though the low-pressure center will slowly move through Canada and may bring down some occasional showers as well as strong winds that could cause damage Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will rise well above normal afterward, going into the weekend. The combination of heat and good soil moisture will favor crop growth. Another system will move through over the weekend into early next week with more scattered showers.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A front will move through northern areas over the next couple of days with some shower activity, but heat will build back northward late this week and weekend. Showers will be very isolated or nonexistent elsewhere, with drought likely starting to increase again for those dry areas. Heat and a lack of showers continues across southern areas through the rest of June, though Nebraska is more likely to see fronts bring some showers through.

Midwest Forecast: Heat has built up across the region, but a cold front will move through mid- to late-week to bring temperatures down. The front will also have some scattered showers and potential for severe storms. Heat will build back in over the weekend and next week ahead of the next front, a pattern we will likely see through the end of the month.]

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Widespread moderate to heavy rain developed Monday in the Canadian Prairies and continues through Thursday as a system slowly moves through the region. The system will also come with some strong winds that could cause damage to young crops. Another system will move through this weekend and early next week with more scattered showers. The showers will be good for those drier areas in the southwest as long as flooding does not occur, while eastern areas still need some drier conditions to finish planting. More of this area could go unplanted due to the wetness.

 Europe Forecast: Heat and dryness built back into western Europe over the weekend, and continued across the south, unfavorable for crop growth, but good for maturing wheat. The hot and dry conditions continue until the weekend, when a system should bring more organized showers through this region. To the east, conditions have been much more favorable with good moisture and less stressful temperatures. It will be drier by midweek and temperatures will increase this weekend, but this half of the continent is still in good shape.

The player sheet for 6/14 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday confirmed private sales of 148,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 103,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2021, and the remaining 45,000 tonnes for 2022/23 delivery.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 186,441 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on June 16.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on June 15.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 10 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.043m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.778m bbl vs 23.636m a week ago

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 10.84 Million Tns In June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 10.84 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 9.41 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.79 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.45 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.19 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.03 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Biden Says Working on Plan to Get Wheat Out of Ukraine

President Biden says the US is working on a plan to get wheat through other countries by rail but there are challenges with Ukraine’s train system.

Russia Exported 35.6M Tons of Wheat so Far This Season: IFX

Russia has exported 42.6m tons of grains in total this season, Interfax reported, citing comments from Russian Grain Union analyst Elena Turina.

• That leaves 1.46m tons of grain, including 576,000 tons of wheat to export under the quota until end of June
• Main buyers of Russian wheat during the quota period mid-February through June were Turkey (2.25m tons), Iran (1.73m tons), Egypt (1.556m tons), Turina said

Kazakhstan extends wheat, flour export quotas until Sept.30

Kazakhstan will limit exports of wheat to 550,000 tonnes and wheat flour to 370,000 tonnes until Sept.30, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday, amid concerns about food security across the region due to the war in Ukraine.

Central Asia’s biggest grain exporter limited exports in April to 1 million tonnes of wheat and 300,000 tonnes of wheat flour between April 15 and June 15.

UAE Bans Export and Re-Export of Indian Wheat Until September

The United Arab Emirates “imposes a moratorium on the export and re-export of wheat and wheat flour originating from the Republic of India, including free zones, for a period of four months starting from 13th May, 2022,” the UAE’s Ministry of Economy said in statement.

• The resolution applies to all wheat varieties, namely hard, ordinary, soft wheat and wheat flour
• Decision is due to “the international developments that have affected trade flows and in appreciation of the solid and strategic relations that bind the UAE and India, especially after the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the two countries and the Indian government’s approval to export wheat to the UAE for domestic consumption”

Fertilizer Prices Fall as US Industry Awaits Summer Price Reset

US urea, phosphate and potash prices face extended downward pressure as spring planting nears completion and the industry awaits the release of summer fill programs. The season’s late start and continued wet weather shortened the application window for ammonia, limiting dry-fertilizer volume. US monoammonium-phosphate supply has tightened on lower import volume.

