Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 10 cents and near 12.28. SMZ is near 335.2. BOZ is near 61.71. CZ is down 3 cents and near 5.40. WZ is down 4 cents and near 7.47. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 7.73. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 10.17. US stocks are mixed. Crude is lower. US Dollar unch. Gold and copper are lower.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil lower. Matif wheat higher and new highs. US and China high level talks on economic and improving communications. Phase 1 expires Dec 31.
US grain futures lower. Tech based selling after SX, CZ, WZ failed to trade over key resistance. Forecast suggest good US south plains and SE US rains next week. More rain for US east Midwest.
GSI Commodity Index off new highs on lower energy prices, triggering tech selling in commodities. US Congress debating stimulus bill, higher corporate and billionaire tax increase. Still inflation worries.
Slow US export sales pace despite corn and soybean prices competitive offers resistance. There is talk that China may have bought 6-15 US soybean cargoes but still behind ly pace. US soybean harvest 73 pct. 16.7 mil acres left to harvest. Trade est exports 2020, carryout 350-415. Some est US 2022 soybean crop near 4,455 mil bu, demand 4,400, carryout near 425.
Weekly US ethanol production running 9 pct above last year. Suggest USDA could add 200 mil bu.
US corn harvest 66 pct. 26.1 mil acres left to harvest. Trade est demand 15,000, carryout 1,275. Some showers in Argentina west areas. Corn crop est at 54.5 mmt vs 50 ly, soybeans 51 vs 46 ly.
EU and Russia wheat export prices higher. Russia domestic prices higher vs export. Egypt back tendering for Nov 23-Dec 3 wheat at $358. Last purchase $350. US 2022 winter wheat crop rated 46 pct G/E. Trade range for US wheat carryout 550-640. Key exports. There are rumors that mid-East and N Africa wheat buyers may have payment problems.
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