Global Ag News for Nov 22nd

TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are up 17 3/4 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $0.01; Soyoil up 0.46.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.51. For the month to date wheat prices are up 67 in SRW, up 70 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 14 1/2; Soymeal up $34.10; Soyoil down 2.53.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 40 yuan ; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 128; Palm oil down 24; Corn down 12 — Malasyian Palm is down 34. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 34 ringgit (-0.68%) at 4959.

There were changes in registrations (-124 Soybeans ). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 959 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 19 were: SRW Wheat down 2,782 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,094, Corn down 725, Soybeans up 7,216, Soymeal up 3,788, Soyoil down 1,251.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday. East: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

The player sheet for Nov. 19 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Incheon section purchased about 64,000 tonnes of animal feed corn that can be sourced from any worldwide origins in an international tender which closed on Friday
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Two importer groups in the Philippines are tendering to purchase at least 130,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase about 385,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase between 48,500 and 58,500 tonnes of animal feed corn and between 8,000 and 16,000 tonnes of soymeal

CP rail expects to restore service in flood-hit British Columbia mid-week 1

Canadian Pacific Railway CP.TO estimates it will restore service in flood-damaged British Columbia mid-week, the company said in a statement on Friday.

CP rail lines have been shut down after unprecedented rain storms severed rail and road links across Canada’s westernmost province on Monday.

Malaysia’s Nov. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 1,066,899 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments rise 9% m/m from 978,917 tons exported during Oct 1-20, according to AmSpec Agri on Saturday.

Canada Cuts Its Principal Crop Export Forecast, Ups Inventories

The Canadian government increased its estimate for year-end inventories of principal field crops and lowered its export expectations, a monthly report shows Friday.

• Carry-out stocks of grains, oilseeds, pulses and special crops for the 2021-22 crop year that ends July 31 are pegged at 7.42m metric tons vs October estimate at 7.38m tons
• Total domestic use is estimated at 43.4m tons during the crop year vs last month’s estimate of 42.8m tons
• Exports are forecast to reach 36.7m tons vs October estimate of 37.4m tons
  • Estimates were made before severe flooding disrupted grain transportation to the Port of Vancouver

China’s Oct. soy imports from U.S. slump due to weak demand, hurricane

China brought in 775,331 tonnes of U.S. soybeans in October, down 77% from 3.4 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data released from the General Administration of Customs.

Soybean shipments from the United States usually pick up in the fourth quarter of the year when the U.S. harvest gets underway and American beans dominate the market.

Poor crush margins and price competitive Brazilian beans, however, have curbed Chinese crushers’ appetite for American cargoes, traders said.

Crush margins for soybeans, used in animal feed, stayed in negative territory in China’s main processing hubs for about four months until early September.

Margins have been depressed by falling pork prices, with pig farmers in Sichuan, a major producer, losing money until the end of October.

China brought in 3.3 million tonnes of Brazilian beans in October, down 22% from 4.233 million tonnes in the previous year, the customs data showed.

Total shipments for the month of October came in at 5.11 million tonnes, down 41% from a year earlier, the lowest level since March 2020.

Chinese crushers stepped up buying of beans earlier in the year, on expectations of a fast-recovering pig herd.

Increasing pig production has pushed down pork prices, pressuring crush margins and slowing shipments of soybeans.

Soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter were expected to stay at low levels, with the volume of U.S. beans below the previous year, traders said.

Ukraine grain exports jump 20.2% so far 2021/22

Ukraine has exported almost 23.8 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2021/22 July-June season, up 20.2% from 19.8 million tonnes at the same stage a year earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday.

That included 14 million tonnes of wheat, 4.9 million tonnes of barley and 4.6 million tonnes of corn, the data showed.

Ukraine plans to thresh a record 80.3 million tonnes of grain in 2021, up from 65 million tonnes in 2020. Exports could jump to 61.5 million tonnes from 44.7 million tonnes in 2020/21. (Full Story)

The government has said that grain exports could include 24.5 million tonnes of wheat, 30.9 million tonnes of corn and 5.2 million tonnes of barley.

