Global Ag News for June 16.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $0.03; Soyoil down 0.45.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/2 in SRW, down 28 3/4 in HRW, down 16 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans down 38 1/4; Soymeal down $0.81; Soyoil down 2.27.  For the month to date wheat prices are down 32 3/4 in SRW, down 33 3/4 in HRW, down 44 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13; Soybeans up 15; Soymeal down $10.80; Soyoil down 1.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 37% in SRW, up 42% in HRW, up 23% in HRS; Corn is up 31%; Soybeans up 28%; Soymeal up 2%; Soyoil up 38%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil down 180; Palm oil down 258; Corn up 7 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 115 ringgit (-2.03%) at 5542.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,010 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 15 were: SRW Wheat down 3,941 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,470, Corn up 3,343, Soybeans down 4,719, Soymeal up 6,657, Soyoil down 2,664.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the last several days with some areas of moderate to heavy rain. The system causing the rains will slowly move through Canada and may bring down some occasional showers as well as strong winds that could cause damage Thursday. Temperatures will rise well above normal afterward going into the weekend. The combination of heat and good soil moisture will favor crop growth. Another system will move through over the weekend into early next week with more scattered showers and some cooler temperatures.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A front will sit across northern areas over the next couple of days with some shower activity, but heat will build back northward Friday through the weekend. Showers will be very isolated or nonexistent elsewhere, with drought likely starting to increase again for those dry areas. Heat and a lack of showers continues across southern areas through the rest of June, though Nebraska is more likely to see fronts bring some showers through.

Midwest Forecast: Heat has built up across the region, but a cold front is starting to move through that will bring temperatures down to or slightly below normal for a couple of days. The front will also have scattered showers and potential for severe storms as well. Heat will build back in over the weekend and next week ahead of the next front, a pattern we will likely see through the end of the month. The combination of occasional brief heat and adequate moisture should allow for good crop growth on the whole, at least in the short-term.

Black Sea Region Forecast: Isolated showers continue over Ukraine for the next few days with only some patchy showers in Russia. Temperatures remain mild to warm, favoring crop growth for areas with adequate moisture. Some areas of Russia are a bit drier and will see stress instead. Overall, the region is still in good shape, but could use more showers for summer crops.

Canadian Prairies Forecast: Widespread moderate to heavy rain developed on Monday in the Canadian Prairies and continues through Thursday as a system slowly moves through the region. The system will also come with some strong winds that could cause damage to young crops. Another system will move through this weekend and early next week with more scattered showers. The showers will be good for those drier areas in the southwest as long as flooding does not occur, while eastern areas still need some drier conditions to finish planting. More of this area could go unplanted due to the wetness.

The player sheet for 6/15 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, unchanged corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 186,441 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday reported the cancellation of private sales of 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2021.
• NO OFFERS ON FEED WHEAT OR BARLEY TENDERS: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday. The ministry had sought 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and to arrive in Japan by Nov. 24 in the tender.
• BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.

Argentina to Raise Biodiesel Blend to Ease Fuel Shortage

Argentina will temporarily increase the proportion of biodiesel used in its diesel fuel to 12.5% from the current 5% for 60 days, according to an Economy Ministry statement

• Blend to remain permanently at 7.5% from 5% after the 60 days expire, statement says
• 2.5 ppts would be provided by SMEs that currently supply refiners under Argentine law
• An additional 5 ppts would be provided by all suppliers for a “transitory and exceptional” period of at least 60 days
• NOTES: Argentina cut the blend for soy-based biodiesel last year to 5% from 10%

U.S. May NOPA Soy Crush of 171.1M Bu Falls Below Estimates

• Soybean processing rose to 171.1m bu in May from 163.5m in the same period a year earlier, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data released Wednesday by Thomson Reuters.
• Crushing was below average Bloomberg survey estimate of 173m bu
• Soybean-oil inventories at the end of May rose to 1.774b lbs vs 1.671b lbs a year ago
  • Inventories came in above the average Bloomberg survey analyst estimate of 1.77b lb
• Separately, NOPA on Wednesday revised the March crush to 182.5m bu from the previously reported 181.8m bu

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.9% to 23.197M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.778 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.06m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.043m

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 2.7% in Season Through June 12

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 totaled 25.9m tons as of June 12, versus 25.3m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Wednesday on its website.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (4.67m tons), Egypt (2.59m tons) and China (2.13m tons)
• EU barley exports at 6.85m tons, versus 7.21m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 15.6m tons, versus 14.5m tons a year earlier

Satellite Images Detail Destruction at Major Ukraine Crop Port

• Massive grains complex south of Mykolayiv rendered ‘unusable’
• Nika-Tera complex was one of the biggest terminals in Ukraine

The extent of the damage to one of the biggest agricultural complexes in Ukraine earlier this month was confirmed by satellite images.

The Nika-Tera complex, which was opened in 2011 was rendered “unusable” after Russian shelling at the port of Mykolayiv on June 4th, according to a statement on owner Group DF’s website. Nika-Tera, located south of Mykolayiv at the mouth of the Pivdennyi Buh river, encompasses a grain complex, a fertilizer section and facilities to handle other bulk cargoes.

The satellite images provided by Planet Labs PBC show extensive damage of the structure, which was previously confirmed by the company on its website June 7.

