Global Ag News for Mar 5

TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 5 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 7 cents; HRW down 12; HRS up 3; Corn is down 9 cents; Soybeans up 4 cents; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil up 80 points. Crushing margins are down 5 cents at $0.61 (July); Oil share up 1% at 37%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 30 yuan in soybeans, up 31 in Corn, down 17 in Soymeal, up 72 in Soyoil, and up 62 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 10 ringgit at 3,741 (basis May) supported by a weaker ringgit.

In Argentina, dryness continues to be a serious concern and crop stress will continue until a generalized soaking rain occurs. Conditions in the nation will be notably dry through Tuesday before some opportunity for at least a little greater moisture. A frontal boundary is likely to move into Argentina Wednesday and Thursday with “some” shower and thunderstorm activity. Yesterday’s midday European Model run was notably aggressive with rain from this in the southern part of the nation. Last evening’s GFS model run showed much less rain than the European Model.

Conditions in much of Brazil will continue to be favorable the next two weeks.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 2,000 contracts of Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 329,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 121,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 635 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,000; Corn down 2,800; Soybeans up 8,200 contracts; Soymeal up 5,700 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,400.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 18 Rice; ZERO Corn; 100 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.

There were changes in registrations—(Oats down 3, Soybeans down 8, HRW Wheat down 36)—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; 7 Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 62; Soyoil 1,248 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,010; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710.

Tender Activity—Algeria seen having bought 30,000t optional-origin corn—S.Korea seeks 140,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Philippines bought 55,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt bought 60,000t optional-origin soyoil—

U.S All Wheat sales are up 3%, shipments down 3% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase. By class, HRW wheat sales down7%, shipments down 2%, with USDA down 2%. SRW down 24%, shipments down 31% (USDA down 18%). HRS up 4%, shipments down 2% (USDA up 6%). Corn up 122%, shipments up 82% (USDA) up 46%. Soybeans up 77%, shipments up 78% (USDA up 34%).  Soymeal unchanged, shipments up 15% (USDA up 1%). Soyoil down 18%, shipments down 10% (USDA down 3%)

February and March are perhaps the two most important months for Argentina’s corn and soybeans to receive ample rainfall, though last month was unusually dry and this month could follow suit, according to the latest weather forecasts. Yields in the No. 3 corn and soybean exporter are not projected to be great anyhow, though the poor timing of the latest dry spell could reduce potential even further. Crop condition ratings may also be sending mixed and potentially faulty messages to the market.

According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, just 10% of Argentina’s soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of Thursday, a shockingly low portion. However, some 70% of the crop is in normal condition, meaning that 20% of the crop is in fair or bad condition, up from 15% last week. The exchange’s ratings have just those three categories, while scores from Argentina’s agriculture ministry use four: very good, good, fair and bad. The ministry shows ratings at the sub-provincial level, so it would be up to the user to derive a national number.

• CHINA SAYS TO RAISE MINIMUM PURCHASE PRICE FOR WHEAT AND RICE APPROPRIATELY IN 2021 -WORK REPORT
• CHINA SAYS TO EXPAND PRODUCTION OF EDIBLE OILSEEDS IN 2021 – WORK REPORT
• CHINA SAYS TO ENSURE SECURITY OF ANIMAL, PLANT BREEDING RESOURCES IN FIVE YEARS TO 2025 – PREMIER LI
• CHINA SAYS TO ENSURE STABLE SUPPLIES, PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN 2021- WORK REPORT
• CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS TO SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF GRAINS ON BARREN LAND
• CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS TO CONTINUE TO REBUILD PIG PRODUCTION IN 2021
• CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS TO INCREASE LAND AREA FOR PLANTING OF CORN, KEEP SOYBEAN OUTPUT STABLE IN 2021
• CHINA SAYS WILL SPEND 122.5 BLN YUAN ON STOCKPILING GRAIN EDIBLE OIL RESERVES IN 2021, SAME AS IN 2020
• CHINA SAYS IN FIVE YEAR PLAN TO ORDERLY ADVANCE INDUSTRIAL APPLICATION OF BIO-BREEDING IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

China’s first hog breeding exchange traded fund (ETF) makes its debut on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Friday, the first of three tied to the country’s booming pork sector that is rebuilding after African swine fever decimated herds in 2018. Chinese hog producers raked in huge profits last year after African swine fever caused pork supplies to collapse and hog prices to surge. Flush with cash, producers are now investing in new, industrialized breeding facilities to rebuild herds, replacing traditional small-scale farms.

Farmers in Brazil fed some 10% of the world’s 7.76 billion population last year, a study released on Thursday by state-run agricultural research agency Embrapa found. The study focused on Brazil’s grains and oilseeds production as these are considered basic food staples that can be either used for direct human consumption or as animal feed for meat processing, Embrapa’s statement said. The findings highlight the country’s strength as a global farming powerhouse, as the South American nation went from being a net food importer in recent decades to become the world’s largest exporter of produce like soybeans, beef and chicken that it sells to China, the European Union and many others.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that it could cut its harvest forecast for Argentina’s 2020/21 soy crop, currently 46 million tonnes, if it does not rain sufficiently in key producing areas over the weeks ahead.

Regarding 2020/21 corn, whose production estimate is also 46 million tonnes, the exchange said the lack of rain in eastern Argentina also threatens yields.

A mild Russian winter has dramatically improved the condition of winter grain sowings, which were previously hit by a dry autumn, weather forecaster Hydrometcentre said, signalling brighter prospects for the country’s 2021 crop.

Ukraine’s 2021 spring grain sowing is likely to be postponed until next week because of wet fields and cold weather, the deputy economy minister said.

French soft wheat shipments outside the European Union increased in February as loadings to Algeria and Morocco rose again, offsetting a lull in exports to China. Soft wheat exports by sea to destinations outside the EU and Britain came to 821,000 tonnes in February, the eighth month of the 2020/21 season. That was up sharply from 561,000 tonnes in January and also slightly above the December volume, although below a season’s high of 877,000 tonnes in November.

European rapeseed futures rose 2.5% on Thursday as signs of tightening stocks in the European Union helped the contract rally for an eighth straight session, while wheat traded flat. On the Euronext rapeseed market, front-month May was 12.75 euros per tonne higher at 516.50 euros, after touching its highest since September 2012 at 519.75 euros a tonne earlier in the session.

That was not far from 526.25 euros, the highest price ever traded on Euronext rapeseed’s front-month since the futures contract was launched in 1994.