Global Ag News for June 22.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 26 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 21 1/4; Soymeal down $0.14; Soyoil down 2.69.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 71 1/2 in SRW, down 78 3/4 in HRW, down 65 in HRS; Corn is down 39 3/4; Soybeans down 48 3/4; Soymeal down $0.84; Soyoil down 2.38. For the month to date wheat prices are down 84 1/4 in SRW, down 103 in HRW, down 123 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 7.04.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 25% in SRW, up 28% in HRW, up 13% in HRS; Corn is up 27%; Soybeans up 25%; Soymeal up 4%; Soyoil up 27%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 29; Soyoil down 274; Palm oil down 110; Corn down 23 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 470 ringgit (-9.44%) at 4510.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,010 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 21 were: SRW Wheat down 4,029 contracts, HRW Wheat down 41, Corn down 16,609, Soybeans down 3,677, Soymeal up 1,423, Soyoil down 108.

Northern Plains Forecast: Heat will start to develop this week, likely continuing into next week, hastening crop development where it has been a bit behind. With good soil moisture in the region, the higher temperatures will be welcome.

 Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A cold front did move into Nebraska and will sit in northern areas of the region through the rest of the week, occasionally with showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front will push through the region this weekend, perhaps making it down to south Texas by early next week. That could bring more showers and lower temperatures through the region for a few days. Any showers or cooler temperatures would be beneficial for growth for corn and soybeans but have some negative effect on wheat harvest.

Midwest Forecast: A cold front moving through the region will bring temperatures back down over the next couple of days, but only slightly. A stronger cold front will move through this weekend with potentially below normal temperatures for a few days. Scattered showers will be hit-or-miss across the region, helping some areas maintain good soil moisture while the heat is quickly taking away topsoil moisture elsewhere.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  The region will stay active with another system moving through late this week and another front moving through with showers early next week, but showers will be streakier instead of widespread. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride as the systems pass, making for mixed conditions in the region.

 Black Sea Forecast: Conditions have been fair in Ukraine but are declining in Russia. An upper-level low pressure center will move into the region this week with scattered showers, and then down to the Black Sea where it may continue to bring showers to southern areas of the region. This will be a more favorable scenario for finishing winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers.

European Forecast: Periods of showers will continue there through the week as the atmosphere tries to reverse the hot-and-dry pattern of the spring, though it is difficult to determine if the reversal will be enough for corn and spring grains. Germany and eastern areas will be warmer throughout the week, with periods of showers moving through as well. Overall, conditions remain mostly good in eastern areas for maturing winter grains and developing corn and spring grains.

The player sheet for 6/21 had funds: net sellers of 15,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 21,000 corn, sellers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC started buying optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender, with initial purchases estimated around $445 a tonne c&f
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 168,330 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on June 23.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer will issue an international tender to import 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to replenish reserves, an official at the country’s grain purchasing agency said. The deadline for submission of price offers is July 5, the official said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat

US Inspected 1.184m Tons of Corn for Export, 427k of Soybean

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 4.7% in Season Through June 19

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 totaled 26.7m tons as of June 19, versus 25.5m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the UK until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (4.76m tons), Egypt (2.71m tons) and China (2.13m tons)
• EU barley exports at 6.85m tons, versus 7.34m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 16.1m tons, versus 14.9m tons a year earlier

Brazil Winter-Corn Crop May Jump 45% to 89.3m Tons: Agroconsult

Winter-corn production estimate raised from 87.6m tons in May on rising yields and bigger planted area, crop forecaster Agroconsult says in report.

• Planted area seen up 11.5% y/y to 16.4m ha
• Total corn crop may reach 114.8m tons, rising 31% y/y
• Soybean production seen at 126.9m tons in 2021-22, rising by 2.3m tons from the previous estimate in March
• Planted area rose 5.5% y/y to 41.3m ha

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 10.795 mln T in June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.271 MILLION TNS (NOT 2.217 MILLION TNS) IN JUNE VERSUS 2.191 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 10.795 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 10.840 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.758 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.793 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Indonesia Has Issued 1.51M Tons Palm Oil Export Permit: Ministry

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil exporter, has issued a total of 1.51 million ton of palm oil export permit as of Wednesday morning, Oke Nurwan, director general of domestic trade at the trade ministry, says in text message.

• Permits for as many as 613,188 tons issued for export acceleration program that consist of:
  • 49,060 tons of crude palm oil (CPO)
  • 228,107 tons of refined bleached deodorized (RBD) palm oil
  • 331,910 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 4,111 tons of used cooking oil
• While the rest of 894,481 tons of palm oil issued for the domestic market obligation program, known as DMO, consisting of:
  • 55,271 tons of CPO
  • 365,464 tons of RBD palm oil
  • 471,386 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 2,100 tons of used cooking oil

Turkey to Host Black Sea Grain Corridor Meet Within 10 Days: HT

Turkey will host a four-way meeting on a potential grain corridor in Istanbul within 10 days, Haberturk reports, citing sources in the Presidency.

• Doesn’t specify participants; Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary General may join
• Military delegation to visit Russia this week to discuss details
• Meeting to be held with Ukrainian coordination
• Corridor could also transport Russian food products
• Ships would start moving within a month of any agreement

Manitoba Says Extreme Heat Stressed Crops and Delayed Spraying

Extreme weekend heat in Manitoba stressed crops and delayed in-crop spraying, according to report from province’s agriculture ministry.

• Strong winds have limited good spraying days: report
• Seeding progress is 91%, behind five-year average of 100%
• Flea beetles have caused severe damage in many canola crops, spurring multiple insecticide applications or reseeding

China Premier’s Trip to Wheat Farm Shows Lingering Food Worries

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited a wheat farm in a province neighboring the capital, underscoring his government’s lingering worries about food security.

Li stressed the importance of the wheat harvest this year while touring a farm in Gaobeidian, a city in the northern province of Hebei, China Central Television said on Tuesday. “Everyone should work hard to make sure we hold tight the rice bowls of 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said.

The outgoing premier also said that both food and energy security needed to be ensured while the government balances controlling Covid-19 and economic growth, the state broadcaster reported. While visiting an electric company in Zhuozhou city, Li said demand for power this summer would require officials to “release advanced capacity of coal production.”

Earlier this month, President Xi Jinping reviewed efforts to boost domestic grain production in Sichuan province, as Russia’s war destabilizes global food security. China is one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, leaving it particularly exposed to the effects of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a major shipper of grains such as barley, corn and wheat.

That’s prompted the Asian nation’s state stockpiling company to buy newly harvested wheat for national reserves at record prices this month.

China’s agricultural ministry recently sent teams to central and eastern parts of the country as searing heat and a lack of rainfall threaten to hamper summer planting of corn and soybeans. Maximum temperatures have ranged from 35 to 40 degree Celsius in Henan, Hebei and Shandong provinces since June 15.

That’s drying up the soil, which is bad for the sowing of crops, the ministry said Sunday. Its staff will ensure summer field management and planting goes smoothly by helping exploit water resources and applying anti-drought fertilizers, it said.

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