Global Ag News for May 31.23

TOP HEADLINES

Hungary Asks EU to Prolong Ukraine Grain Restrictions, MTI Says

Hungary has requested that the European Union extend import restrictions on selected Ukrainian agricultural products, MTI state news service reported.

Hungary wants restrictions, currently in place until June 5 in five eastern EU nations, to be extended “at least” until year-end, MTI said, citing Agriculture Ministry State Secretary Zsolt Feldman.

The current restrictions apply to Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower and sunflower oil shipments to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The countries have complained of a glut since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a re-routing of agriculture exports from the war-torn nation.

Hungary’s Feldman is also asking for EU financial help to clear out warehouses and make room for the summer and autumn harvests, MTI reported.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 0.97.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 32 3/4 in SRW, down 43 1/2 in HRW, down 30 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/2; Soybeans down 51; Soymeal down $10.20; Soyoil down 3.59.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 50 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 16 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 133; Soymeal down $40.40; Soyoil down 6.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 26.4% in SRW, down 12.6% in HRW, down 16.1% in HRS; Corn is down 13.1%; Soybeans down 15.3%; Soymeal down 18.1%; Soyoil down 29.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 52 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil down 200; Palm oil down 236; Corn up 12 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 198 ringgit (-5.82%) at 3205.

There were changes in registrations (-13 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,120 Soyoil; 47 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 30 were: SRW Wheat up 5,106 contracts, HRW Wheat down 278, Corn down 2,053, Soybeans up 2,189, Soymeal down 3,094, Soyoil up 6,612.

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Western Midwest: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

Eastern Midwest: Isolated showers through Saturday, mostly west. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Delta: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

The player sheet for 5/30 had funds: net sellers of 9,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 13,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 10,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• U.S. BUYS E.U. WHEAT: Buyers in the United States are believed to have last week purchased about 60,000 tonnes of European Union origin wheat expected to be sourced about half each from Poland and Germany.
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Tuesday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival July 11-25. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight. The deadline for offers is June 1.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice.

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 69% Good/Excellent

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 69% G/E vs 73% a year ago
• Corn planted 92% vs 81% last week, and 84% a year ago
• Corn emerged 72% vs 52% last week, and 58% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 83% vs 66% last week, and 64% a year ago
• Soybeans emerged 56% vs 36% last week, and 36% a year ago
• Winter wheat 34% G/E vs 31% last week, and 29% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 85% vs 64% last week, and 70% a year ago
• Spring wheat emerged 57% vs 32% last week, and 40% a year ago
• Cotton 48% G/E vs 44% a year ago
• Cotton planted 60% vs 45% last week, and 66% a year ago
• Sorghum planted 42% vs 33% last week, and 39% a year ago

US Inspected 1.313m Tons of Corn for Export, 240k of Soybean

In week ending May 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 240k tons vs 167k the previous wk, 404k a yr ago
• Wheat: 382k tons vs 440k the previous wk, 344k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,313k tons vs 1,326k the previous wk, 1,412k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 25

• Soybeans for Indonesia-bound shipments made up 67k tons of the 240k total inspected
• China was the top destination for corn inspections, Thailand led in wheat

Brazil’s biggest private port terminal to move record volumes as grain production soars

Cargo handling at Brazil’s largest private port terminal Tiplam, located at the port of Santos, is expected to grow 6.8% to a record 12.5 million tonnes in 2023, driven by the country’s record grain production and strong demand for agricultural commodities from China.

With flexibility to move sugar, soy, corn and fertilizers, the terminal’s owner anticipates challenges as corn and sugar will compete for space early in the second half.

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching Up To 15.1 Million Tns In May Versus 15.9 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 15.1 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 15.9 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 437,343 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 387,009 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.218 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.49 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.085m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.085m tons in May from 1.105m tons in April, according to AmSpec Agri.

Palm oil exports fell 1.8% m/m

Russia Farmers Halt Export Supply Awaiting Lower Duty: Vedomosti

Russian agricultural producers began to suspend wheat deliveries to exporters while waiting for higher prices after the export duty will be reduced on June 7, Vedomosti reports, citing unidentified top-managers from two companies involved in grain business.

Now exporters pay RUB 4,525.4/ton of wheat exported outside the Eurasian Economic Union; an increase in the base price of wheat, used in the calculation, should reduce the duty by RUB 1,400/ton

Wheat Piles Up in Russia

Wheat in Russia is accumulating, says Andrey Sizov of SovEcon in a note. The firm says that as of May 1, on-farm wheat stocks totaled 12M metric tons, according to government data. That’s twice as high than the five-year average, SovEcon says. “The key factor contributing to the accumulation of stocks was the record-high crop of 2022,” says the firm. “Rosstat estimates the Russian wheat crop at 104.2 million tons, which is 32% higher than the five-year average,” says SovEcon. CBOT wheat futures are leading grains lower today, with the most-active contract down 3.7%.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 11% Y/y in Season Through May 28

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 28.4m tons as of May 28, compared with 25.5m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (4.56m tons), Algeria (3.99m tons) and Nigeria (2.52m tons)
• EU barley exports were 5.93m tons, compared with 6.84m tons
• Corn imports stand at 24.3m tons, against 15.1m tons

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 3.7% in Season So Far: Ministry

Ukraine has exported 45.3m tons of grain so far in the season that began last July, the Agriculture Ministry says in a website statement.

• The total includes:
  • 15.4m tons of wheat, down 17% y/y
  • 2.6m tons of barley, down 53% y/y
  • 26.4m tons of corn, up 20.5% y/y
• NOTE: Ukraine didn’t export grain by sea around this time last year due to the war; this year it’s shipping via the Black Sea grain corridor

Half of Argentina Gets Rain to Sow Wheat, Other Half Stays Dry

The first rains of note in a year fell at the end of May in Argentina’s Pampas crop belt, paving the way for wheat planting in the east, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

• “But rains haven’t reached the west, so more than half of the Pampas are still too dry to plant wheat”
  • “The Pampas have been split down the middle”
• NOTE: With Argentina emerging from a drought, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts upcoming planting of 2023-24 wheat to expand 3% y/y
  • Better weather could increase wheat output 45% y/y and barley output 32%, bringing in $4.5b of exports to Argentina’s cash-strapped economy

Rains, Hailstorms and Gusty Winds Seen Hitting Some India States

Some areas, including Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, are expected to have rains, hailstorms and gusty winds in the next few days, according to the India Meteorological Department.

• Hailstorms seen hitting Rajasthan on Tuesday, Himachal Pradesh until Thursday, and Uttarakhand through June 2, the weather office said
  • Wind speed in some areas of Uttarakhand and Rajasthan could be as high as 70 km per hour due to the development of a cyclonic circulation, it said
  • Several parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Punjab and Rajasthan are predicted to receive rains during the next five days
• Temperatures in northwestern parts of the country are forecast to remain steady for three days, before rising by 2C-4C; they could increase by as much as 4C in Maharashtra and some eastern states during next 4 days
  • Highest temperature was 43.2C at Sambalpur in Odisha on Monday
• The monsoon has advanced into some parts of Bay of Bengal and Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Fertilizer Fill on the Horizon as Spring Fieldwork Ebbs in US

An early surge in spring fieldwork and near-term US demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten inland, yet high prices for urea, phosphates and potash are under pressure as consumption wanes and suppliers strive to empty bins. Fill pricing could reset the nitrogen market 16% lower.

 

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