Global Ag News for Mar 18.22

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are down 11 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal up $0.47; Soyoil down 1.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.02; Soyoil down 1.67. For the month to date wheat prices are up 153 in SRW, up 131 1/2 in HRW, up 80 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 61 3/4; Soybeans up 43 1/4; Soymeal up $32.50; Soyoil up 1.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 41% in SRW, up 35% in HRW, up 10% in HRS; Corn is up 27%; Soybeans up 26%; Soymeal up 16%; Soyoil up 32%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal up 35; Soyoil up 98; Palm oil down 70; Corn up 22 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 304 ringgit (-5.12%) at 5632.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 15 Corn; 247 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 28 were: SRW Wheat up 5,024 contracts, HRW Wheat up 659, Corn down 1,025, Soybeans down 608, Soymeal up 147, Soyoil up 2,872.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday.

The player sheet for 3/17 had funds: net buyers of 10,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 20,000 corn, buyers of 11,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought 270,000 tonnes of wheat in an international import tender on Thursday
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 104,483 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section bought 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender allowing optional origins and which closed on Thursday
• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• BARLEY SALE: Algerian state agency OAIC is believed to have purchased animal feed barley from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase about 45,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Two importer groups in the Philippines have issued separate tenders to purchase together a total of around 270,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued another international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

IGC Cuts Global Grain Trade Outlook 9m Tons on War in Ukraine

Global grains trade in the 2021-22 season is now seen at 415m tons, versus a February estimate of 424m tons, International Grains Council says in a report.

• Black Sea port loadings are suspended in Ukraine, and efforts to increase shipments via railway will still likely keep volumes limited
• “While the extent of infrastructure losses is unknown, potential damage to port facilities, railroads and storage silos could impact shipments over the longer term”
• Export volumes from Russia may also be hampered by trade-finance restrictions and rising ocean-freight insurance
• Extra sales from other origins like India, U.S., EU will only partially offset those losses for the remainder of this season
• IGC sees “significant downside risks” for Ukraine’s 2022-23 grain and oilseed harvests, which could exacerbate export shortfalls
  • “Access to some fields is currently impossible”
• Crisis raises concerns about more protectionism worldwide and potential consequences for food-insecure nations

OTHER ESTIMATES:

• World grain stockpile outlook rises to 607m tons, from 596m tons
• Global soybean production cut to 350m tons, from 353m tons
  • Stockpile outlook trimmed to 42m tons, from 43m tons

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates March 17: Exchange

• 2021-22 Production estimates maintained for both corn and soybean crops
• Corn harvest advances to 6.9% complete from 5.7%

Argentina Low Soy Yields Pose Risk to Bourse’s 42m-Ton Forecast

The first soy plants are being collected on the Pampas crop belt, and if low yields reported so far persist as the harvest progresses, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange would cut its production estimate, analysts led by Esteban Copati say in a weekly report.

• For now, the exchange maintains its estimate of 42m metric tons

Brazil’s Winter-Corn Crop Seen Up 52% to 92.2m Tons: Agroconsult

The winter-corn crop, also called safrinha, may reach a record this year due to an increase in planted area and bigger yields, according to Brazil’s crop forecaster Agroconsult.

• Planted area is up 7%
• Production last season was 61m tons, hurt by weather issues
  • In 2019-20 season, harvest totaled 76.7m tons
• Soybean crop seen falling 10.6% y/y to 124.6m tons
  • That’s 19.7m tons below the initial forecast for the crop

Brazil Winter-Corn Crop Seen at Record After Good Plantings

Brazil’s 2021-22 winter-corn crop, also called safrinha, may rise 52% y/y to 92.2m tons, a record high, due to an increase in planted area and bigger yields, according to Brazil’s crop forecaster Agroconsult.

• Planted area is up 7% to 15.7m ha
• Production last season was 61m tons, hurt by weather issues
  • In 2019-20 season, harvest totaled 76.7m tons
• About 60%-70% of crop was planted in the ideal period, according to Valmir Assarice, an analyst at Agroconsult
  • Beneficial rain that is expected through mid-April should be enough for a good crop, he said at a press conference
• Crops in Parana’s north and in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias are under higher weather risk
• Farmers have been holding advanced sales amid the outlook on rising demand in the coming months, Agroconsult head Andre Pessoa says
• Soybean crop seen falling 10.6% y/y to 124.6m tons
  • That’s 19.7m tons below the initial forecast for the crop

Argentina Says It Will Guarantee Fertilizer Supplies for Wheat

Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez met with the head of Argentine fertilizer group Ciafa, Armando Allinghi, to discuss guaranteeing supplies of fertilizer and other phytosanitary products for the upcoming wheat and barley season in the South American nation, according to a ministry statement.

