Global Ag News for Mar 30

TODAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 4 cents; HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil down 75 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 44 yuan in soybeans, down 23 in Corn, down 21 in Soymeal, down 60 in Soyoil, and down 32 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 105 ringgit at 3,647 (basis June) at midsession awaiting Malaysian, USDA government updated data.

South America Weather Forecast: In Brazil, some greater rain will gradually start to occur in northern areas late this week into next week which will help promote some increase of topsoil moisture.  Conditions in Argentina are still expected to be favorable over the next two weeks.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Opportunity remains for some greater precipitation in the Northern Plains after this upcoming weekend. Last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in the Northern Plains in the second week of the outlook.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 16,000 Corn; net sold 6,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 5,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 364,000 Corn; net long 132,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 75,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,100; Corn up 2,800; Soybeans up 1,300 contracts; Soymeal down 1,900, and; Soyoil down 3,200.

There were changes in registrations (HRS Wheat down 457)—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 253.

Tender Activity—Algeria seeks optional-origin milling wheat—

Wire story reports greatly improved profitability levels have lifted U.S. farmers’ enthusiasm for the 2021 planting season, but market watchers’ anticipation of U.S. government planting numbers due on Wednesday has reached a fever pitch, and the trade estimates in particular deserve some attention. Chicago corn and soybean prices have remained relatively stagnant in recent weeks compared against the steep rally in the last few months of 2020. Wednesday’s survey-based acreage numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, along with quarterly grain stocks, are expected to provide clearer market direction.

Weekly USDA wheat ratings improve in Kansas; decline in Oklahoma, Texas

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 50% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 45% a week earlier.
• For Texas, the USDA rated 28% of the crop as good to excellent, down from 29% the previous week.
  • The Texas corn crop was 50% planted, ahead of the state’s five-year average of 46%.
• For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 61% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 62% a week earlier.
• For Colorado, the USDA rated 28% of the winter wheat as good to excellent, a drop from 33% a week earlier.
• For Montana, the USDA in a monthly report rated 54% of the wheat crop as good to excellent, down from 69% at the end of February.
• For Nebraska, the USDA in a monthly report rated 38% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent, up from 34% at the end of February.
• For South Dakota, the USDA in a monthly report rated 31% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent, down from 41% at the end of February.
• In Illinois, the USDA in a monthly report rated 70% of the crop as good to excellent, up from 46% at the end of February.
• In North Carolina, the USDA in a monthly report rated 39% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent, up from 32% in late February.
• The USDA rated 52% of the Louisiana winter wheat crop, 59% of Mississippi’s wheat and 59% of Arkansas’ wheat as good to excellent.
  • Corn planting was 74% complete in Louisiana, 24% complete in Mississippi and 4% complete in Arkansas.

Wheat exports are running down 1% versus down 1% a week ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year

Corn up 86% (up 89% last week); USDA up 46%

Soybeans up 72% (up 73% last week) with the USDA up 34% on the year

U.S. inspections of corn exports have backed off this week, although remain strong. In its weekly export inspection report released Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that export inspections of U.S. corn totaled 1.7 million metric tons for the week ended March 25. That’s down from 2.02 million tons the previous week. Japan, China and Mexico were the main destinations for U.S. corn over the past week – with Japan being the main buyer at 423,010 tons.

The sowing of Brazil’s second corn crop reached 98% of the estimated area for the Center-South of the country through last Thursday, according to a report by AgRural. Despite a delay in plantings that caused many farmers to sow the cereal outside the ideal climate window, Brazil’s second corn crop is developing well across the region. This year, the consultancy estimates production of Brazil’s second corn crop at 80.6 million tonnes in the Center-South, based on historical productivity trends.

Farmers had harvested 71% of Brazil’s soy area through last Thursday, below the 76% harvested at the same time last year. The consultancy estimates Brazil produced a record 133 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season.

PERSISTENT BRAZIL DRYNESS IS CONCERING FOR 2ND CROP CORN ENTERING APRIL – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Hard late-March rains in Argentina have set the stage for smooth wheat and barley sowing, but the storms arrived too late to help corn and soy yields in areas that had been pounded by months of dry weather, farmers and crop analysts said on Monday.

Russian wheat export prices fell sharply last week – extending their fall to the fourth consecutive week – amid weak demand and lower prices in Chicago and Paris, analysts said. Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, imposed several export curbs on its main agriculture products in recent months and plans more of them to tame the country’s rising food inflation. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in April was at $257 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $16 from the previous week, agriculture consultancy IKAR said. Sovecon, another consultancy, said wheat prices fell by $21 to $253 a tonne,

Ukraine’s wheat exports in the 2020/21 July-June season will not reach the previously predicted volume of 17.5 million tonnes, deputy Ukrainian economy minister said. The current pace of shipments were slower than expected and by 500,000 tonnes less than the ministry had forecast for this day.

Ukraine, the world largest sunflower oil exporter, is likely to produce 5.920 million tonnes of sunoil in the 2020/21 season and export 5.520 million tonnes, the economy ministry said. The ministry gave no comparative data for 2019/20. APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has said Ukraine produced 7.03 million tonnes of sunoil in the 2019/20 season which runs from September to August, and exported 6.63 million tonnes of the commodity.

In the 2020/21 season, the consultancy forecast Ukraine could produce 6.02 million tonnes of sunoil and would export 5.6 million tonnes.

The ministry said Ukraine also would produce 220,000 tonnes of soy oil and 100,000 tonnes of rape oil. Most of them will be exported.

The ministry said Ukraine would also export most of its 2.59 million tonne rapeseed harvest, leaving only 266,000 tonnes for the domestic market. It said 2.376 million tonnes of rapeseed had been exported so far in the 2020/21 season, out of an expected exportable surplus of 2.4 million tonnes for the whole season.

Ukraine has also exported 1.07 million tonnes of soy beans so far, and this season’s exports could total 1.64 million tonnes.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 19.79 million tonnes by March 28, data published by the European Commission showed; that was down from 25.62 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

—EU 2020/21 barley exports had reached 5.72 million tonnes, against 5.87 million a year ago

—EU 2020/21 maize imports stood at 11.65 million tonnes, down from 15.95 million

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 11.02 million tonnes by March 28, data published by the European Commission showed. That compared with 10.61 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

—EU rapeseed imports in 2020/21 had reached 4.94 million tonnes, compared with 4.93 million a year ago.

—Soymeal imports so far in 2020/21 were at 12.57 million tonnes against 13.31 million a year earlier

—Palm oil imports were at 4.07 million tonnes versus 4.29 million a year ago.