MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 2 cents and near 12.59. SMH is near 350.6. BOH is near 58.39. CH is unch and near 5.84. WH is down 1 cent and near 8.05. KWH is up 1 cent and near 8.24. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 10.30. USDA report this week.
US stocks are higher. Less concern about Omicron and China stimulus supportive. Crude is higher. GSI commodity index gapped higher.
Dalian soybean, palmoil, soyoil and corn futures were higher. Soymeal lower.
Russia and Ukraine tension higher. Tension raises uncertainty. Biden and Putin talk today.
US south plains and Midwest dry. Temps turn colder. E Australia rains. EU normal. Russia drying. South 1/3 Braizl and NE Argentina will see mostly dry weather over nexr 7-10 days.
China Nov soybean imports 8.6 mmt. Dec-Nov 95.2 down 7 pct ly. Oct-Nov 13.7 down 25 pct ly. China soybean crush margins and hog margins improving. US diplomatic boycott of Olympics. China Foreign Minister said US will pay a price for this mistake and will take counter measures.
US soybean exports down 21 pct from last year. USDA expected to drop exports raise carryout. Trade est US soybean carryout at 355 mil bu vs 340. World end stocks 104.4 mmt vs 103.8.
Some feel that that CH nay be in a 5.60-5.90 range. Dry SA weather could push to 6.25-6.50. China bought more Ukraine corn. Taiwan bought 130 mt Argentina corn for August. US corn exports down 16 pct from last year. Cheaper South America corn lowering US exports. Trade est US corn carryout at 1,475 mil bu vs 1,493. World end stocks 304.6 mmt vs 304.4.
US wheat futures lower on new concern about World import demand. Trade watching US and Russia relations and impact conflict would have on wheat exports. Matif wheat futures ended higher on EU export pace too high. Uncertain Russia exports. US wheat exports 409 mil bu vs 495 ly. USDA could lower US export Dec 9. Trade est US wheat carryout at 589 mil bu vs 583. World end stocks 276.0 mmt vs 275.8. Some still feel KWH will find support near 8.00 and make new highs Q1 2022.
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