Ukraine’s exports last season included 23.1 million tonnes of corn, 16.6 million tonnes of wheat and 4.2 million tonnes of barley.

Brazil 2021/22 Summer Corn Crop Output to Reach 25.7M MT: Safras

Corn planted area in the 2021/22 summer crop in the Center-South region of Brazil should occupy 4.38m hectares , 0.7% above that planted in the 2020/21 season, which was 4.35m hectares, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado says in an emailed statement.

• There were no changes compared to the previous survey, released at the end of August
• There should be an increase in the average productivity of the 2021/22 summer crop compared to that registered in the 2020/21 season, going from 4,973 kg per hectare to 5,867 kg per hectare, according to Safras & Mercado analyst Paulo Molinari
• In August, the average yield had been predicted at 5,827 kilos per hectare
• Production of the first crop 2021/22 in the Center-South of the cereal may reach 25.7m tons, surpassing the 21.6m tons harvested in the summer 2020/21 crop

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Halve in Week to Nov. 17: Port

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 104,633 tons in the week to Nov. 17, compared with 205,032 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Price rises lead Brazilian farmers to sell the remaining from 20/21

Cepea, November 19 – International soybean valuations and the US dollar appreciation against the Real attracted importers to Brazil, pushing up prices for the commodity in the domestic market. This scenario added to expectations for an early 2021/22 crop led Brazilian farmers to sell the remaining volume from the 2020/21 season. In the last days, the number of deals for delivery in December/21 and in January/22 was atypically higher.

According to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), soybean sowing is over in Paraná and is ending in Mato Grosso, where 1% of the estimated area still needs to be sown. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Goiás, São Paulo and Tocantins, activities are coming to an end too, with 94%, 85%, 84% and 80% of the respective areas sown.

Still according to Conab, in Piauí, sowing has reached 30% of the state area allocated to soybean crops; in Maranhão, 45%; in Santa Catarina, 59%; and in Bahia, 70%. Thus, the area sown with soybean in Brazil has reached 79.2%, more than the 69% sown in the same period last season.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the weather has hampered soil preparation and sowing this week. Although it rained in the state between Wednesday and Thursday, no rains are forecast for next weekend. Thus, according to the report from Emater/RS released on Nov. 18, soybean sowing has reached 52% of the total area estimated for RS, ahead of the 34% sown in the same period of 2020 and up from the average of the last five years (48%).

CORN/CEPEA: Real prices are the lowest since September 2020

The slow exports face for the Brazilian corn in the current season and the fast sowing of the summer crop have been pressing down corn prices in Brazil. Purchasers are currently not interested in closing deals, expecting values to decrease more sharply, while some sellers who need to make room in warehouses agree to trade the product at lower prices.

The summer crop of corn is developing well in the major corn-producing regions in Brazil. As soybean crops were sown within the ideal period, corn sowing and productivity may be favored.

In Paraná, according to the report from Seab/Deral released on Nov. 16, sowing of the summer crop of corn is over, and the output is estimated at 4.13 million tons, 33% up from that in the 2020/21 season.

In Rio Grande do Sul, data from Emater/RS released on Nov. 18 indicate that 85% of the area allocated to the first crop has been sown. Activities have been slower this week because of low soil moisture. In São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina and Goiás, 97%, 70%, 94% and 80% of the respective areas had been sown until Nov. 13, according to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply).

U.S. Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.95M Head on Nov. 1

The feedlot herd fell 0.2% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 0.3%

• Placements onto feedlots up 2.4% to 2.245m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 4.5% to 1.788m head

U.S. Beef Production Up 3.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

U.S. federally inspected beef production rises to 562m pounds for the week ending Nov. 20 from 545m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 3.4% from a week ago to 677m head
• Pork production up 1.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.8%
• For the year, beef production is 2.5% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 2.3% below