US MAP Supply Tightens as Imports Sag

US April imports revealed lower domestic phosphate supply, despite delayed spring demand. US monoammonium (MAP) phosphate imports through April are 760,870 short tons, the least in five years. US MAP is trading at a $98-per-metric-ton discount to Brazil, which will further discourage shipments from abroad and tighten the market. Morocco’s privately held OCP will increase phosphate-output volume 10% in 2022 in response to a continuing fertilizer shortage. Moroccan and Russian phosphate producers have shifted trade from the US after the country levied countervailing duties, indicating US farmers will be unlikely to directly benefit from the new supply.

Russia Gets RUB175B in Extra Revenue from Grain Export Duty: RBC

Russia’s budget received about 175b rubles in additional revenues from grain export duties in 2021 and in the first months of 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko says in interview to RBC.

• Government will spend this money to support agricultural sector
• 2022 grain harvest seen at about 130m tons, exports may reach about 37m tons; next season grain export may increase to 50m tons

Ukraine’s Farm Industry Has Lost $4.3 Billion From War Damage

• Russia’s invasion has worsened the global food crisis
• Study by Kyiv School of Economics calculates cost of conflict

Ukraine has suffered $4.3 billion in damage to farmland, machinery and livestock as a result of Russia’s invasion, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.

About half of the “already immense” destruction from the war comes from pollution caused by mines and unharvested crops, according to a report by authors Roman Neyter, Hryhorii Stolnikovych, and Oleg Nivievskyi. Almost a quarter of the total — $926 million — accounts for damage done to farm machinery due to military activity and occupation, they write.

The “Ukrainian economy is projected to contract by 45% and dozens of millions across the world are threatened with hunger because of disrupted exports of grains from Ukraine and continued damage of its agri-food sector,” the report said.

Russia’s attacks on key agriculture infrastructure hubs have destroyed large quantities of food. Meanwhile, its blockade of Ukraine’s ports has strangled the country’s exports, cutting off a key source of revenues and worsening a global food crisis that may spur millions of people to migrate. Moscow denies targeting civilian installations and infrastructure, despite widespread evidence to the contrary.

Global food prices are near record highs, with millions of tons of grain and vegetable oil stuck in Ukraine. Efforts to reopen the ports are stumbling, with no sign of progress on a deal, while removing sea mines could take months, according to a UN agency.

Farmland in frontline and formerly occupied areas has a high risk of pollution caused by mines which “imposes a mortal threat to Ukrainian farmers during the field works,” the report said, estimating that $436 million may be needed for demining.

Ukrainian grain shippers have carved out new export routes via the Baltic Sea to send their crops abroad, but sales remain well short of their normal pace, and the country is expected to run out of room to store coming harvests.

The authors calculate that 5.7 million poultry have died due to the war while $613 million worth of grain has been stolen from occupied regions of Ukraine and sent to Russia.

“Farm animals are dying directly because of the hostilities and because of the farmers’ inability to either access the farm or get animal feed and provide animals with needed veterinary support and care,” the report said.

China’s sow herd at end-April down 0.2% from previous month

China’s sow herd at end-April was down 0.2% from the previous month at 41.77 million heads, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday.

The number of sows was also down 4.3% from a year ago, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed.

China Agricultural Dev. Bank Supports Summer Harvest Purchase

Agricultural Development Bank of China announced 30 measures to strengthen credit support for agricultural sector, state-run CCTV reported on Tuesday.

• Bank to provide financial services for important agricultural produce
• Bank to help speed up infrastructure developments in rural areas
• Bank to allow SMEs affected by Covid outbreak to delay loan repayments

China Investigates Former Head of State Strategic Reserves Body

China is investigating the former head of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration for suspected serious disciplinary and legal violations, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said.

Zhang Wufeng is no longer serving as the bureau chief and party secretary of the administration, the CCDI, the highest internal control agency of the Chinese Communist Party, said in a statement posted on its website on Wednesday. The strategic reserves body manages the country’s mammoth state inventories of food and energy.

Zhang had been the head of the administration since it was first established in 2018, according to a profile on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, which oversees the body. Previously, he was an official in the eastern province of Shandong and then the head of China’s State Administration of Grain, which was later merged into the administration.

The NDRC took down Zhang’s profile from its website shortly after the investigation was announced.