Brazil Soy-Area Expansion May Slow on Input Risks: Agroconsult

Brazil’s soybean area growth is seen between 500,000 ha and 850,000 ha in the 2022-23 crop that farmers start planting in September, Andre Pessoa, head of forecaster Agroconsult, says in a virtual press conference.

• Expansion will be as slow as 1.2%, compared with 4% in the previous season, due to rising costs and uncertainties on fertilizer and chemicals supplies
  • In 2021-22, soybean planted area totaled 40.8 mln ha
• “Brazilian farmers won’t reduce planted area, but will think twice before expanding amid rising risks for them and theirs suppliers”
• Farmers have room to reduce fertilizer applications without jeopardizing yields by using residues in soil of nutrients that were applied in the previous seasons
  • Brazil has enough time to find alternatives for Russia’s fertilizer supplies for plantings in the second half, but farmers need to anticipate orders
• Fertilizer availability depends on how serious logistic troubles will be
  • Supply concern is higher on potash as Canada is the only nation able to fill Russia’s gap
• Brazil’s soybean exports seen at 78.5m tons in 2022

Indonesia Sets Progressive CPO Export Levies as Price Gains

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, is adding new brackets to its export levy policy to include a range of CPO price between $1,000 and $1,500 a ton, according to Eddy Abdurrachman, president director of the Indonesia Oil Palm Plantations Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS).

• Under the revised policy, the CPO levy payable to the agency will be raised by $20/ton for every price increase of $50/ton, and $16/ton for processed products
  • The maximum levy is set at $375/ton for when price hits above $1,500/ton
  • For March, the levy will be increased from $175/ton to $335/ton in March
  • The new exports levies are effective from March 18
  • Used cooking oil, typically used for blending in biodiesel production, is also subject to the new levy
• Separately, Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi told a parliamentary hearing late Thursday that at current CPO prices, the total export duties (including those paid separately to the government) could be increased from $375/ton to $575/ton, revising his earlier comments

Indonesia’s Feb. Palm Oil Exports Falls 5.7% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia shipped 1.62m tons of palm oil overseas in February, a 5.7% decrease from the previous month, according to surveyor Intertek Testing Services in an emailed statement on Friday.

• Feb. shipments by grade:
  • 34,000 tons of crude palm oil
  • 367,351 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 713,109 tons of RBD palm oil
• Feb. versus Jan. sales by destination:
  • European Union at 397,806 tons vs. 411,301 tons
  • India and subcontinent at 479,707 tons vs. 477,751 tons
  • China at 148,286 tons vs. 102,597 tons

China Soy Imports Seen at Record 100 Million Tons in 22-23: USDA

China’s 2022-23 soybean imports may rise to 100 million tons, a record high, on signs of rising livestock feed demand, supply shortfalls and higher prices for protein-rich substitutes, the USDA’s FAS attache unit says in a report posted Thursday on its website.

• Imports in 2021-22 marketing year seen at 95m tons; Compares with USDA’s forecast of 94 million in March WASDE report
• Soybean imports seen driven by greater feed demand as a result of larger sow and hog inventories after the African swine fever outbreak depleted herds in 2018; Bigger poultry production capacity will also drive demand
• Total oilseed production for 2022-23 seen up 2.3% at 62.4m tons from 61m tons a year earlier
  • Output seen rising amid higher subsidy rates for soybeans and robust prices and demand for oilseeds in general
• Soybean crush volume for 2022-23 seen rising 2.1% y/y to 98.5m tons from 96.5m tons
• Government efforts to lower soybean meal inclusion rates likely won’t significantly affect overall demand due to higher prices for other feed grains
  • Availability is limited for other protein meals, such as sunflower seed meal shipments from Ukraine

China Imports January 2022

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Jan. Corn Imports 2.75M Tons, -8.6% Y/y
• Jan. wheat imports 1.51m tons, +0.6% y/y
• Jan. sugar imports 410,000 tons, -33.6% y/y
• Jan. cotton imports 230,000 tons, -43.1% y/y
• Jan. edible palm oil imports 80,000 tons, -84.1% y/y
• Jan. rice imports 580,000 tons, +3.2% y/y
• Jan. barley imports 690,000 tons, -5% y/y
• Jan. sorghum imports 1.13m tons, +63.2% y/y
• Jan. pork imports 150,000 tons, -60.4% y/y
• Jan. beef imports 150,000 tons, -36% y/y

