Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains have turned lower. SN is down 5 cents and near 16.51. SX is near 15.07. SMN is near 412.4. BON is near 82.56. CN is down 9 cents and near 8.00. CZ is near 7.58. WN is down 20 cents and near 12.27. Overnight high was 12.75. KWN is down 30 cents and near 13.27. Overnight high was 13.79. MWN is down 16 cents and near 13.68. Overnight high was 14.12.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher and near $115 US Dollar is lower. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
The US forecast remains a concern with ongoing cold wet conditions in the N Plains, whilst hot dry conditions persist in the central and S Plains bringing further drought expansion. Canada remains cold with unwanted rain in the east but a lack of moisture in the west.
July soybeans began the week higher. May NOPA crush which at 170 mil bu and 6% more than a year ago and the 2nd largest crush ever. After the close the crop update put plantings up 18% on the week at 30% complete, still well behind last year’s 78% and the 67% average. China lockdowns appear to be slowly easing, but China’s retail sales fell 11.% in April bringing further concerns for the world economy and talk of a possible global recession. Asian markets are all trading lower this morning with soybeans reversing Monday’s gains.
July corn is lower. Mondays trade was higher following higher wheat trade. Brazil weather remains drier than normal. Trade will be watching an early frost and impact on corn. US corn exports remains 17 pct below last year. US corn plantings are 49 pct up 22 last week with biggest gains in Iowa and Illinois. Rains in north plains and warm and dry in West plains could stress crop there. Matif corn futures made new all-time highs on concerns over EU weather. UN is trying to barter an agreement to allow Ukraine exports which most doubt will happen.
Wheat futures are lower on profit taking. World wheat futures reacted as expected to the weekend ban on Indian exports with nearby US contracts seeing limit gains and EU futures spiking 75¢ before closing slightly off the highs. After the close the crop update showed US winter wheat GD/EX ratings down 2% on the week at just 27% and the worst in 26 years, whilst spring wheat plantings at 39% are way below last year’s 83% and the 5-year average of 67%.
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