by ADMIS Research Team
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly up roughly 8 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 9, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 10, Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 55 points. Grains are supported by talk China could buy 10 mmt US soybeans, 1 mmt US cotton and 20 mmt US corn. There may be China interest in US soybeans. Commodities might also be following a bounce in Crude futures.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 24 yuan in Soybeans, up 7 in Corn, up 16 in Soymeal, up 92 in Soyoil, and up 24 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 23 ringgit at 2,098 (basis July) at midsession following outside market recovery.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Significant rain and severe weather will continue to impact the Delta tonight and will impact the southeastern states Thursday; the rain will cause more flooding and fieldwork delays.
Rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity in the Corn Belt the next ten days will still promote fieldwork delays; though, some fieldwork will advance between rain events.
The most significant precipitation change in the evening’s GFS model was the increase of rain from Oklahoma into Indiana May 5 – 7.
South America Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run was notably drier in southern Brazil in the second week of the outlook, Apr. 30 – May 7
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 18,000 Corn; net bought 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 22,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 161,000 Corn; net long 4,000 in Soybeans; net long 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 14,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,200 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,000; Corn down 4,300; Soybeans up 2,700 contracts; Soymeal down 4,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,500.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 267; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
Tender Activity—Saudi Arabia is seeking 655,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 220,000 U.S. wheat—Chinese importers signed deals to buy at least three bulk shipments of U.S. soybeans this week
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended April 17th averaged 563,000 barrels per day (down 1.23% versus a week ago, down 46.3% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 27.7 mil barrels (up 0.8% a week ago, up 21.7% versus last year); corn use for the week was 55.6 mil bu (56.3 mil last week) and versus the 93.3 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
USDA COLD STORAGE REPORT APRIL 22, 2020
Total red meat supplies in freezers were down 2 percent from the previous month but up 7 percent from last year.
Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2 percent from the previous month and up 11 percent from last year.
Frozen pork supplies were down 4 percent from the previous month but up 2 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 6 percent from last month and up 34 percent from last year.
China is preparing to buy more than 30 million tons of crops for state stockpiles to help protect itself from supply chain disruptions and make good on pledges to buy more U.S. crops; China plans to add about 10 million tons of soybeans, 20 million tons of corn, and 1 million tons of cotton to its state reserves
China’s pork prices has kept retreating over the past weeks as hog production gradually picks up and starts to reverse the upward trend; according to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China’s hog production and sales have basically recovered in March, with pork prices retreating for eight consecutive weeks
- BRAZIL 2020 SOY COMPLEX EXPORT FORECAST CUT TO 91.9 MILLION TONNES FROM 93.60 MILLION TONNES – DATAGRO AGRIBUSINESS CONSULTANCY
- BRAZIL 2020 SOYBEAN EXPORT FORECAST REVISED TO 74.3 MILLION TONNES FROM 76 MILLION TONNES
- BRAZIL 2020 SOY MEAL EXPORT FORECAST KEPT AT 16.7 MILLION TNS AND SOY OIL EXPORT FORECAST KEPT AT 900,000 TNS
Suppliers of grain from Russia to other countries have in the first 22 days of April used up half of their export quota, which is calculated to last until June 30 of the current year; according to Agricultural Ministry data, exporters had used up 3.504 million tons of the planned 7 million tons.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.