Nika-Tera handled over 7.6 million tons of cargo in 2021 and 7.4 million tons in 2020. Of the total cargo mix, over 60% was oilseeds and cereals, while 30% was bulk cargo and fertilizers around 5%.

Mykolaiv and Odesa are the only two big deep sea exporting ports under Ukrainian control after Mariupol was taken. As much as 35% of Ukrainian grain is handled by those two ports, UkrAgroConsult estimates.

Brazil’s Fertilizer Prices Plunge on Ample Supplies

A pullback in fertilizer demand is driving prices down across Brazil, as farmers restrain buying amid the possibility of further price cuts and sellers seek to offload bloated inventories. Near-term supply appears ample, yet whether there’s enough of the crop nutrient for all of 2H remains an uncertainty.

Indonesia has issued palm oil export permits for over 820,000 T -official

The world’s top palm oil maker Indonesia has issued permits for shipment of 602,142 tonnes of the edible oil under its Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) scheme as of late Wednesday, trade ministry official Oke Nurwan said.

Under the DMO, a company’s export quota is tied to its local sales volume.

Separately, permits for 219,782 tonnes of palm oil exports have been issued for the government’s export acceleration programme where 1.16 million tonnes worth of export quota was allocated, Oke said.

US Fertilizer Markets Pressured as Summer Price Reset Begins

US urea prices face an extended squeeze as spring planting ends and the industry awaits summer fill programs. Urea fills were already out in Canada at significantly lower prices. US monoammonium-phosphate supply has tightened on lower import volume, pushing prices higher at New Orleans, even though summer fill programs in the western US and Canada showed sizable drops.

Low Demand, High Inventories Flag Price Drop:

Brazilian nitrogen and phosphate prices appear to be facing another week of declines ahead of Friday’s final assessments, as suppliers trying to offload inventory and free up space for new cargoes seek to attract customers. Though potash offers seem to have remained stable this week, there may be decreases in coming days. Phosphate offers look to have narrowed by $40 a metric ton, and nitrogen may have slipped $50 a metric ton in ports and in the interior. Demand remains low as most buyers await deeper price cuts.

Heat, humidity kill at least 2,000 Kansas cattle, state says

Extreme heat and humidity killed thousands of cattle in Kansas in recent days, the state said, and sizzling temperatures continue to threaten livestock.

The deaths add pain to the U.S. cattle industry as producers have reduced herds due to drought and grappled with feed costs that climbed as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tightened global grain supplies.

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment knew of at least 2,000 cattle deaths due to high temperatures and humidity as of Tuesday, spokesperson Matthew Lara said. The toll represents facilities that contacted the agency for help disposing of carcasses, he said.

Kansas is the third largest U.S. cattle state behind Texas and Nebraska, with more than 2.4 million cattle in feedlots.

Cattle began suffering heat stress as temperatures and humidity spiked over the weekend in western Kansas and cooling winds disappeared, said Scarlett Hagins, spokesperson for the Kansas Livestock Association. The animals could not acclimate to the sudden change, she said.

“It was essentially a perfect storm,” said AJ Tarpoff, beef extension veterinarian for Kansas State University.

Temperatures reached 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42 degrees Celsius) in northwest Kansas by Monday, said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. This weekend, parts of western Kansas and the Texas panhandle will near 110 degrees, though stronger winds and lower humidity levels will help minimize cattle deaths, he said.

“It’s going to be oppressively hot and stressful for the animals,” Lerner said.

To survive, ranchers are providing cattle with extra water and checking their health.

“You can’t say, ‘Oh I checked them three days ago,'” said Brenda Masek, president of the industry association Nebraska Cattlemen. “When it gets hot, you’ve got be to out every day and making sure that their water is maintained.”

India cuts base import prices of crude palm oil, gold

India has reduced the base import prices of crude palm oil, soyoil, gold and silver, the government said late on Wednesday.

The government revises base import prices of edible oils, gold and silver every fortnight, and the prices are used to calculate the amount of tax an importer needs to pay.

India, the world’s biggest edible oils importer, last month allowed duty-free imports of 2 million tonnes of soyoil.

India Monsoon Rains to Gather Momentum in Next 2-3 Days: IMD

Monsoon rains will improve in India in the next two to three days after a slow start in June, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department.

• Rains have been 32% below normal so far in the June-September monsoon season, Mohapatra said in an interview with Haslinda Aminand Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg TV Thursday
• Sowing of major crops such as paddy may be delayed in some parts of the country because of slow progress of the monsoon in the first half of June
• The rainfall activity has been improving; the monsoon will cover major parts of central and eastern India in next 3 days
• Good rains in the second half of the month are expected to compensate rain shortfall witnessed in the first 15 days of June; any significant adverse impact on crops is not likely, Mohapatra said

China’s sow herd at end-May up on month for the first time in a year

China’s sow herd at the end of May was larger than in April, its first month-on-month increase in a year, an agriculture ministry analyst said on Thursday.

The sow herd rose 0.4% month-on-month to 41.92 million, but was 4.7% lower than a year ago, according to Wang Zuli, an analyst with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

The herd had been contracting in the past year, as falling hog margins pushed some farmers to exit the market. Rising pig prices lately, however, have boosted production.

China’s sow herd at end-May was up 1.86% from the previous month, according to data from Mysteel, a China-based consultancy.

The last pig cycle ended in March when prices hit bottom, and hog prices were expected to rise further, Wang said.