Global Ag News for Oct 28.24

TOP HEADLINES

California Told to Speed Review of Higher Ethanol Fuel Blend

California Governor Gavin Newsom is calling for the state to speed up its consideration of allowing the sale of higher ethanol blends in gasoline, known as E15, as consumers contend with fuel price spikes.

• Newsom directed the California Air Resources Board to accelerate the authorization process “given the potential for allowing E15 gasoline to increase fuel supply and reduce gasoline prices, with little to no environmental harm,” the Democratic governor said in a letter to CARB Chair Liane Randolph on Friday
• Ethanol trade groups praised the move
• NOTE: California is the only US state that doesn’t allow the sale of E15, according to the Renewable Fuels Association

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 1.11.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal down $12.90; Soyoil up 0.65.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/2; Soybeans down 85; Soymeal down $36.20; Soyoil down 0.27.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.6% in SRW, down 10.9% in HRW, down 16.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.1%; Soybeans down 24.2%; Soymeal down 20.9%; Soyoil down 10.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 45 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 120; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 6 ringgit (-0.13%) at 4530.

There were changes in registrations (-77 Soybeans). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 25 were: SRW Wheat up 5,293 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,475, Corn up 1,289, Soybeans down 53,816, Soymeal up 1,216, Soyoil up 4,960.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Reports from Mato Grosso of rapid planting progress have meant that producers there have almost caught up to the normal pace and the continued good weather should allow that to continue. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers over the next two weeks. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch for a short time. 

Argentina: Drier conditions over the weekend continue for most of this week. Soils had gotten a big boost over the last few weeks, but that will be declining a little bit this week. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next in mostly good conditions as well. 

Northern Plains: It was dry over the weekend as drought continues to build in the region. However, several storm systems will start to pass through or nearby the region starting on Tuesday and continue through next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation, but may result in some snow in some spots. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will likely be fluctuating quite a bit in the more active pattern. 

Central/Southern Plains: It was dry over the weekend, exacerbating dry areas and reducing soil moisture for winter wheat. However, a system moving into the region on Tuesday will be the start of a chain of disturbances and systems that should keep the region active for the following two weeks. That may increase soil moisture in the region, but the likelihood of getting into the southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas is a bit uncertain. The active pattern may be more disruptive to the end of the harvest, though. 

Midwest: It was dry over the weekend. The pattern will start to get more active this week as a system moves through Tuesday through Thursday, another moves through over the weekend, and more are lining up to produce more precipitation next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern may help to reduce drought in some areas. However, turning the momentum will be tough to accomplish and this busier period will not eliminate drought or the concerns for building soil moisture before the ground freezes. 

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be extremely low, causing restrictions on transportation. The pattern is about to get much more active in the Mississippi River Basin, but there is drought widespread throughout most of it and it will be tough to turn around. Some small improvements to river levels will be possible, though.

Europe: Heavy rain fell from northeast Spain to northwest Italy over the weekend, including over some areas that had flooding occur over the last couple of weeks. That has promoted poor conditions for fieldwork and winter grain establishment, but has moistened soils quite a bit. A system continues to spin around Spain most of this week, which will help producers on the Iberian Peninsula see increasing soil moisture for their winter grains. More limited showers will cruise through the rest of the continent this week. The lack of heavy rain will be helpful in the northwest, but those in the east would still like to see some rain as it starts to dry out in more areas. 

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier-than-normal conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures, especially next week. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall. 

Australia: A front brought little precipitation to the northeast over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but with limited precipitation. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. With harvest starting up in the north, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end, but would help out the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 25 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 116,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 136,000 tons of U.S. corn to Mexico. Both were for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have provisionally purchased about 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender this week. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

 US Cattle on Feed Unchanged at 11.6M Head on Oct. 1

The feedlot herd was unchanged from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 0.3%

• Placements onto feedlots down 1.9% y/y to 2.156m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 2% to 1.698m head

 

Brazil Farmers Plant 35.9% Of 2024/2025 Soybean Expected Area Versus 39.1% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 35.9% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN EXPECTED AREA VERSUS 39.1% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2024/25 corn crop at 48 mln T, wheat at 18 mln

