Global Ag News For Mar 26

 TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 1 cent; HRW down 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 30 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 15 cents; HRW down 20; HRS down 7; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans down 1 cent; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 35 points. Crushing margins are down 2 cents at $0.58 (July); Oil share up 1% at 39%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 166 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 374 in Soyoil, and down 332 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 175 ringgit at 3,688 (basis June) following rival vegoils.

South America Weather Forecast: Significant rain will continue in Argentina through Saturday with the greatest new moisture totals expected in the north and southeast parts of the nation. A period of drier conditions will then benefit fieldwork advancement in Argentina before more rain arrives later in the first week of April. Net drying in much of Brazil will continue to benefit fieldwork advancement. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is still expected to return to the drier areas of Brazil in early April but with resulting moisture that is below normal.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was notably cooler in most U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains April 6 – 9. This solution is out of line and not expected. Temperatures will likely be above to well above average in this timeframe with a ridge of high pressure in the central U.S.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; net sold 13,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 12,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 330,000 Corn; net long 146,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 88,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 75 contracts; HRW Wheat down 20; Corn up 2,000; Soybeans down 120 contracts; Soymeal up 1,100, and; Soyoil down 1,500.

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 100)—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710.

Tender Activity—S. Korea feed groups bought 196,000t optional-origin feed wheat—S. Korea passed on 55,000t optional-origin corn—S. Korea seeks 12,000t optional-origin soybeans–

For the week ended March 18^th

U.S All Wheat sales are up 1%, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

By class, HRW wheat sales down 9%, shipments down 4%, with USDA down 7%

SRW down 23%, shipments down 30% (USDA down 18%)

HRS up 2%, shipments up 2% (USDA up 6%)

Corn up 111%, shipments up 88% (USDA) up 46%

Sorghum up 154%, shipments up 197% (USDA) up 45%

Soybeans up 70%, shipments up 75% (USDA up 34%)

Soymeal up 2%, shipments up 11% (USDA up 1%)

Soyoil down 24%, shipments down 6% (USDA down 8%)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday that the nation’s swine herd was 2% smaller as of March 1 compared to a year earlier, surprising industry analysts who were expecting about the same number of pigs. Some farmers euthanized hogs or performed abortions on pregnant sows after COVID-19 outbreaks temporarily closed slaughterhouses in spring 2020, removing markets for livestock. The USDA said in a quarterly report that the swine herd totaled 74.773 million pigs as of March 1, 2021. That was down from 76.179 million a year earlier and below the average analyst estimate of 76.230 million.

The Energy Information Administration said on Thursday it will expand biofuels data in its monthly report to account for the growth in U.S. production of renewable fuels. Changes in the next report to be released on March 31 will include expanded coverage of production capacities for biodiesel, fuel alcohol and renewable fuels, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said. It will cover data for January. The EIA will also expand reporting on feedstocks used in the production of those fuels. The new expanded report, the Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update, will replace the Monthly Biodiesel Production Report, EIA said.

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday forecast global grain production would climb to a record 2.287 billion tonnes in the 2021/22 season, but expects the larger supply to be entirely absorbed by higher consumption.

Fitch Ratings-Beijing/Shanghai-25 March 2021: Record high grain prices have increased costs for Chinese protein and food companies that use grains as a key input, but the extent of pressure on company margins depends on their ability to control operating costs, pricing power and business diversification. We expect China’s grain prices to stay elevated in 2021 as hog breeders rebuild herds that were decimated by African swine fever (ASF). Herds of hog and sow had largely recovered to pre-ASF levels as of end-February 2021, according to official data, and we expect high pork prices to encourage farmers to maintain herd population growth in the short term.

China’s imports of Australian wheat have exploded despite their ongoing political tensions, with Australia’s bumper wheat harvest continuing to plug shortages of the grain from other key markets.

Purchases of wheat by China from Australia over the first two months of the year were 479.3 per cent more than the amount acquired over the same period last year, latest data from China’s customs showed, even though its overall imports from Australia have fallen slightly.

Some Australian hay suppliers have not received permits to export to China, the Global Times reported late on Thursday citing Chinese industry sources, in the latest escalation of trade tensions between the two countries. In a separate report on Wednesday, ABC News said Australia’s $160-million hay export market to China could be the latest casualty in the ongoing trade tensions, with 28 Australian hay exporters to China failing to get their expired permits renewed since the end of February.

Brazilian meatpacker JBS SA anticipates strong demand for meat this year from China as the Asian country’s pork herd is still recovering from an outbreak of African swine fever which disrupted domestic production. JBS executives said it was not entirely clear when China would be able to fully recover its herd, meaning the country will continue to rely on food imports.

Rains over recent days in Argentina have come in time to prevent further losses in 2020/21 soybean yields, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, two weeks after it cut the season’s crop estimate due to months of dry weather. The exchange earlier this month cut its 2020/21 harvest forecast to 44 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 46 million tonnes.

Argentine farmers have sold 12.45 million tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans, after registering transactions in a week for 552,500 tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The soybean harvest for the current campaign is expected to be around 44 million tonnes. The ministry pointed out that the speed of soy sales is slower than a year earlier, when at the same date it had registered soybeans sales of 17.45 million tonnes. The soy harvest in the 2019/20 season was 49 million tonnes.

The suspension of traffic through the Suez Canal has deepened problems for shipping lines that were already facing disruption and delays in supplying retail goods to consumers, shipping sources said.

Container shipping companies, carrying products ranging from mobile phones and designer goods to bananas, have been struggling for months with disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a surge in demand for retail goods that led to wider logistical bottlenecks around the world.

Euronext wheat extended losses on Thursday to a 2-1/2 month low as a lull in export demand continued to weigh on cash prices while a favorable harvest outlook in the northern hemisphere eased supply concerns. Front-month May milling wheat settled down 4.50 euros, or 2.1%, at 214.50 euros ($252.49) a tonne. It earlier fell to 213.50 euros, its weakest since Jan. 11 and well below a five-week low of 217.50 euros from Wednesday.

Vietnam’s rice export prices hit a more than nine-year high this week as fresh orders trickled in, while rates for the Indian variety held near a one-month peak on healthy demand from buyers in other Asian countries and Africa.