China Imports February 2022

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Feb. Corn Imports 1.93M Tons, +8.4% Y/y
  • YTD corn imports fell 2.3% y/y to 4.68m tons
• Feb. wheat imports 680,000 tons, -30.4% y/y
  • YTD wheat imports fell 11.6% y/y to 2.19m tons
• Feb. sugar imports 410,000 tons, -5.3% y/y
  • YTD sugar imports fell 22% y/y to 820,000 tons
• Feb. cotton imports 190,000 tons, -36.1% y/y
  • YTD cotton imports fell 40.1% y/y to 410,000 tons
• Feb. edible palm oil imports 90,000 tons, -66.8% y/y
  • YTD edible palm oil imports fell 78% y/y to 170,000 tons
• Feb. rice imports 550,000 tons, +59.8% y/y
  • YTD rice imports rose 24.7% y/y to 1.13m tons
• Feb. barley imports 480,000 tons, -18.6% y/y
  • YTD barley imports fell 11.1% y/y to 1.18m tons
• Feb. sorghum imports 460,000 tons, -35.4% y/y
  • YTD sorghum imports rose 13% y/y to 1.59m tons
• Feb. pork imports 130,000 tons, -60.4% y/y
  • YTD pork imports fell 60.4% y/y to 280,000 tons
• Feb. beef imports 160,000 tons, -3.4% y/y
  • YTD beef imports fell 22.7% y/y to 310,000 tons

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Steady in Week to March 14: AgriMer

The share of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition was at 92% as of March 14, even with the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Spring barley was 90% planted, versus 76% the prior week
• Compares with 96% at this time last year

Canadian Wheat Growers express concerns about ‘inconceivable’ CP Rail work stoppage

The association responsible for wheat growers in Canada’s Prairies says the potential Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. job action is concerning.

Teamsters Canada Rail Conference reported members voted 96 per cent in favour of a work stoppage earlier this month. Wages, benefits and pensions are the main issues behind potential job action.

Canada’s federal labour minister was given notice by CP rail it intended to lock its workers out by Sunday.

On Thursday morning, the Western Canadian Wheat Growers added its voice to those expressing concern about the vote and the potential damage it could have on grain farmers.

“It is inconceivable that grain farmers would be facing a CP rail stoppage at this time,” chair and Saskatchewan director Daryl Fransoo said in published statement.

“After a historic poor crop last year, devastating floods in B.C., unseasonable winter conditions and now a war in Ukraine, grain farmers question whether the rail parties understand the impact of a stoppage.”

The statement from the wheat growers said rising inflation and rising costs of farming grain are contributing to the “very real” possibility of wheat shortages in the coming months, which would be a blow to food security overall.

China calls for quick output resumption at suspended fertilizer firms

China’s state planner said on Friday all regions need to ensure supply and stable prices of fertilizers, and it called for quick resumption of production at any shuttered companies.

The National Development and Reform Commission also reiterated the need to stabilize grain output and ensure food security.

NOAA says drought likely to expand, worsen in western U.S.

A severe drought that has gripped parts of the western United States since mid-2020 is likely to persist or worsen this spring due to expected above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday.

Dry conditions will enhance the risk of wildfires across the Southwest and southern U.S. Plains and stress farms in California, the nation’s top agricultural producer, NOAA said in its spring outlook.

More than 60% of the continental United States is already classified as being under minor drought or worse, the broadest area since 2013, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.

“Prolonged, persistent drought will continue to impact much of the West and drought is forecast to develop during April through June in areas of the Southwest and central and southern Plains,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said during a webinar.

However, drought conditions are expected to lessen or end in the upper Midwest and in coastal areas of the Southeast, he said.

The harsh pattern in the West is likely to heap further pressure on communities already on edge after recent years of severe wildfires and shrinking water reserves.

Water levels on Lake Powell, which provides water for Nevada, Arizona and California, are record low.

The drought has already forced farmers in the country’s top crop state to conserve water by reducing production or watering fruit and nut trees just to keep them alive.

“Since the beginning of the 21st century, about three out of four years in California have been drought years. That has led producers to have to adapt to the new normal, which is drought more often than not,” said Brad Rippey, meteorologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“It does make for some very difficult producer decisions as to what to continue to grow and what to keep alive,” he said.

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 28.3% Week Ended March 9

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 10% Last Week