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

“Argentine wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is estimated at 18 million tons (MMT) with exports (including wheat flour in its wheat equivalent) at 12 million tons, slightly above USDA official. Barley production in MY 2024/2025 is estimated at 4.9 MMT, slightly higher than in the previous season, with exports at 3.3 MMT, 200,000 tons lower than USDA, but 6% higher than in MY 2023/2024. Despite a significant cut in planted area due to last year’s corn stunt attack, corn production is projected at 48 MMT, 2.5 million tons lower. Corn exports are forecast at 35 MMT. Sorghum production in MY 2024/2025 is forecast at 3.8 million tons with exports at 1.5 MMT. Rice production is forecast at 1.46 MMT with rice exports are forecast at 440,000 tons milled base.”

 

Argentina’s wheat exports could hit second-highest on record for 2024/25, exchange says

Argentina’s wheat exports could hit 13.3 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, which would mark the second-highest year on record, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday.

Some 19.5 million tons of wheat are expected to be harvested in the season, according to the exchange. The exports estimate would be only behind the 2021/22 season, which exported 15.4 million tons after a record harvest.

 

Ukraine harvests 45.1 mln T of grain so far, ministry says

Ukraine had harvested around 45.1 million metric tons of grain so far, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.

The harvest included 22.3 million tons of wheat, 5.5 million tons of barley, 465,300 tons of peas, and 15.4 million tons of corn.

The ministry said 9.5 million tons of sunflower, 3.5 million tons of rapeseed and 5.6 million tons of soybeans had also been harvested. The ministry has forecast the 2024 corn harvest at about 25 million tons and the wheat crop at about 21.8 million tons.

It expects a 2024 grain harvest of around 54 million tons and together with oilseeds has said the crop could total 77 million tons. According to analyst ASAP Agri, 2025 rapeseed harvest may fall 20% due to a smaller sowing area and poor weather.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Firm demand boosts prices; Indexes are the highest of this year

Cepea, 25 – Soybean quotations increased this week, reaching the highest levels of 2024, in nominal terms. Price rises are related to the firm demand, mainly from crushing industry, and also to the fact that sellers are away from closing trades.

Producers are focused on the 2024/25 crop; activities continue at a slower pace compared to that verified last seasons.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) upped 2.8% from October 17-24, closing at BRL 144.28 per 60-kg bag. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 2% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 141.64 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 24. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 1.8% from Oct. 17-24 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soy oil prices upped 2.6% from Oct. 17-24, at BRL 6,838.91 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Oct. 24, the highest value since January 26, 2023. The firm domestic demand boosted quotations. As for soybean meal, prices dropped 0.3% from Oct. 17-24, pressed by the low demand.

CROPS – Conab indicates that planting activities reached 17.6% in Brazil up to Oct. 20, below the 28.4% verified in the same period last year.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices continue at the highest levels of 2024

Corn prices are moving up in all regions surveyed by Cepea. Sellers continue away from closing trades, while purchasers are willing to buy new batches in order to replenish inventories.

Producers are focused on sowing activities of the summer crop, which have been favored by the return of rains.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 4.3% between October 17 and 24, closing at BRL 71.36 per 60-kilo bag on Oct. 24, the highest value since April 19, 2023 (BRL 72.76 per 60-kilo bag). In the partial of this month (up to Oct. 24), the Index upped 11%. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values moved up 2.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from Oct. 17-24.

PORTS – Increases of dollar quotations, international prices and premiums boosted values at ports, but trades remained at a slow pace. In Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP), quotations rose 8.8% and 1.8% from Oct. 17-24. Secex indicates that 23.42 million tons of soybeans were shipped from February to the partial of October, below than that in the same period last year (36.3 million tons) and also inferior to the volume estimated by Conab for this season (36 million tons).

CROPS – Up to October 20, the planting of the 2024/25 crop had reached around 32% of the area in Brazil – data from Conab

 

US Beef Production Up 2.6% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 537m pounds for the week ending Oct. 26 from 524m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 2.5% from a week ago to 623m head
• Pork production down 0.2% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 0.3%
• For the year, beef production is 0.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.5% above

 

 

 

 

 

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