Written Commentary
By Steve Freed
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 3, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 6 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 4; Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 28 cents; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil up 70 points; Crushing margins are up 5 cents, and; Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 55 yuan, up 7 yuan in Corn, up 23 in Soymeal, up 18 in Soyoil, and down 4 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 25 ringgit at 2,351 (basis August) on decision to exempt export duties on palm oil from July to December.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run shifted the swath of heavy rain associated with the remnants of Cristobal farther east; the midday model run showed the associated rain occurring from eastern Oklahoma through eastern Kansas Monday through Tuesday and this evening’s run enhanced the rain and showed it occurring mostly from Arkansas through southeastern Wisconsin; some rain will still be possible farther to the west, especially since the system will be merging with a trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S.
Last night’s GFS model run was notably wetter across much of the Corn Belt Jun. 14 – 16; some of the increase was necessary due to the potential for the northeastern edge of a ridge of high pressure to be in the region which would support complexes of thunderstorms moving along it
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; net bought 11,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 251,000 Corn; net long 24,000 Soybeans; net short 39,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 9,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,800; Corn up 3,100; Soybeans up 7,300 contracts; Soymeal down 900 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,800.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 121; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
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