Written Commentary
TODAY – WEEKLY EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT
Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal down $0.03; Soyoil up 0.19.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 1/4 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $0.44; Soyoil up 0.92. For the month to date wheat prices are up 22 1/4 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $4.30; Soyoil up 0.91.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 20 yuan ; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 90; Corn up 21 — Malasyian Palm is up 103.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 2 were: SRW Wheat down 4,098 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,718, Corn up 12,783, Soybeans up 6,552, Soymeal up 1,581, Soyoil up 5,632.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday. East: Isolated showers through Wednesday, mostly north. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.
The player sheet for Nov. 2 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and unchanged in soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 143,396 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 4.
- SOYOIL, SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER UPDATE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking soyoil and sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender. GASC on Tuesday amended the delivery period for arrival between Dec. 25 and Jan. 15, from its original dates of Dec. 20 to Jan. 10.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Pakistan issued a new international tender to purchase around 90,000 tonnes of wheat after cancelling a previous tender seeking the same volume
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
- Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.108m b/d
- Would match a record high for weekly production in data going back to 2010
- Stockpile avg est. 20.031m bbl vs 19.925m a week ago
Barchart Forecasts Slight Production Increase for US Corn and Soybeans in Final 2021 Estimates
- U.S. Corn Production – Forecast at 15.4B bu with a yield of 182.8 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 15.0B bu of production and 176.5 bu/ac yield.
- U.S. Soybean Production – Forecast at 4.5B bu with a yield of 51.4 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 4.4B bu of production and 51.5 bu/ac yield.
- Canadian Spring Wheat Production – Forecast at 746.4M bu with a yield of 46.3 bu/ac. This compares to the AAFC’s 668M bu of production and 38.7 bu/ac yield (includes spring wheat and winter wheat, excludes durum wheat).
- Canadian Soybean Production – Forecast at 223.1M bu with a yield of 42.2 bu/ac. This compares to the AAFC’s 216.4M bu of production and 40.9 bu/ac yield.
Argentine farmers have sold 33.1 million tonnes of 2020/21 soy
Argentine farmers have sold 33.1 million tonnes of soy from the 2020/21 season, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday in a report including data updated through Oct. 27.
As of the same date last year, sales of 34.4 million tonnes of the oilseed had been registered, according to official information.
For 2021/22 soybeans sales of 2.6 million tonnes have been registered, according to official data. The exchange forecasts an 2021/22 harvest of 44 million tonnes.
Indonesia’s Deforestation Vow Spurs Focus to Replant Palm Trees
- World’s biggest palm oil producer steps up replanting efforts
- Smallholder farms key to plans to replace old oil palm trees
Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, plans to balance keeping up production of the commodity to meet demand while fulfilling its pledge to end deforestation by focusing on replanting old trees.
The industry will step up efforts to help smallholder farms — which cover 6.7 million hectares, or 75% of total oil palm plantations in the country — to replace old plants with new crops that are more productive and profitable, according to Sahat Sinaga, acting chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board.
This will help increase production of fresh fruit bunches from smallholder plantations to 22 tons per hectare a year from about 9.2 tons a hectare currently, he said. Overall crude palm oil output may rise to 64 million tons a year as a result, from 48 million tons currently.
Nutrien CEO Sees Farmers Spending Big on Fertilizer (1)
- Strong crop prices are behind bigger farmer spending
- Fertilizer costs have soared amid European energy crunch
Fertilizer demand is so strong that farmers are lining up for the crop nutrients, even as prices soar, according to Nutrien Ltd., one of the world’s largest producers.
Growers won’t be deterred by the company’s pricey products because corn is also expensive, said Chief Executive Officer Mayo Schmidt.
“We’ve had very good pricing and we’re continuing to see very good strength,” Schmidt said Tuesday in a phone interview. “Our greatest challenge is getting the tanks filled because the lineups are significant.”
Fertilizer costs have skyrocketed as high natural gas prices, a key input, forced some European production plants to halt or curtail production. That’s threatening to raise the cost of producing food at a time when energy and commodity inflation are already a concern.
Ethanol Lobby Plans to Sue EPA Over Biofuel Blending Rule Delay
Ethanol trade group Growth Energy plans to sue U.S. EPA over an alleged “failure to timely fulfill the agency’s statutory obligation” to issue proposed biofuel blending rules for 2022.
- Rules under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard for next year are due by Nov. 30
- “As of today, 28 days before that statutory deadline, EPA has not even issued a notice of proposed rulemaking to establish those obligations,” the group says in statement
- “With surging fuel costs and rising emissions, we cannot afford to hold back lower-cost, lower carbon biofuels with needless regulatory uncertainty,” Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says in statement
UAE Pledges $1b for Joint U.S. Agriculture Innovation Initiative
UAE pledged $1b of increased investment as part of the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate, a new initiative led by the gulf country and the U.S. with support from 30 governments, state-run WAM news agency reports.
- Initiative was launched Tuesday with $4b of increased investment to accelerate innovation for climate-smart agriculture and food systems over the next 5 years
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